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Burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems and economies throughout the world during 2020 and was particularly devastating for the United States, which experienced the highest numbers of reported cases and deaths during 2020 1-3. Many of the epidemiological features responsible for observed rates of morbidity and mortality have been reported 4-8; however, the overall burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States have not been comprehensively quantified. Here we use a data-driven model-inference approach to simulate the pandemic at county-scale in the United States during 2020 and estimate critical, time-varying epidemiological properties underpinning the dynamics of the virus. The pandemic in the United States during 2020 was characterized by national ascertainment rates that increased from 11.3% (95% credible interval (CI): 8.3-15.9%) in March to 24.5% (18.6-32.3%) during December. Population susceptibility at the end of the year was 69.0% (63.6-75.4%), indicating that about one third of the US population had been infected. Community infectious rates, the percentage of people harbouring a contagious infection, increased above 0.8% (0.6-1.0%) before the end of the year, and were as high as 2.4% in some major metropolitan areas. By contrast, the infection fatality rate fell to 0.3% by year's end.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Pei, S., Yamana, T. K., Kandula, S., Galanti, M., & Shaman, J.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pei, Sen
- Shaman, Jeffrey
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2021-08-26
- Volume
- 598
- Issue
- 7880
- Pages
- 338-341
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W3195051481
- Cited by
- 190
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 58 · 2022: 64 · 2021: 11
- FWCI
- 15.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2021-12-17)
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (2027369)
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Applied Mathematics › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, population susceptibility, infection fatality rate, disease transmission dynamics, human mobility, United States
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Calibration, Humans, United States, Incidence, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Basic Reproduction Number, Pandemics
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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