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Correlation of SARS-CoV-2-breakthrough infections to time-from-vaccine
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Abstract
The short-term effectiveness of a two-dose regimen of the BioNTech/Pfizer mRNA BNT162b2 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine was widely demonstrated. However, long term effectiveness is still unknown. Leveraging the centralized computerized database of Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS), we assessed the correlation between time-from-vaccine and incidence of breakthrough infection between June 1 and July 27, the date of analysis. After controlling for potential confounders as age and comorbidities, we found a significant 1.51 fold (95% CI, 1.38–1.66) increased risk for infection for early vaccinees compared to those vaccinated later that was similar across all ages groups. The increased risk reached 2.26- fold (95% CI, 1.80–3.01) when comparing those who were vaccinated in January to those vaccinated in April. This preliminary finding of vaccine waning as a factor of time from vaccince should prompt further investigations into long-term protection against different strains.
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“However, third (booster) doses provide a rapid and substantial increase in protection against both mild and severe disease.”
From Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern (2021) · cites this paper as [22]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Mizrahi, B., Lotan, R., Kalkstein, N., Peretz, A., Perez, G., Ben-Tov, A., Chodick, G., Gazit, S., & Patalon, T.
- Affiliations
- Maccabi Healthcare Services (IL)
- Tel Aviv University (IL)
- Corresponding author
- Lotan, Roni
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2021-11-04
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 6379-6379
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8569006
- OpenAlex
- W3209833474
- Cited by
- 261
- References
- 18
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 55 · 2022: 140 · 2021: 43
- FWCI
- 20.35
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, breakthrough infection, BNT162b2, mRNA vaccines, vaccine waning, time since vaccination, long-term vaccine effectiveness, COVID-19 pandemic, Maccabi Healthcare Services
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, BNT162 Vaccine, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Time Factors, Vaccination, Young Adult
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