Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS Program
Open accessAbstract
Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is the term used to describe the pattern of variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that is characterized by decades of basinwide warm or cool anomalies, relative to the global mean. AMV has been associated with numerous climate impacts in many regions of the world including decadal variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, hurricane activity, and sea level changes. Given its importance, understanding the physical processes that drive AMV and the extent to which its evolution is predictable is a key challenge in climate science. A leading hypothesis is that natural variations in ocean circulation control changes in ocean heat content and consequently AMV phases. However, this view has been challenged recently by claims that changing natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings are critical drivers of AMV. Others have argued that changes in ocean circulation are not required. Here, we review the leading hypotheses and mechanisms for AMV and discuss the key debates. In particular, we highlight the need for a holistic understanding of AMV. This perspective is a key motivation for a major new U.K. research program: the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS), which brings together seven of the United Kingdom’s leading environmental research institutes to enable a broad spectrum approach to the challenges of AMV. ACSIS will deliver the first fully integrated assessment of recent decadal changes in the North Atlantic, will investigate the attribution of these changes to their proximal and ultimate causes, and will assess the potential to predict future changes.
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The AMV region shows a step change in the SSTA centred on 1995, corresponding to the change to a positive phase of the AMV.
“The AMV region shows a step change in the SSTA centred on 1995, corresponding to the change to a positive phase of the AMV30.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
The 'Observed Characteristics of AMV' section (page unavailable) places the cool phase at approximately 1965–95 and the warm phase from 2000 onward, and explicitly describes a 1990s shift to positive AMV. It does not describe a step change in sea-surface-temperature anomalies centred on 1995, so that characterization is not established by the text. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredChanges in the AMV are coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), with a positive phase of the AMV associated with warmer SSTs.
“Changes in the AMV are coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), with a positive phase of the AMV associated with warmer SSTs30.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
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Self-citationCoupled Atmosphere–Ocean Reconstruction of the Last Millennium Using Online Data Assimilation
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Self-citationLocal and Remote Influences on the Heat Content of the Labrador Sea: An Adjoint Sensitivity Study
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Self-citationProjected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons
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An Investigation of the Ocean’s Role in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
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Evolving AMOC multidecadal variability under different CO2 forcings
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Self-citationInterconnectivity Between Volume Transports Through Arctic Straits
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The role of Amazon river runoff on the multidecadal variability of the Atlantic ITCZ
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Revisiting AMOC Transport Estimates From Observations and Models
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Multidecadal Variability in Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature and Its Sources
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Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy‐Driven Jet in Winter
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Self-citationOcean Heat Convergence and North Atlantic Multidecadal Heat Content Variability
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Self-citationRole of Ocean Initialization in Skillful Prediction of Sahel Rainfall on the Decadal Time Scale
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Energy Transfers between Multidecadal and Turbulent Variability
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LONG-TERM VARIABILITY OF CURRENTS IN THE SUBARCTIC FRONT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
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- Authors
- Sutton, R. T., McCarthy, G. D., Robson, J., Sinha, B., Archibald, A. T., & Gray, L. J.
- Affiliations
- National University of Ireland, Maynooth (IE)
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB)
- National Oceanography Centre (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Sutton, R. T.
- McCarthy, G. D.
- Archibald, A. T.
- Venue
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2018-02-01
- Volume
- 99
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 415-425
- ISSN
- 0003-0007 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0477
- OpenAlex
- W2736014213
- Cited by
- 117
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 4
- FWCI
- 7.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (publishedVersion)
- Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (Maynooth University) (acceptedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (acceptedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (ncas10009, NE/P006779/1, NE/N018044/1, NE/N018028/1, noc010010, NE/N006038/1, noc010012, NE/N010965/1, NE/N006054/1, NE/N018001/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic sea surface temperature, ocean circulation, ocean heat content, radiative forcing, climate change attribution, decadal variability, climate predictability, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
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