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Recent subsurface North Atlantic cooling trend in context of Atlantic decadal-to-multidecadal variability

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Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo, Chafik, Léon, Nigam, Sumant, Häkkinen, Sirpa·2018·Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
DOI 10.1080/16000870.2018.1481688
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Abstract

The spatiotemporal structure of the recent decadal subsurface cooling trend in the North Atlantic Ocean is analyzed in the context of the phase reversal of Atlantic multidecadal variability. A vertically integrated ocean heat content (HC) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index (AMO-HC) definition is proposed in order to capture the thermal state of the ocean and not just that of the surface as in the canonical AMO SST-based indices. The AMO-HC (5–657 m) index (defined over the area, 0°N–60°N, 5°W–75°W) indicates that: (1) The traditional surface AMO index lags the heat content (and subsurface temperatures) with the leading time being latitude-dependent. (2) The North Atlantic subsurface was in a warming trend since the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s, a feature that was also present at the surface with a lag of 3 years. (3) The North Atlantic subsurface is in a cooling trend since the mid-2000s with significant implications for predicting future North Atlantic climate. The spatial structure of decadal trends in upper-ocean heat content (5–657 m) in the North Atlantic prior to and after 2006 suggests a link with variability of the Gulf Stream–Subpolar Gyre system. The Gulf Stream leads variability in upper-ocean heat content over the Subpolar region by ∼13 years, and the lead increases from east to west from the Iceland Basin to the Irminger Sea to the Labrador Sea. The similarity between the structure of decadal mean anomalies, their change and trends in upper-ocean heat content and salinity in the North Atlantic and anomalies associated with a Gulf Stream index is striking. In this scheme, the displacements of the Gulf Stream–North Atlantic Current systems and their interactions with the Subpolar Gyre, as part of the meridional overturning circulation, have a decisive role for imposing decadal variability in both the Ocean and hydroclimate over the neighbouring continents.

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  • The sub-Greenland gyre SSTA variability is consistent with subsurface temperature trends (warming from the mid-80s to 2006 and cooling thereafter), with a time-lag between subsurface temperatures and subsequent surface temperature signals.

    “It is also consistent with the subsurface temperature trends (warming from the mid-80’s to 2006 and cooling thereafter), with a time-lag between subsurface temperatures and subsequent surface temperature signals41.”

    From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [41]

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  1. (self.__next_s=self.__next_s||[]).push([0,{"children":"window.__ENV__ = {\"RECAPTCHA_SITE_KEY\":\"6Le5r8IkAAAAAHMkHq5S2Em4RKx3Xyk5my0v9HnE\",\"SERVICE_CODE\":\"su-j-tadmo\",\"FRONTEND_URL\":\"https://tellusjournal.org\",\"FRONTEND_DOMAIN\":\"tellusjournal.org\",\"OJS_API_URL\":\"https://api.account.su-j-tadmo.ubiquityjournal.website/api/journal/1\"};","id":"public-env"}])This page is for printing. If you wish to read this article, please visit its full version.Recent subsurface North Atlantic cooling trend in context of Atlantic decadal-to-multidecadal variabilityAlfredo Ruiz-BarradasLéon ChafikSumant NigamSirpa HäkkinenAbstractThe spatiotemporal structure of the recent decadal subsurface cooling trend in the North Atlantic Ocean is analyzed in the context of the phase reversal of Atlantic multidecadal variability. A vertically integrated ocean heat content (HC) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index (AMO-HC) definition is proposed in order to capture the thermal state of the ocean and not just that of the surface as in the canonical AMO SST-based indices. The AMO-HC (5–657 m) index (defined over the area, 0°N–60°N, 5°W–75°W) indicates that: (1) The traditional surface AMO index lags the heat content (and subsurface temperatures) with the leading time being latitude-dependent. (2) The North Atlantic subsurface was in a warming trend since the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s, a feature that was also present at the surface with a lag of 3 years. (3) The North Atlantic subsurface is in a cooling trend since the mid-2000s with significant implications for predicting future North Atlantic climate. The spatial structure of decadal trends in upper-ocean heat content (5–657 m) in the North Atlantic prior to and after 2006 suggests a link with variability of the Gulf Stream–Subpolar Gyre system. The Gulf Stream leads variability in upper-ocean heat content over the Subpolar region by ∼13 years, and the lead increases from east to west from the Iceland Basin to the Irminger Sea to the Labrador Sea. The similarity between the structure of decadal mean anomalies, their change and trends in upper-ocean heat content and salinity in the North Atlantic and anomalies associated with a Gulf Stream index is striking. In this scheme, the displacements of the Gulf Stream–North Atlantic Current systems and their interactions with the Subpolar Gyre, as part of the meridional overturning circulation, have a decisive role for imposing decadal variability in both the Ocean and hydroclimate over the neighbouring continents.Year: 2018Volume: 70 Issue: 1Page/Article: 1481688DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2018.1481688Accepted on May 18, 2018Published on Jan 1, 2018Peer ReviewedCC BY 4.0 · DOI

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Authors
Ruiz-Barradas, A., Chafik, L., Nigam, S., & Häkkinen, S.
Affiliations
  • Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO)
  • University of Maryland, College Park (US)
Corresponding author
Chafik, Léon
ORCID
Venue
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
Publisher
Stockholm University Press
Published
2018-01-01
Volume
70
Issue
1
Pages
1481688
ISSN
  • 0280-6495 (ISSN-L)
  • 1600-0870
DOI
10.1080/16000870.2018.1481688
OpenAlex
W2846056831
Cited by
31
References
68
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 3
FWCI
2.34
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Tellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • iNcREASE project
  • US National Science Foundation (AGS1439940)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
Keywords
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, ocean heat content, upper ocean heat content, decadal variability, phase reversal, North Atlantic Current, meridional overturning circulation, salinity change

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