Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
Open accessAbstract
Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when measured as caloric or protein content of all crops combined, has been a similarly increasing function of per capita real income since 1960. This relationship forecasts a 100-110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Quantitative assessments show that the environmental impacts of meeting this demand depend on how global agriculture expands. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing (extensification) in poorer nations were to continue, ~1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050, with CO(2)-C equivalent greenhouse gas emissions reaching ~3 Gt y(-1) and N use ~250 Mt y(-1) by then. In contrast, if 2050 crop demand was met by moderate intensification focused on existing croplands of underyielding nations, adaptation and transfer of high-yielding technologies to these croplands, and global technological improvements, our analyses forecast land clearing of only ~0.2 billion ha, greenhouse gas emissions of ~1 Gt y(-1), and global N use of ~225 Mt y(-1). Efficient management practices could substantially lower nitrogen use. Attainment of high yields on existing croplands of underyielding nations is of great importance if global crop demand is to be met with minimal environmental impacts.
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Scientific literature warns about environmental, social, and economic limitations of the current intensive agricultural model.
“Scientific literature abounds to warn about the environmental, social, and economic limitations of the current intensive agricultural model [1,2].”
From How Are Landscapes under Agroecological Transition Perceived and Appreciated? A Belgian Case Study (2020) · cites this paper as [1]
The Results and Discussion describe major environmental impacts of agricultural expansion, and the Conclusions warn that continuing past trends would have serious long-term environmental consequences. The paper also discusses investment needs and a more equitable food supply, but it does not establish social and economic limitations of the current intensive agricultural model as the claim suggests. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe majority of studies (47) used simulation models, 9 used statistical extrapolation, and 1 mainly used expert input.
“The majority of studies (n = 47) employ simulation models, while some use statistical extrapolation approaches (n = 9) that use regression techniques to estimate future food security 1,13 .Only one study 2 mainly used expert input to prepare the projections.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
Tilman et al. implicitly assume that food and feed have the same relationship with income per capita.
“The study implicitly assumes that food and feed have the same relationship with income per capita.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
Not accounting for potential efficiency improvements in the livestock sector might explain why Tilman et al.'s food consumption projections are nearly twice as large as those in most other studies.
“Not accounting for potential efficiency improvements in the livestock sector might explain why the food consumption projections in Tilman et al. 1 are nearly twice as large as those in most other studies.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
In contrast to most other studies that use diet projections, Tilman et al. approximate food consumption by total crop calories including food and feed, resulting in much higher per capita projections.
“In contrast to most other studies, which use diet projections, food consumption is approximated by total crop calories (including food and feed), resulting in much higher per capita projections.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
The projections in Tilman et al. cannot easily be compared with most studies in the review because of differences in approach.
“The projections in Tilman et al. 1 cannot easily be compared with most of the studies in our review because of differences in approach.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [1]
Major increases in agricultural productivity have meant that recent dramatic growth in human populations and richer diets have not translated into an acceleration of per capita demand for arable land, but rather to a stabilization or even a decline in this key indicator of human-driven environmental change.
“These major increases in agricultural productivity have meant that recent dramatic growth in human populations and richer diets have not translated into an acceleration of per capita demand for arable land, but rather to a stabilization or even a decline in this key indicator of human-driven environmental change (103, 104).”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [104]
There remain a wide array of societal challenges in adapting land systems to meet growing demands.
“there remain a wide array of societal challenges in adapting land systems to meet growing demands (104).”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [104]
Depending on location, there is still strong potential for further intensification of agricultural land use.
“Recent studies indicate that, depending on location, there is still strong potential for further intensification of agricultural land use (22, 104, 126).”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [104]
The pace of agricultural intensification is likely to remain a major determinant of future land change and our ability to meet societal demands for food, feed, housing, and energy.
“The pace of agricultural intensification is, therefore, also likely to remain a major determinant of future land change and our ability to meet societal demands for food, feed, housing, and energy (104).”
From Used planet: a global history (2013) · cites this paper as [104]
Growth of human population to 9 billion around 2050, continuing economic growth and transitions towards richer diets with a higher share of animal products in emerging economies will probably result in a growth of global food production by 60%.
“Growth of human population to 9 billion around 2050, continuing economic growth and transitions towards richer diets with a higher share of animal products in emerging economies will probably result in a growth of global food production by 60% [38,39].”
From The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment (2014) · cites this paper as [39]
To meet projected food demand in 2050, an additional 0.2 to 1 billion ha of agricultural land may be required.
“To meet projected food demand in 2050, an additional 0.2 to 1 billion ha of agricultural land may be required (Tilman et al., 2011).”
From Concepts of agricultural marginal lands and their utilisation: a review (2023) · cites this paper as Tilman et al., 2011
Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase by 50% by 2050, mainly due to an expected 70% increase in energy-related CO2 emissions.
“It is expected that GHG emissions will increase by 50% by 2050, mainly due to the expected 70% increase in energy-related CO2 emissions.4,8”
From Technologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality (2021) · cites this paper as [8]
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“Scientific literature abounds to warn about the environmental, social, and economic limitations of the current intensive agricultural model [1,2].”
BackgroundFarm Advisory Services and total factor productivity growth in the Irish dairy sector
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“Itmustalsolimititsimpactsontheenvironment(Tilman et al. , 2011; Silva et al. , 2019), biodiversity (Hallmann et al. , 2017; Stanton et al. , 2018; Brühl and Zaller, 2019) and health (Schwarzenbach et al. , 2010).”
- Authors
- Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J., & Befort, B. L.
- Affiliations
- University of Minnesota (US)
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2011-11-21
- Volume
- 108
- Issue
- 50
- Pages
- 20260-20264
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3250154
- OpenAlex
- W2013414890
- Cited by
- 7,692
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 576 · 2025: 706 · 2024: 732 · 2023: 681 · 2022: 765 · 2021: 760 · 2020: 737 · 2019: 612 · 2018: 517 · 2017: 423 · 2016: 367 · 2015: 303 · 2014: 252 · 2013: 178 · 2012: 74
- FWCI
- 142.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0620652)
- University of Minnesota
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Keywords
- global food demand, sustainable intensification, agricultural expansion, land clearing, greenhouse gas emissions, nitrogen utilization, crop yield, per capita income, food security, technology transfer, environmental impact of agriculture, 2050 projections
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Climate, Conservation of Natural Resources, Food Supply, Crops, Agricultural, Internationality, Gross Domestic Product
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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