A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate
Open accessAbstract
Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (T w ) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C T w model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to T w ~25.8–34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than T w = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.
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Air conditioning is an effective technology for reducing heat exposure.
“Air conditioning is an effective technology for reducing heat exposure.185”
From The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action (2024) · cites this paper as [185]
The Discussion (page unavailable) says artificially cooled environments may help address heat in some settings, supporting the general idea behind the claim. It does not specifically assess air conditioning or establish its effectiveness, and its wording is more qualified than the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.78)
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- Authors
- Vanos, J., Guzman-Echavarria, G., Baldwin, J. W., Bongers, C., Ebi, K. L., & Jay, O.
- Affiliations
- Arizona State University (US)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- The University of Sydney (AU)
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Vanos, Jennifer
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2023-11-29
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 7653-7653
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10687011
- OpenAlex
- W4389141827
- Cited by
- 206
- References
- 80
- Citations by year
- 2026: 72 · 2025: 83 · 2024: 50 · 2023: 1
- FWCI
- 36.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (CMMI-2045663)
- Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (2021/GNT2009507)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Keywords
- wet-bulb temperature, human thermoregulation, climate change, extreme heat, older adults, aging, sun exposure, humidity, physiological limits, heat risk assessment
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Female, Hot Temperature, Humans, Humidity, Temperature, Extreme Heat, Climate Change
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