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Deception and self-deception
Open accessAbstract
There is ample evidence that the average person thinks he or she is more skilful, more beautiful and kinder than others 1,2 and that such overconfidence may result in substantial personal and social costs 3-8. To explain the prevalence of overconfidence, social scientists usually point to its affective benefits, such as those stemming from a good self-image or reduced anxiety about an uncertain future 9-13. An alternative theory, first advanced by evolutionary biologist Robert Trivers 14-16, posits that people self-deceive into higher confidence to more effectively persuade or deceive others. Here we conduct two experiments (combined n = 688) to test this strategic self-deception hypothesis. After performing a cognitively challenging task, half of our subjects are informed that they can earn money if, during a short face-to-face interaction, they convince others of their superior performance. We find that the privately elicited beliefs of the group that was informed of the profitable deception opportunity exhibit significantly more overconfidence than the beliefs of the control group. To test whether higher confidence ultimately pays off, we experimentally manipulate the confidence of the subjects by means of a noisy feedback signal. We find that this exogenous shift in confidence makes subjects more persuasive in subsequent face-to-face interactions. Overconfidence emerges from these results as the product of an adaptive cognitive technology with important social benefits, rather than some deficiency or bias.
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“Espousing the group's beliefs serves as a form of self- persuasion, further convincing people that the views they endorse must be correct, while moving further away from intellectual humility 86-88 .”
From Predictors and consequences of intellectual humility (2022) · cites this paper as [86]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Schwardmann, P., & van der Weele, J.
- Affiliations
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Schwardmann, Peter
- Venue
- Nature Human Behaviour
- Published
- 2019-07-29
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 1055-1061
- ISSN
- 2397-3374 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3121342465
- Cited by
- 215
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 12
- FWCI
- 42.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Human Behaviour (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Open access LMU (Ludwid Maxmilian's Universitat Munchen) (submittedVersion)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Universitätsbibliothek der LMU
- Funders
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (452-17-004)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Deception detection and forensic psychology
- Keywords
- overconfidence, self-deception, persuasion, deception, belief updating, noisy feedback, self-image, cognitive biases, adaptive cognition
- MeSH terms
- Female, Humans, Deception, Male, Self Concept, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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