The molecular make up of smoldering myeloma highlights the evolutionary pathways leading to multiple myeloma
Open accessAbstract
Smoldering myeloma (SMM) is associated with a high-risk of progression to myeloma (MM). We report the results of a study of 82 patients with both targeted sequencing that included a capture of the immunoglobulin and MYC regions. By comparing these results to newly diagnosed myeloma (MM) we show fewer NRAS and FAM46C mutations together with fewer adverse translocations, del(1p), del(14q), del(16q), and del(17p) in SMM consistent with their role as drivers of the transition to MM. KRAS mutations are associated with a shorter time to progression (HR 3.5 (1.5–8.1), p = 0.001). In an analysis of change in clonal structure over time we studied 53 samples from nine patients at multiple time points. Branching evolutionary patterns, novel mutations, biallelic hits in crucial tumour suppressor genes, and segmental copy number changes are key mechanisms underlying the transition to MM, which can precede progression and be used to guide early intervention strategies.
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RAS mutations, MYC translocations, APOBEC mutagenesis, and patterns of genomic complexity are the most commonly reported alterations in progressing multiple myeloma.
“Among these, RAS mutations, MYC translocations, APOBEC mutagenesis, and patterns of genomic complexity are the most commonly reported.8,9,11,69,76-83,84”
From Evolution of Multiple Myeloma from a Genomic Perspective (2026) · cites this paper as [76]
The Results (pages unavailable in our copy) link KRAS mutations to shorter time to progression, report a higher APOBEC contribution in MM than SMM, and describe changes in sub-clonal structure before progression. They also document an acquired MYC translocation in one patient, but did not find MYC translocations associated with adverse outcome in their SMM cohort. The paper does not establish that these four are the most commonly reported alterations in progression. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredEither decreased efficacy of the immune system or selection of more aggressive and fit clones will eventually allow MGUS/SMM to progress into MM.
“Either the decreased efficacy of the immune system or the selection of more aggressive and fit clones will eventually allow the MGUS/SMM to progress into MM.76,78,79,104”
From Evolution of Multiple Myeloma from a Genomic Perspective (2026) · cites this paper as [76]
The Discussion reports subclonal expansion and a proliferation advantage preceding progression from SMM to MM, supporting the selection-of-fitter-clones part of the claim. It does not establish declining immune efficacy as an alternative cause, extend that finding to MGUS, or say that all MGUS/SMM cases will eventually progress; the Results report 69.9% five-year progression-free survival for SMM. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredHigh-risk features are underrepresented among high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) compared with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM).
“Specifically, it is peculiar that these high-risk features are underrepresented among high-risk SMM compared to newly diagnosed MM.9,11,69,76-79”
From Evolution of Multiple Myeloma from a Genomic Perspective (2026) · cites this paper as [76]
The Results section ('Copy-number abnormalities and translocation frequency differs between SMM and MM'; page unavailable) reports fewer adverse-risk cytogenetic groups in SMM than in newly diagnosed MM (9.8% versus 20%). That comparison covers the SMM cohort overall, not specifically the high-risk SMM subgroup named in the claim. A separate Results passage discusses features enriched in high-risk SMM but does not compare that subgroup with newly diagnosed MM. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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Maura, F., & Bergsagel, P. L. (2024) · Hematology/Oncology Clinics of North America · doi:10.1016/j.hoc.2023.12.010 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Boyle, E. M., Deshpande, S., Tytarenko, R., Ashby, C., Wang, Y., Bauer, M. A., Johnson, S. K., Wardell, C. P., Thanendrarajan, S., Zangari, M., Facon, T., Dumontet, C., Barlogie, B., Arbini, A., Rustad, E. H., Maura, F., Landgren, O., Zhan, F., van Rhee, F., Schinke, C., Davies, F. E., Morgan, G. J., & Walker, B. A.
- Affiliations
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences (US)
- Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Lille (FR)
- Mount Sinai Hospital (US)
- NYU Langone Health (US)
- Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (US)
- Indiana University Indianapolis (US)
- Corresponding author
- Morgan, Gareth J.
- Walker, Brian A.
- ORCID
- Boyle, Eileen M.
- Deshpande, Shayu
- Ashby, Cody
- Wang, Yan
- Bauer, Michael A.
- Wardell, Christopher P.
- Thanendrarajan, Sharmilan
- Zangari, Maurizio
- Facon, Thierry
- Dumontet, Charles
- Barlogie, Bart
- Arbini, Arnaldo
- Maura, Francesco
- Landgren, Ola
- Zhan, Fenghuang
- Schinke, Carolina
- Davies, Faith E.
- Morgan, Gareth J.
- Walker, Brian A.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2021-01-12
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 293-293
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7804406
- OpenAlex
- W3119245920
- Cited by
- 128
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 15
- FWCI
- 14.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- IUScholarWorks (Indiana University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Leukemia and Lymphoma Society (6020-20)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hematology › Multiple Myeloma Research and Treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Genetics › Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hematology › Acute Myeloid Leukemia Research
- Keywords
- smoldering multiple myeloma, multiple myeloma, clonal evolution, KRAS mutation, NRAS mutation, chromosomal translocation, 17p deletion, immunoglobulin gene mutation, MYC mutations, clonal architecture, tumor suppressor, copy number alterations, time to progression
- MeSH terms
- APOBEC Deaminases, Smoldering Multiple Myeloma, Progression-Free Survival, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alleles, Clone Cells, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Mutation, Time Factors, Translocation, Genetic, Biomarkers, Tumor, Genome, Human, Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic, Multivariate Analysis, Genes, Tumor Suppressor, Proto-Oncogene Proteins p21(ras), Disease Progression, Evolution, Molecular, DNA Copy Number Variations, Mutation Rate
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