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Cited by 114Pacific and Southeast Asian StudiesMaritime and Coastal ArchaeologyPleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 48 of the 48 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Early human settlement of Sahul was not an accident

Open access
Bird, Michael I., Condie, Scott A., O’Connor, Sue, O’Grady, Damien, Reepmeyer, Christian, Ulm, Sean, Zega, Mojca, Saltré, Frédérik, Bradshaw, Corey J. A.·2019·Scientific Reports
DOI 10.1038/s41598-019-42946-9PMC PMC6579762
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Abstract

The first peopling of Sahul (Australia, New Guinea and the Aru Islands joined at lower sea levels) by anatomically modern humans required multiple maritime crossings through Wallacea, with at least one approaching 100 km. Whether these crossings were accidental or intentional is unknown. Using coastal-viewshed analysis and ocean drift modelling combined with population projections, we show that the probability of randomly reaching Sahul by any route is <5% until ≥40 adults are ‘washed off’ an island at least once every 20 years. We then demonstrate that choosing a time of departure and making minimal headway (0.5 knots) toward a destination greatly increases the likelihood of arrival. While drift modelling demonstrates the existence of ‘bottleneck’ crossings on all routes, arrival via New Guinea is more likely than via northwestern Australia. We conclude that anatomically modern humans had the capacity to plan and make open-sea voyages lasting several days by at least 50,000 years ago.

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Crossref · 10.1038/s41598-019-42946-9

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Figures

Figure 1 Study region with sea levels at −75 and −85 m, potential northern and southern routes indicated by blue lines. Site numbers used in this study indicated in red hexagons, red arrows indicate the directions of modelled crossings. Numbers beside each red arrow indicates the number of scenarios with visibility. 4 = visibility across all scenarios (inner and outer, −75 and −85 m sea levels; see methods for definitions); 0 = no visibility for any scenario.
Figure 1 Study region with sea levels at −75 and −85 m, potential northern and southern routes indicated by blue lines. Site numbers used in this study indicated in red hexagons, red arrows indicate the directions of modelled crossings. Numbers beside each red arrow indicates the number of scenarios with visibility. 4 = visibility across all scenarios (inner and outer, −75 and −85 m sea levels; see methods for definitions); 0 = no visibility for any scenario.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 2 Examples of drift modelling results for sites on the northern route. Due to overlap between sites, only three random results are shown and the optimal results for site 7 are omitted. Percentage of successful arrivals also shown for each site and scenario. Results for all sites are shown individually in Supplementary Figs 5–21.
Figure 2 Examples of drift modelling results for sites on the northern route. Due to overlap between sites, only three random results are shown and the optimal results for site 7 are omitted. Percentage of successful arrivals also shown for each site and scenario. Results for all sites are shown individually in Supplementary Figs 5–21.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 3 Examples of drift modelling results for sites on the southern route. Due to overlap between sites, only three random results are shown. Percentage of successful arrivals also shown for each site and scenario. Results for all sites are shown individually in Supplementary Figs 5–21.
Figure 3 Examples of drift modelling results for sites on the southern route. Due to overlap between sites, only three random results are shown. Percentage of successful arrivals also shown for each site and scenario. Results for all sites are shown individually in Supplementary Figs 5–21.CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 4 Dependence of journey time and arrival potential on assumed paddling speed, shown for site 8, using the same weeks used in the optimal scenario to undertake the voyage. The 82.6% successful arrivals with no paddling at an optimal time, represent a subset of the 25.1% random arrivals that occur across a full year (Supplementary Fig. 12).
Figure 4 Dependence of journey time and arrival potential on assumed paddling speed, shown for site 8, using the same weeks used in the optimal scenario to undertake the voyage. The 82.6% successful arrivals with no paddling at an optimal time, represent a subset of the 25.1% random arrivals that occur across a full year (Supplementary Fig. 12).CC BY · PubMed Central
Figure 5 Contour graph of the probability of reaching Sahul (Pr(Sahul)) according to the northern (top) and southern (bottom) routes relative to the size of the groups of adults washed off the island (event size) and the annual probability of being washed off (Pr(event)) based on the combined demographic-random drift models.
Figure 5 Contour graph of the probability of reaching Sahul (Pr(Sahul)) according to the northern (top) and southern (bottom) routes relative to the size of the groups of adults washed off the island (event size) and the annual probability of being washed off (Pr(event)) based on the combined demographic-random drift models.CC BY · PubMed Central

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. O’Connell, J. F, Allen, J. & Hawkes, K. Pleistocene Sahul and the origins of seafaring. The Global Origins and Development of Seafaring, eds Anderson, A., Barrett, J. H., Boyle, K. V. (McDonald Institute of Archaeological Research, Cambridge), pp 57–68 (2010).
  2. Bellwood, P. et al. 35,000 years of prehistory in the northern Moluccas. In Bartstra, G. J. (ed.). Bird’s head approaches, Irian Jaya studies, a programme for interdisciplinary research. Modern Quaternary Research in Southeast Asia. 15, 233–275 (1998).

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Metadata

Authors
Bird, M. I., Condie, S. A., O’Connor, S., O’Grady, D., Reepmeyer, C., Ulm, S., Zega, M., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C. J. A.
Affiliations
  • James Cook University (AU)
  • CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
  • Australian National University (AU)
  • Flinders University (AU)
Corresponding author
Bird, Michael I.
ORCID
Venue
Scientific Reports
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2019-06-17
Volume
9
Issue
1
Pages
8220-8220
ISSN
2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1038/s41598-019-42946-9
PMC
PMC6579762
OpenAlex
W2953120749
Cited by
114
References
48
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 5
FWCI
79.77
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
  • Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
  • ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
Department of Education and Training | Australian Research Council (CE170100015, FL140100044, FT120100656)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology (arts and humanities) › Maritime and Coastal Archaeology
  • Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology
Keywords
Wallacea, population projections, sea-level lowstand, anatomically modern humans, New Guinea, northwestern Australia, Aru Islands, human dispersal
MeSH terms
Archaeology, Australia, Humans, New Guinea, Oceans and Seas, Human Migration

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