CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 396Land Use and Ecosystem ServicesConservation, Biodiversity, and Resource ManagementEcology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 65 of the 65 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Biodiversity at risk under future cropland expansion and intensification

Kehoe, Laura, Romero-Muñoz, Alfredo, Polaina, Ester, Estes, Lyndon, Kreft, Holger, Kuemmerle, Tobias·2017·Nature Ecology & Evolution
DOI 10.1038/s41559-017-0234-3

Published version of a preprint

Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Agriculture is the leading driver of biodiversity loss. However, its future impact on biodiversity remains unclear, especially because agricultural intensification is often neglected, and high path-dependency is assumed when forecasting agricultural development-although the past suggests that shock events leading to considerable agricultural change occur frequently. Here, we investigate the possible impacts on biodiversity of pathways of expansion and intensification. Our pathways are not built to reach equivalent production targets, and therefore they should not be directly compared; they instead highlight areas at risk of high biodiversity loss across the entire option space of possible agricultural change. Based on an extensive database of biodiversity responses to agriculture, we find 30% of species richness and 31% of species abundances potentially lost because of agricultural expansion across the Amazon and Afrotropics. Only 21% of high-risk expansion areas in the Afrotropics overlap with protected areas (compared with 43% of the Neotropics). Areas at risk of biodiversity loss from intensification are found in India, Eastern Europe and the Afromontane region (7% species richness, 13% abundance loss). Many high-risk regions are not adequately covered by conservation prioritization schemes, and have low national conservation spending and high agricultural growth. Considering rising agricultural demand, we highlight areas where timely land-use planning may proactively mitigate biodiversity loss.

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41559-017-0234-3

Cites

65 of 65 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Citations

Cites

Show all 65 references

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) (UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, 2016).
  2. Wint, W. & Robinson, T. Gridded Livestock of the World (FAO: Rome, 2007).
  3. Bird Species Distribution Maps of the World (BirdLife International, Cambridge, and NatureServe, Arlington, 2015).

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Items 301–396 of 396

Related

See all

Metadata

Authors
Kehoe, L., Romero-Muñoz, A., Polaina, E., Estes, L., Kreft, H., & Kuemmerle, T.
Affiliations
  • University of Victoria (CA)
  • Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
  • Clark University (US)
  • University of Göttingen (DE)
  • Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
Corresponding author
Kehoe, Laura
ORCID
Venue
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2017-07-17
Volume
1
Issue
8
Pages
1129-1135
ISSN
2397-334X (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41559-017-0234-3
OpenAlex
W2735707112
Semantic Scholar
d50255ff8fbb433b9c5924f463659d3ec83be80d
Cited by
395
References
65
Citations by year
2026: 43 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 62 · 2022: 45 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 16
FWCI
11.94
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
Locations
  • Nature Ecology & Evolution (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Clark Digital Commons (Clark University) (submittedVersion)
  • DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
  • GRO (submittedVersion)
Funders
Einstein Stiftung Berlin
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
Keywords
biodiversity loss, agricultural expansion, agricultural intensification, land use change, species richness, species abundance, Amazon, Afrotropical region, protected areas, conservation prioritization, agricultural demand, land use planning
MeSH terms
Agriculture, Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources, Vertebrates, Biodiversity

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review