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Biodiversity at risk under future cropland expansion and intensification
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Abstract
Agriculture is the leading driver of biodiversity loss. However, its future impact on biodiversity remains unclear, especially because agricultural intensification is often neglected, and high path-dependency is assumed when forecasting agricultural development-although the past suggests that shock events leading to considerable agricultural change occur frequently. Here, we investigate the possible impacts on biodiversity of pathways of expansion and intensification. Our pathways are not built to reach equivalent production targets, and therefore they should not be directly compared; they instead highlight areas at risk of high biodiversity loss across the entire option space of possible agricultural change. Based on an extensive database of biodiversity responses to agriculture, we find 30% of species richness and 31% of species abundances potentially lost because of agricultural expansion across the Amazon and Afrotropics. Only 21% of high-risk expansion areas in the Afrotropics overlap with protected areas (compared with 43% of the Neotropics). Areas at risk of biodiversity loss from intensification are found in India, Eastern Europe and the Afromontane region (7% species richness, 13% abundance loss). Many high-risk regions are not adequately covered by conservation prioritization schemes, and have low national conservation spending and high agricultural growth. Considering rising agricultural demand, we highlight areas where timely land-use planning may proactively mitigate biodiversity loss.
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“a comprehensive meta-analysis by Sirami et al. ( 118 ) provided evidence that agricultural landscape simplification is associated with lower multi-trophic biodiversity”
From Environmental impacts of genetically modified crops (2024) · cites this paper as [118]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Kehoe, L., Romero-Muñoz, A., Polaina, E., Estes, L., Kreft, H., & Kuemmerle, T.
- Affiliations
- University of Victoria (CA)
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- Clark University (US)
- University of Göttingen (DE)
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Kehoe, Laura
- Venue
- Nature Ecology & Evolution
- Published
- 2017-07-17
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 1129-1135
- ISSN
- 2397-334X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2735707112
- Semantic Scholar
- d50255ff8fbb433b9c5924f463659d3ec83be80d
- Cited by
- 395
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 43 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 62 · 2022: 45 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 11.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Ecology & Evolution (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Clark Digital Commons (Clark University) (submittedVersion)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- GRO (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Einstein Stiftung Berlin
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Keywords
- biodiversity loss, agricultural expansion, agricultural intensification, land use change, species richness, species abundance, Amazon, Afrotropical region, protected areas, conservation prioritization, agricultural demand, land use planning
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Animals, Conservation of Natural Resources, Vertebrates, Biodiversity
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