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Correlation of SARS-CoV-2-breakthrough infections to time-from-vaccine
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
The short-term effectiveness of a two-dose regimen of the BioNTech/Pfizer mRNA BNT162b2 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine was widely demonstrated. However, long term effectiveness is still unknown. Leveraging the centralized computerized database of Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS), we assessed the correlation between time-from-vaccine and incidence of breakthrough infection between June 1 and July 27, the date of analysis. After controlling for potential confounders as age and comorbidities, we found a significant 1.51 fold (95% CI, 1.38–1.66) increased risk for infection for early vaccinees compared to those vaccinated later that was similar across all ages groups. The increased risk reached 2.26- fold (95% CI, 1.80–3.01) when comparing those who were vaccinated in January to those vaccinated in April. This preliminary finding of vaccine waning as a factor of time from vaccince should prompt further investigations into long-term protection against different strains.
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“However, third (booster) doses provide a rapid and substantial increase in protection against both mild and severe disease.”
From Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern (2021) · cites this paper as [22]
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Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine
Polack, F. P., Thomas, S. J., Kitchin, N., Absalon, J., Gurtman, A., Lockhart, S., Perez, J. L., Pérez Marc, G., Moreira, E. D., Zerbini, C., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2034577 · Cited by 14,592
Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine
Baden, L. R., El Sahly, H. M., Essink, B., Kotloff, K., Frey, S., Novak, R., Diemert, D., Spector, S. A., Rouphael, N., Creech, C. B., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2035389 · Cited by 10,119
Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant
Lopez Bernal, J., Andrews, N., Gower, C., Gallagher, E., Simmons, R., Thelwall, S., Stowe, J., Tessier, E., Groves, N., Dabrera, G., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2108891 · Cited by 2,889
BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting
Dagan, N., Barda, N., Kepten, E., Miron, O., Perchik, S., Katz, M. A., Hernán, M. A., Lipsitch, M., Reis, B., & Balicer, R. D. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2101765 · Cited by 2,527
Seow, J., Graham, C., Merrick, B., Acors, S., Pickering, S., Steel, K. J. A., Hemmings, O., O’Byrne, A., Kouphou, N., Galao, R. P., et al. (2020) · Nature Microbiology · doi:10.1038/s41564-020-00813-8 · Cited by 1,419
Covid-19 Breakthrough Infections in Vaccinated Health Care Workers
Bergwerk, M., Gonen, T., Lustig, Y., Amit, S., Lipsitch, M., Cohen, C., Mandelboim, M., Levin, E. G., Rubin, C., Indenbaum, V., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2109072 · Cited by 1,345
Coresh, J., Turin, T. C., Matsushita, K., Sang, Y., Ballew, S. H., Appel, L. J., Arima, H., Chadban, S. J., Cirillo, M., Djurdjev, O., et al. (2014) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2014.6634 · Cited by 988
Reduced neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617 by vaccine and convalescent serum
Liu, C., Ginn, H. M., Dejnirattisai, W., Supasa, P., Wang, B., Tuekprakhon, A., Nutalai, R., Zhou, D., Mentzer, A. J., Zhao, Y., et al. (2021) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2021.06.020 · Cited by 669
Increased resistance of SARS-CoV-2 variant P.1 to antibody neutralization
Wang, P., Casner, R. G., Nair, M. S., Wang, M., Yu, J., Cerutti, G., Liu, L., Kwong, P. D., Huang, Y., Shapiro, L., et al. (2021) · Cell Host & Microbe · doi:10.1016/j.chom.2021.04.007 · Cited by 636
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Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern
Andrews, N., Stowe, J., Kirsebom, F., Toffa, S., Rickeard, T., Gallagher, E., Gower, C., Kall, M., Groves, N., O’Connell, A.-M., et al. (2021) · doi:10.1101/2021.12.14.21267615 · Cited by 2,420
Protection of BNT162b2 Vaccine Booster against Covid-19 in Israel
Bar-On, Y. M., Goldberg, Y., Mandel, M., Bodenheimer, O., Freedman, L., Kalkstein, N., Mizrahi, B., Alroy-Preis, S., Ash, N., Milo, R., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114255 · Cited by 1,169
Self-citationWaning Immunity after the BNT162b2 Vaccine in Israel
Goldberg, Y., Mandel, M., Bar-On, Y. M., Bodenheimer, O., Freedman, L., Haas, E. J., Milo, R., Alroy-Preis, S., Ash, N., & Huppert, A. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114228 · Cited by 1,034
Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar
Chemaitelly, H., Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., AlMukdad, S., Yassine, H. M., Benslimane, F. M., Al Khatib, H. A., Coyle, P., Ayoub, H. H., Al Kanaani, Z., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114114 · Cited by 831
Duration of Protection against Mild and Severe Disease by Covid-19 Vaccines
Andrews, N., Tessier, E., Stowe, J., Gower, C., Kirsebom, F., Simmons, R., Gallagher, E., Thelwall, S., Groves, N., Dabrera, G., et al. (2022) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2115481 · Cited by 807
Metadata
- Authors
- Mizrahi, B., Lotan, R., Kalkstein, N., Peretz, A., Perez, G., Ben-Tov, A., Chodick, G., Gazit, S., & Patalon, T.
- Affiliations
- Maccabi Healthcare Services (IL)
- Tel Aviv University (IL)
- Corresponding author
- Lotan, Roni
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2021-11-04
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 6379-6379
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8569006
- OpenAlex
- W3209833474
- Cited by
- 261
- References
- 18
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 55 · 2022: 140 · 2021: 43
- FWCI
- 20.35
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, breakthrough infection, BNT162b2, mRNA vaccines, vaccine waning, time since vaccination, long-term vaccine effectiveness, COVID-19 pandemic, Maccabi Healthcare Services
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, BNT162 Vaccine, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Time Factors, Vaccination, Young Adult
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