The DOI matches its Crossref record; 36 of the 36 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
The future of food from the sea
Open accessAbstract
Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably1. Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services2–6. As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean—wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture—to estimate ‘sustainable supply curves’ that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21–44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36–74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12–25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand. Modelled supply curves show that, with policy reform and technological innovation, the production of food from the sea may increase sustainably, perhaps supplying 25% of the increase in demand for meat products by 2050.
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Soil and human security in the 21st century
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Effective fisheries management instrumental in improving fish stock status
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Self-citationDoes aquaculture add resilience to the global food system?
Troell, M., Naylor, R. L., Metian, M., Beveridge, M., Tyedmers, P. H., Folke, C., Arrow, K. J., Barrett, S., Crépin, A.-S., Ehrlich, P. R., et al. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1404067111 · Cited by 749
Self-citationHarnessing global fisheries to tackle micronutrient deficiencies
Hicks, C. C., Cohen, P. J., Graham, N. A. J., Nash, K. L., Allison, E. H., D’Lima, C., Mills, D. J., Roscher, M., Thilsted, S. H., Thorne-Lyman, A. L., et al. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1592-6 · Cited by 736
Self-citationNijdam, D., Rood, T., & Westhoek, H. (2012) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.08.002 · Cited by 734
Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes
Costello, C., Ovando, D., Clavelle, T., Strauss, C. K., Hilborn, R., Melnychuk, M. C., Branch, T. A., Gaines, S. D., Szuwalski, C. S., Cabral, R. B., et al. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1520420113 · Cited by 684
Self-citationNutrition: Fall in fish catch threatens human health
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Self-citationMapping the global potential for marine aquaculture
Gentry, R. R., Froehlich, H. E., Grimm, D., Kareiva, P., Parke, M., Rust, M., Gaines, S. D., & Halpern, B. S. (2017) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-017-0257-9 · Cited by 541
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Cited by
van Dijk, M., Morley, T., Rau, M. L., & Saghai, Y. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00322-9 · Cited by 2,339
Kumar, R., Hegde, A. S., Sharma, K., Parmar, P., & Srivatsan, V. (2022) · Food Research International · doi:10.1016/j.foodres.2022.111338 · Cited by 209
New Trends in Biotechnological Applications of Photosynthetic Microorganisms
Dawiec-Liśniewska, A., Podstawczyk, D., Bastrzyk, A., Czuba, K., Pacyna-Iwanicka, K., Okoro, O. V., & Shavandi, A. (2022) · Biotechnology Advances · doi:10.1016/j.biotechadv.2022.107988 · Cited by 66
Metadata
- Authors
- Costello, C., Cao, L., Gelcich, S., Cisneros-Mata, M. Á., Free, C. M., Froehlich, H. E., Golden, C. D., Ishimura, G., Maier, J., Macadam-Somer, I., Mangin, T., Melnychuk, M. C., Miyahara, M., de Moor, C. L., Naylor, R., Nøstbakken, L., Ojea, E., O’Reilly, E., Parma, A. M., Plantinga, A. J., Thilsted, S. H., & Lubchenco, J.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2020-08-19
- Volume
- 588
- Issue
- 7836
- Pages
- 95-100
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W3072837421
- Cited by
- 916
- References
- 36
- FWCI
- 60.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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- Costello, C., Cao, L., Gelcich, S., Cisneros-Mata, M. Á., Free, C. M., Froehlich, H. E., Golden, C. D., Ishimura, G., Maier, J., Macadam-Somer, I., Mangin, T., Melnychuk, M. C., Miyahara, M., de Moor, C. L., Naylor, R., Nøstbakken, L., Ojea, E., O’Reilly, E., Parma, A. M., . . . Lubchenco, J. (2020). The future of food from the sea. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2616-y
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
