Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century
Open accessAbstract
Recent bursts in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide have raised concerns about the influence climate change and humans might have on future fire activity. Comparatively little is known, however, about the relative importance of these factors in shaping global fire history. Here we use fire and climate modeling, combined with land cover and population estimates, to gain a better understanding of the forces driving global fire trends. Our model successfully reproduces global fire activity record over the last millennium and reveals distinct regimes in global fire behavior. We find that during the preindustrial period, the global fire regime was strongly driven by precipitation (rather than temperature), shifting to an anthropogenic-driven regime with the Industrial Revolution. Our future projections indicate an impending shift to a temperature-driven global fire regime in the 21st century, creating an unprecedentedly fire-prone environment. These results suggest a possibility that in the future climate will play a considerably stronger role in driving global fire trends, outweighing direct human influence on fire (both ignition and suppression), a reversal from the situation during the last two centuries.
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More frequent, larger fires are predicted in Canada, the western U.S., South America, central Asia, southern Europe, southern Africa, and Australia.
“This is consistent with predictions of more frequent, larger fires in Canada, the western U.S., South America, central Asia, southern Europe, southern Africa, and Australia.10,22”
From Wildfire and the Future of Water Supply (2014) · cites this paper as [10]
The same trends of conversion from surface fire to infrequent crown fire are documented in low-and mid-elevation forests throughout the west but more slowly where productivity is lower.
“The same trends are documented in low-and mid-elevation forests throughout the west (Keane et al. 2002;Hessburg et al. 2005;Pechony and Shindall 2010) but more slowly where productivity is lower (e.g.Colorado).”
From Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management (2015) · cites this paper as Pechony and Shindall 2010
Several modelling studies have shown that increasing global temperatures could lead to increases in fire occurrence in some areas and decreases in others.
“Several modelling studies have shown that increasing global temperatures could lead to increases in fire occurrence in some areas of the globe, but to decreases in others (Scholze et al., 2006; Krawchuk et al., 2009; Pechony & Shindell, 2010).”
From The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth (2011) · cites this paper as Pechony & Shindell, 2010
Pechony & Shindell predict that in the 21st century fire activity may become controlled by increased temperature, overwhelming human ignitions and suppression efforts.
“They predict that, in the 21st century, fire activity may become controlled by increased temperature, overwhelming both human ignitions and suppression efforts.”
From The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth (2011) · cites this paper as Pechony & Shindell, 2010
Pechony & Shindell's modelling revealed a switch from moisture-limited fire activity in the pre-industrial period to anthropogenic-driven ignition regimes as the Industrial Revolution proceeded.
“While they noted high levels of uncertainty and a paucity of global data on past fire activity, their modelling revealed a switch from moisture-limited fire activity in the pre-industrial period, when human populations were low, to anthropogenic-driven ignition regimes as the Industrial Revolution proceeded in step with human population growth.”
From The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth (2011) · cites this paper as Pechony & Shindell, 2010
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“Anthropogenic ignition sources are calculated as an increasing function of population density while assuming that people living in sparsely populated regions interact more with natural ecosystems and therefore produce potentially more ignitions (31).”
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- Authors
- Pechony, O., & Shindell, D. T.
- Affiliations
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pechony, O.
- ORCID
- Shindell, D. T.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2010-10-25
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 45
- Pages
- 19167-19170
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2984177
- OpenAlex
- W2168894097
- Cited by
- 717
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 50 · 2023: 60 · 2022: 65 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 63 · 2019: 44 · 2018: 52 · 2017: 36 · 2016: 45 · 2015: 48 · 2014: 33 · 2013: 40 · 2012: 43
- FWCI
- 27.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- University of Oregon
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Keywords
- fire regimes, climate change, anthropogenic fire, precipitation, temperature, fire history, last millennium, fire suppression, land cover change, population growth, fire ignition
- MeSH terms
- Fires, Forecasting, Humans, Human Activities, Industry, Rain, Temperature, History, 21st Century, History, Ancient, Climate Change
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