The DOI matches its Crossref record; 48 of the 48 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Early human settlement of Sahul was not an accident
Open accessAbstract
The first peopling of Sahul (Australia, New Guinea and the Aru Islands joined at lower sea levels) by anatomically modern humans required multiple maritime crossings through Wallacea, with at least one approaching 100 km. Whether these crossings were accidental or intentional is unknown. Using coastal-viewshed analysis and ocean drift modelling combined with population projections, we show that the probability of randomly reaching Sahul by any route is <5% until ≥40 adults are ‘washed off’ an island at least once every 20 years. We then demonstrate that choosing a time of departure and making minimal headway (0.5 knots) toward a destination greatly increases the likelihood of arrival. While drift modelling demonstrates the existence of ‘bottleneck’ crossings on all routes, arrival via New Guinea is more likely than via northwestern Australia. We conclude that anatomically modern humans had the capacity to plan and make open-sea voyages lasting several days by at least 50,000 years ago.
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“Nonetheless, the current fossil and archaeological records, together mounting genetic evidence from across ISEA, point to the widespread presence of archaic hominins east of Wallace's Line 26 , and indicate that the first AMH populations to arrive in ISEA most likely encountered a variety of hominin populations, no matter which route they took to enter Sahul 4752 .”
From Widespread Denisovan ancestry in Island Southeast Asia but no evidence of substantial super-archaic hominin admixture (2021) · cites this paper as [52]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Our resulting network explicitly identifies vectors of connectivity among regions that have so far only been qualitatively inferred from linguistic 57,58 , genetic 59,60 , or archaeological 24,27,28 data (although see recent work by Pedro et al. 61 that suggested vectors of connectivity); our findings are complimentary to these studies.”
From Landscape rules predict optimal superhighways for the first peopling of sahul (2021) · cites this paper as [28]
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“explaining how people likely traversed the large and diverse continent of Sahul once they arrived so far remains largely speculative 28 .”
From Landscape rules predict optimal superhighways for the first peopling of sahul (2021) · cites this paper as [28]
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Citations
Cites
Human occupation of northern Australia by 65,000 years ago
Clarkson, C., Jacobs, Z., Marwick, B., Fullagar, R., Wallis, L., Smith, M., Roberts, R. G., Hayes, E., Lowe, K., Carah, X., et al. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature22968 · Cited by 1,185
Frankham, R., Bradshaw, C. J. A., & Brook, B. W. (2014) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2013.12.036 · Cited by 1,162
Self-citationLongevity Among Hunter‐ Gatherers: A Cross‐Cultural Examination
Gurven, M., & Kaplan, H. (2007) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00171.x · Cited by 670
Direct estimates of the Indonesian Throughflow entering the Indian Ocean: 2004–2006
Janet Sprintall, A., Wijffels, S., Molcard, R., & Jaya, I. (2009) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2008jc005257 · Cited by 550
Growth rates and life histories in twenty‐two small‐scale societies
Walker, R. S., Gurven, M., Hill, K. R., Migliano, A. B., Chagnon, N. A., de Souza, R., Djurovic, G., HAMES, R. B., Hurtado, A. M., Kaplan, H. S., et al. (2006) · American Journal of Human Biology · doi:10.1002/ajhb.20510 · Cited by 436
Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2
Goosse, H., Brovkin, V. A., Fichefet, T., Haarsma, R., Huybrechts, P., Jongma, J. I., Mouchet, A., Selten, F., Barriat, P.-Y., Campin, J., et al. (2010) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-3-603-2010 · Cited by 386
Aboriginal mitogenomes reveal 50,000 years of regionalism in Australia
Tobler, R., Rohrlach, A. B., Soubrier, J., Bover, P. R., Llamas, B., Tuke, J., Bean, N. G., Abdullah-Highfold, A., Agius, S., O’Donoghue, A., et al. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature21416 · Cited by 376
A Competing‐Risk Model for Animal Mortality
Siler, W. (1979) · Ecology · doi:10.2307/1936612 · Cited by 368
Rethinking the dispersal of Homo sapiens out of Africa
Groucutt, H. S., Petraglia, M. D., Bailey, G. N., Scerri, E. M. L., Parton, A., Clark‐Balzan, L., Jennings, R. P., Lewis, L., Blinkhorn, J., Drake, N., et al. (2015) · Evolutionary Anthropology Issues News and Reviews · doi:10.1002/evan.21455 · Cited by 334
Defining the ‘generalist specialist’ niche for Pleistocene Homo sapiens
Roberts, P., & Stewart, B. A. (2018) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-018-0394-4 · Cited by 300
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- O’Connell, J. F, Allen, J. & Hawkes, K. Pleistocene Sahul and the origins of seafaring. The Global Origins and Development of Seafaring, eds Anderson, A., Barrett, J. H., Boyle, K. V. (McDonald Institute of Archaeological Research, Cambridge), pp 57–68 (2010).
- Bellwood, P. et al. 35,000 years of prehistory in the northern Moluccas. In Bartstra, G. J. (ed.). Bird’s head approaches, Irian Jaya studies, a programme for interdisciplinary research. Modern Quaternary Research in Southeast Asia. 15, 233–275 (1998).
Cited by
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Roberts, P., Louys, J., Zech, J., Shipton, C., Kealy, S., Carro, S. S., Hawkins, S., Boulanger, C., Marzo, S., Fiedler, B., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15969-4 · Cited by 111
Self-citationStochastic models support rapid peopling of Late Pleistocene Sahul
Bradshaw, C. J. A., Norman, K., Ulm, S., Williams, A. N., Clarkson, C., Chadœuf, J., Lin, S. C., Jacobs, Z., Roberts, R. G., Bird, M. I., et al. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21551-3 · Cited by 58
Self-citationGenome of a middle Holocene hunter-gatherer from Wallacea
Carlhoff, S., Duli, A., Nägele, K., Nur, M., Skov, L., Sumantri, I., Oktaviana, A. A., Hakim, B., Burhan, B., Syahdar, F. A., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03823-6 · Cited by 107
Papuan mitochondrial genomes and the settlement of Sahul
Pedro, N., Brucato, N., Fernandes, V., André, M., Saag, L., Pomat, W., Besse, C., Boland, A., Deleuze, J.-F., Clarkson, C., et al. (2020) · Journal of Human Genetics · doi:10.1038/s10038-020-0781-3 · Cited by 48
Forty-thousand years of maritime subsistence near a changing shoreline on Alor Island (Indonesia)
Kealy, S., O’Connor, S., Mahirta, M., Sari, D. M., Shipton, C., Langley, M. C., Boulanger, C., Kaharudin, H. A. F., Patridina, E. P. B. G. G., Algifary, M. A., et al. (2020) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106599 · Cited by 91
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Bird, M. I., Condie, S. A., O’Connor, S., O’Grady, D., Reepmeyer, C., Ulm, S., Zega, M., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C. J. A.
- Affiliations
- James Cook University (AU)
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Flinders University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Bird, Michael I.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2019-06-17
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 8220-8220
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6579762
- OpenAlex
- W2953120749
- Cited by
- 114
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 5
- FWCI
- 79.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Department of Education and Training | Australian Research Council (CE170100015, FL140100044, FT120100656)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology (arts and humanities) › Maritime and Coastal Archaeology
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology
- Keywords
- Wallacea, population projections, sea-level lowstand, anatomically modern humans, New Guinea, northwestern Australia, Aru Islands, human dispersal
- MeSH terms
- Archaeology, Australia, Humans, New Guinea, Oceans and Seas, Human Migration
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