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Cited by 287Forest ecology and managementPlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsForest Management and Policy

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Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs

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Brienen, R. J. W., Caldwell, L., Duchesne, L., Voelker, S., Barichivich, J., Baliva, M., Ceccantini, G., Di Filippo, A., Helama, S., Locosselli, G. M., Lopez, L., Piovesan, G., Schöngart, J., Villalba, R., Gloor, E.·2020·Nature Communications
DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-17966-zPMC PMC7479146
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Abstract

Land vegetation is currently taking up large amounts of atmospheric CO 2 , possibly due to tree growth stimulation. Extant models predict that this growth stimulation will continue to cause a net carbon uptake this century. However, there are indications that increased growth rates may shorten trees′ lifespan and thus recent increases in forest carbon stocks may be transient due to lagged increases in mortality. Here we show that growth-lifespan trade-offs are indeed near universal, occurring across almost all species and climates. This trade-off is directly linked to faster growth reducing tree lifespan, and not due to covariance with climate or environment. Thus, current tree growth stimulation will, inevitably, result in a lagged increase in canopy tree mortality, as is indeed widely observed, and eventually neutralise carbon gains due to growth stimulation. Results from a strongly data-based forest simulator confirm these expectations. Extant Earth system model projections of global forest carbon sink persistence are likely too optimistic, increasing the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

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Metadata

Authors
Brienen, R. J. W., Caldwell, L., Duchesne, L., Voelker, S., Barichivich, J., Baliva, M., Ceccantini, G., Di Filippo, A., Helama, S., Locosselli, G. M., Lopez, L., Piovesan, G., Schöngart, J., Villalba, R., & Gloor, E.
Affiliations
  • University of Leeds (GB)
  • Ministère des Ressources naturelles et des Forêts (CA)
  • SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry (US)
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
  • Università degli Studi della Tuscia (IT)
  • Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
  • Natural Resources Institute Finland (FI)
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR)
  • Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (AR)
Corresponding author
Brienen, R. J. W.
ORCID
Venue
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2020-09-08
Volume
11
Issue
1
Pages
4241-4241
ISSN
2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41467-020-17966-z
PMC
PMC7479146
OpenAlex
W3084014090
Cited by
287
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 42 · 2025: 49 · 2024: 48 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 51 · 2021: 39 · 2020: 4
FWCI
22.89
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • UnitusOpen (Tuscia University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Jukuri (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)) (submittedVersion)
  • CONICET Digital (CONICET) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
  • Figshare (cc-by)
Funders
  • National Geographic Society
  • Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs
  • Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (NE/N012542/1, 12/50457-4)
  • Academy of Finland
  • Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
  • Natural Environment Research Council (NE/I021160/1, NE/S008659/1, NE/N012542/1, NE/N004655/1)
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest ecology and management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
Keywords
forest carbon sink, tree mortality, carbon uptake, forest carbon stocks, Earth system model projections, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions
MeSH terms
Carbon, Computer Simulation, Longevity, Mortality, Trees, Climate Change, Carbon Sequestration

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