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Vegetation structural change since 1981 significantly enhanced the terrestrial carbon sink

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Chen, Jing M., Ju, Weimin, Ciais, Philippe, Viovy, Nicolas, Liu, Ronggao, Liu, Yang, Lu, Xuehe·2019·Nature Communications

DOI 10.1038/s41467-019-12257-8PMC PMC6751163

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Abstract

Abstract Satellite observations show that leaf area index (LAI) has increased globally since 1981, but the impact of this vegetation structural change on the global terrestrial carbon cycle has not been systematically evaluated. Through process-based diagnostic ecosystem modeling, we find that the increase in LAI alone was responsible for 12.4% of the accumulated terrestrial carbon sink (95 ± 5 Pg C) from 1981 to 2016, whereas other drivers of CO 2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (temperature, radiation, and precipitation) contributed to 47.0%, 1.1%, and −28.6% of the sink, respectively. The legacy effects of past changes in these drivers prior to 1981 are responsible for the remaining 65.5% of the accumulated sink from 1981 to 2016. These results refine the attribution of the land sink to the various drivers and would help constrain prognostic models that often have large uncertainties in simulating changes in vegetation and their impacts on the global carbon cycle.

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Fig. 1 Global map indicating the trend of LAI from 1981 to 2016. The gray color indicates non-vegetated areas and the white color denotes that the trend is statistically insignificant (p > 0.05). Positive values indicate increasing trends of growing season mean LAI and vice versaCC BY · PubMed Central

Fig. 2 Comparison of the simulated annual land sink (NEP) by BEPS and the residual land sink (RLS) estimated by the Global Carbon Project. The pink red error bars are the SDs of the annual land sink simulated using three different LAI datasets. The solid red line indicates the accumulated carbon sink simulated using three LAI datasets. For the accumulated simulated land sink* (light solid blue line), pixels with >20% areal changes in short vegetation or tree canopy are excluded in the accumulation. For the accumulated simulated land sink** (dashed red line), pixels with >30% changes are excluded. The solid dark line indicates the accumulated residual land sink estimated by the Global Carbon Project. The solid blue line is the mean of accumulated land sinks simulated by 15 TRENDY models, and the shaded gray area represents its uncertainty (mean ± SD). The shaded light yellow area represents the range of accumulated land sinks simulated using three different LAI datasetsCC BY · PubMed Central

Fig. 3 The accumulated terrestrial carbon sink from 1981 to 2016, after subtracting the baseline sink of 62.1 Pg C due to long-term changes (legacy effects). Through numerical experiments, the variations of the accumulated sink with time due to the various drivers are calculated, showing that CO2 fertilization (without LAI changes), LAI, nitrogen deposition, and climate are responsible for the sinks of 44.6, 11.7, 1.1, and −27.1 Pg C over this period, respectively. These sinks contribute 47.0%, 12.4%, 1.1%, and −28.6% to the total accumulated residual land sink (95 ± 5 Pg C) over this period, respectively. For example, the accumulated CO2 enhancement is calculated by holding other drivers at the baseline, while changing CO2 according to the global mean CO2 dataCC BY · PubMed Central

Fig. 4 Attribution of the global land sink to various factors by region averaged over the period from 1981 to 2016. The values shown are regional and global totals of mean land sinks simulated with an individual diver (CO2, LAI, nitrogen deposition, and climate) changing historically and other factors being remained temporally unchanged minus the lase sinks due to long-term changes (legacy effects)CC BY · PubMed Central

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Chen, J. M. in Comprehensive Remote Sensing, Vol. 3 (ed. Liang, S.) Pages 53–77, ISBN 9780128032213, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.10540-82018 (Elsevier, Oxford, 2017). · DOI

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Authors: Chen, J. M., Ju, W., Ciais, P., Viovy, N., Liu, R., Liu, Y., & Lu, X.
Affiliations: University of Toronto (CA)
Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application (CN)
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
Nanjing University (CN)
Corresponding author: Ju, Weimin
ORCID: Ju, Weimin
Ciais, Philippe
Viovy, Nicolas
Liu, Ronggao
Liu, Yang
Lu, Xuehe
Venue: Nature Communications
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2019-09-18
Volume: 10
Issue: 1
Pages: 4259-4259
ISSN: 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12257-8
PMC: PMC6751163
OpenAlex: W2973497171
Cited by: 492
References: 49
Citations by year: 2026: 50 · 2025: 89 · 2024: 119 · 2023: 93 · 2022: 75 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 3
FWCI: 18.14
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 (tdm)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 (vor)
Locations: Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Key R&D Program of China
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Remote Sensing in Agriculture
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
Keywords: terrestrial carbon sink, leaf area index, CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, legacy effects, carbon cycle, satellite remote sensing of vegetation, ecosystem modeling

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Vegetation structural change since 1981 significantly enhanced the terrestrial carbon sink

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