Landscape rules predict optimal superhighways for the first peopling of Sahul

Probably not a substantial claim.

Explaining how people likely traversed the large and diverse continent of Sahul once they arrived remains largely speculative.

“explaining how people likely traversed the large and diverse continent of Sahul once they arrived so far remains largely speculative 28 .”

• cites [28] Bird, M. I. et al. Early human settlement of Sahul was not an accident. Sci. Rep. 9, 8220 (2019). sourceCould not verify

  The Introduction discusses debated routes from Sunda to Sahul, and the Discussion evaluates the sea crossings needed to reach Sahul. Neither addresses how people traversed the continent after arrival or says that reconstructing those movements remains speculative (searched for post-arrival dispersal and movement across Sahul). (LLM, conf=0.72)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

The lack of pathways approaching the Willandra Lakes system reflects the lack of forcing the model to conform to expectations, and rather allowing the paths to emerge parsimoniously from empirical data.

“As our modelled freshwater comes from the Water Observations from Space dataset 51 , the lack of pathways approaching the Willandra Lakes system reflects the lack of forcing the model to conform to expectations, and rather allowing the paths to emerge parsimoniously from empirical data.”

• cites [51] Kemp, J., Pietsch, T., Gontz, A. & Olley, J. Lacustrine–fluvial interactions in Australia’s Riverine Plains. Quat. Sci. Rev. 166, 352–362 (2017). sourceCould not verify

  The citation is attached to the Water Observations from Space dataset, but the retrieved passages from the cited paper’s §2.1 discuss aerial photographs and Google Earth imagery, not that dataset. The paper’s §3.1 traces an ancient channel to the Willandra Lakes; it does not address the citing authors’ model, its missing pathways, or whether those pathways emerged without forcing. Searches for the dataset name and the model-forcing claim found no passage supporting either attribution. (LLM, conf=0.76)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

It may state two separate claims as one.

From the 'northern route' entry into the modern western tip of New Guinea, the main movement corridor is along the southern slopes of the New Guinea highlands (p = 0.9112) linking to southern Sahul via the then-exposed Torres Strait region (p = 0.9171).

“From the 'northern route' entry 27,47 (Fig. 3) into the modern western tip of New Guinea, the main movement corridor is along the southern slopes of the New Guinea highlands (p = 0.9112) linking to southern Sahul via the then-exposed Torres Strait region (p = 0.9171).”

• cites [27] Norman, K. et al. An early colonisation pathway into northwest Australia 70-60,000 years ago. Quat. Sci. Rev. 180, 229–239 (2018). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [47] Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J.-C. & Scheffer, M. Future of the human climate niche. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 11350–11355 (2020). sourceCould not verify

  The Results section on projected change discusses shifts in the global human climate niche, not prehistoric movement through New Guinea or Sahul. Searches for the northern route, Torres Strait, and the stated probabilities found no passage in our copy addressing the claimed corridor. (LLM, conf=0.78)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim.

Genomic research analyses of movements of people across Eurasia and elsewhere are constrained by the availability of underlying data and the temporal resolution of the genetic process underlying the patterns.

“Genomic research has shed some light on movements of people across Eurasia and elsewhere 14 ; however, even these analyses are constrained by the availability of underlying data and the temporal resolution of the genetic process underlying the patterns.”

• cites [14] Nielsen, R. et al. Tracing the peopling of the world through genomics. Nature 541, 302–310 (2017). sourceSupported

It may state two separate claims as one.

Many of the predicted corridors are now located on the flooded continental shelf, making prospection of these routes challenging, although not impossible with the use of modern technologies.

“Many of the predicted corridors are now located on the flooded continental shelf, making prospection of these routes challenging, although not impossible with the use of modern technologies 66,72,73 .”

• cites [66] Robertson, S. Significance of baler shell (Melo) at Olympic Dam, South Australia. J. Anthropol. Soc. South Aust. 36, 1–11 (2012).Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [72] Binford, L. R. The archaeology of place. J. Anthropol. Archaeol. 1, 5–31 (1982). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [73] Benjamin, J. et al. Aboriginal artefacts on the continental shelf reveal ancient drowned cultural landscapes in northwest Australia. PLoS ONE 15, e0233912 (2020). sourcePartly supported

  The Introduction describes formerly exposed continental-shelf landscapes as potential settings for human dispersal, and the Discussion says underwater searches are costly and challenging but feasible with predictive modelling and remote-sensing technologies. The paper does not identify the citing document’s predicted corridors or establish that many of those particular routes lie on the flooded shelf. The indexed passages provide section labels but no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim.

Spatio-temporal analysis of radiocarbon dates and agent-based/cellular-automaton models frequently have to make assumptions about demographics and speed of dispersal.

“While increasingly complex analytical approaches are being adopted to fill the gaps among rare spatial data, such as spatio-temporal analysis of radiocarbon dates 15 and agent-based/cellular-automaton models 5,[16][17][18][19] , such models frequently have to make assumptions about demographics and speed of dispersal.”

• cites [15] Crema, E. R., Habu, J., Kobayashi, K. & Madella, M. Summed probability distribution of 14C dates suggests regional divergences in the population dynamics of the Jomon Period in eastern Japan. PLoS ONE 11, e0154809 (2016). sourceSupported
• cites 5,[16][17][18][19]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

It may state two separate claims as one.

Humans are capable of switching food sources when required, migrating to more favourable environments quickly as the need arises, and adapting to changing environmental conditions.

“Humans are capable not only of switching food sources when required [2][3][4] , but also of migrating to more favourable environments quickly as the need arises 5 , and adapting to changing environmental conditions 6 .”

• cites [2] Dunne, J. A. et al. The roles and impacts of human hunter-gatherers in North Pacific marine food webs. Sci. Rep. 6, 21179 (2016). sourceSupported
• cites [3] Crabtree, S. A., Bird, D. W. & Bird, R. B. Subsistence transitions and the simplification of ecological networks. Nat. Hum. Behav. 47, 165–177 (2019). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [4] Crabtree, S. A., Vaughn, L. J. S. & Crabtree, N. T. Reconstructing ancestral Pueblo food webs in the southwestern United States. J. Archaeol. Sci. 81, 116–127 (2017). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [5] Romanowska, I., Gamble, C., Bullock, S. & Sturt, F. Dispersal and the Movius line: testing the effect of dispersal on population density through simulation. Quat. Int. 431, 53–63 (2017). sourcePartly supported

  The Abstract discusses early hominin dispersal out of Africa and models population movement alongside changing vegetation. It does not establish that humans migrated quickly to more favourable environments as needs arose. Citation 5 is attached to the migration clause, not the separate claims about food sources or adaptation. (LLM, conf=0.78)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites [6] Grothmann, T. & Patt, A. Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Glob. Environ. Change 15, 199–213 (2005). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

It may state two separate claims as one.

River avulsion after the Last Glacial Maximum led to the irreversible drying of what were permanent waterbodies during the period of early human arrival at Willandra Lakes, which accounts for the lack of pathways revealed by our model in this area.

“In the case of Willandra Lakes, river avulsion after the Last Glacial Maximum led to the irreversible drying of what were permanent waterbodies during the period of early human arrival, which accounts for the lack of pathways revealed by our model in this area [48][49][50] .”

• cites [48] Bradshaw, C. J. A. et al. Minimum founding populations for the first peopling of Sahul. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1057–1063 (2019). sourceCould not verify

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites [49] Bowler, J. M. et al. New ages for human occupation and climatic change at Lake Mungo, Australia. Nature 421, 837–840 (2003). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites [50] Fitzsimmons, K. E., Stern, N. & Murray-Wallace, C. V. Depositional history and archaeology of the central Lake Mungo lunette, Willandra Lakes, southeast Australia. J. Archaeol. Sci. 41, 349–364 (2014). sourcePartly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

The aggregate viewshed application applied at a continental scale is the first time such an application has been applied at a continental scale.

“this is the first time such an application has been applied at a continental scale 86 .”

• cites [86] Looney, D. P. et al. Metabolic costs of military load carriage over complex terrain. Mil. Med. 183, e357–e362 (2018). sourceCould not verify

  The Complex Terrain Course section describes a 2.5-km military load-carriage course in Natick, MA, not a continental-scale viewshed analysis. Searches for “aggregate viewshed” and “viewshed application at a continental scale” found no passage addressing the claimed first-of-its-kind application. Page numbers were not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.78)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Ages were quality-rated largely following the protocol developed by Rodríguez-Rey et al. for evaluation of ages associated with Sahul megafauna deposits.

“We quality-rated ages largely following the protocol developed by Rodríguez-Rey et al. 98 for evaluation of ages associated with Sahul megafauna deposits.”

• cites [98] Wood, R. et al. Towards an accurate and precise chronology for the colonization of Australia: the example of Riwi, Kimberley, Western Australia. PLoS ONE 11, e0160123 (2016). sourceCould not verify

  Sections 2.1–2.2 describe radiocarbon pretreatment and checks on the Riwi ages, while section 3.5 reports OSL age estimates; no page numbers are available in our copy. Searches for Rodríguez-Rey, quality-rating protocols, and Sahul megafauna deposits found no passage addressing the attributed protocol. (LLM, conf=0.75)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Riwi Rockshelter has an OSL age on quartz of 51,300 ± 2,300 years.

“Riwi Rockshelter Riwi-36 51300 2300 Quartz grains Quartz (180-212 microns) Sq. 1, wall East, SU12 OSL m C Wood et al. 2016”

• cites Wood et al. 2016 sourceSupported

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

The authors deviated from the Rodríguez-Rey et al. approach in accepting charcoal ages pretreated with acid-base oxidation (ABOx) as 'm*' (rather than 'm') and acid-base-acid (ABA) or acid-alkali-acid (AAA) as 'm' (rather than 'B').

“We deviated from the Rodríguez-Rey et al. 98 approach in accepting charcoal ages pretreated with acid-base oxidation (ABOx) as 'm*' (rather than 'm') and acid-base-acid (ABA) or acid-alkali-acid (AAA) as 'm' (rather than 'B').”

• cites [98] Wood, R. et al. Towards an accurate and precise chronology for the colonization of Australia: the example of Riwi, Kimberley, Western Australia. PLoS ONE 11, e0160123 (2016). sourceCould not verify

  Section 2.1 describes ABOx-SC and ABA charcoal pretreatments, and Section 2.2 compares the resulting ages, but neither passage assigns ages the labels ‘m*’, ‘m’, or ‘B’. Searches for those labels and for Rodríguez-Rey found no passage establishing the classification approach or the stated deviation from it. The indexed passages provide no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.76)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

It may state two separate claims as one.

Estimates of kcalt at slow speeds on downhill slopes sometimes under-predict actual expenditure, so a sex-specific alternative estimate, kcala, is calculated.

“Estimates of kcalt at slow speeds on downhill slopes sometimes under-predict actual expenditure 93 , so a sex-specific alternative estimate, kcala, is calculated using the Mifflin St. Jeor basal metabolic rate equation 95,96 and a scale factor:”

• cites [93] Williams, A. N., Ulm, S., Smith, M. & Reid, J. AustArch: a database of 14C and non-14C ages from archaeological sites in Australia—composition, compilation and review. Internet Archaeol. https://doi.org/10.11141/ia.36.6 (2014). sourceCould not verify

  The Scope and Background sections (p. 2) describe a database of archaeological ages, not estimates of energy expenditure. Searches for downhill walking, kcalt, kcala, and the Mifflin St. Jeor equation found no passage in our copy addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.77)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

It may state two separate claims as one.

This super-highway runs east-west toward the south-eastern highlands through the northern Murray-Darling River system, close to well-documented early sites near Menindee Lakes.

“This super-highway runs east-west toward the south-eastern highlands through the northern Murray-Darling River system, close to well-documented early sites near Menindee Lakes (ML, Fig. 3).”

It may state two separate claims as one.

From the southern Torres Strait region this corridor bifurcates, one corridor linking to Arnhem Land (p > 0.9999) around the northern shore of Lake Carpentaria, the other linking to south-eastern Sahul offshore of the modern eastern coastline (p = 0.9827).

“From the southern Torres Strait region this corridor bifurcates, one corridor linking to Arnhem Land (p > 0.9999) around the northern shore of Lake Carpentaria, the other linking to south-eastern Sahul offshore of the modern eastern coastline (p = 0.9827).”

It may state two separate claims as one.

A corridor through southern Sahul passes close (20-50 km, a long day of walking) to known ≥ 35,000 year-old archaeological sites, including Devils Lair (Margaret River), Koonalda Cave (Nullarbor) and Warratyi rock shelter (Flinders Range), linking the southwest and southeast of the continent along the southern coast (p = 0.9709), close to the modern coastline.

“A corridor through southern Sahul also passes close (20-50 km, a long day of walking) to known ≥ 35,000 year-old archaeological sites, including Devils Lair (Margaret River), Koonalda Cave (Nullarbor) and Warratyi rock shelter (Flinders Range), linking the southwest and southeast of the continent along the southern coast (p = 0.9709), close to the modern coastline.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

A more diffuse network of lower-ranked corridors crosses north-eastern Sahul (p = 0.5061) and south-western (p = 0.5274) Sahul and its northernmost coast (p = 0.5484).

“A more diffuse network of lower-ranked corridors crosses north-eastern Sahul (p = 0.5061)-aligning with ecological refuges centred on Lawn Hill and Gregory River systems-and south-western (p = 0.5274) Sahul and its northernmost coast (p = 0.5484).”

It may state two separate claims as one.

The super-highways that emerge from our models are both the least-calorically costly and most 'attractive' paths, while also corresponding most closely to known early archaeological sites.

“The super-highways that emerge from our models (Fig. 3) are both the least-calorically costly and most 'attractive' paths, while also corresponding most closely to known early archaeological sites.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

The first model (wBICa=0.2644) corresponds to a scenario of moving from the coasts inland, while the second model (wBICa=0.2122) focuses on transecting the interior.

“The first model (wBICa=0.2644)corresponds to a scenario of moving from the coasts inland, while the second model (wBICa=0.2122)focuses on transecting the interior.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

Including the model with the third-most explanatory power (wBICa=0.0984), which has routes connecting known water sources and brings total explanatory power up to 0.575, our models suggest a strategy of first moving inland, then discovering water sources in the interior, then travelling among them, all while navigating by prominent landscape features.

“Including the model with the third-most explanatory power (wBICa=0.0984),which has routes connecting known water sources and brings total explanatory power up to 0.575, our models suggest a strategy of first moving inland, then discovering water sources in the interior, then travelling among them, all while navigating by prominent landscape features.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

Several highly ranked 'super-highways' are clearly visible, both around the continental margin (p = 0.9947) and through the continental interior (p = 0.9729).

“Several highly ranked 'super-highways' are clearly visible (Fig. 3, Supplementary Figures 567, Table 1; see Methods), both around the continental margin (probability of choosing path p = 0.9947) and, perhaps more unexpectedly, through the continental interior (p = 0.9729).”

Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

Foraging decisions would be highly local and provide fewer constraints to a continent-wide model than search for fresh water would.

“From our ethnographic work we determined that foraging decisions would be highly local and provide fewer constraints to a continent-wide model than search for fresh water would.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

The study generated more than 125 billion paths to examine the peopling of Sahul.

“Combined, we generated more than 125 billion paths to examine peopling of Sahul.”

Probably not a substantial claim.

Model-averaged pathway probability was calculated from ~125 billion paths across the continent of Sahul.

“Model-averaged pathway probability calculated from ~ 125 billion paths across the continent of Sahul.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Test runs with spacings from 10 to 100 showed that normalised outputs at densities greater than 50 did not contain enough new information to justify the substantial computational resources required to create them.

“We did test runs with spacings that ranged from 10 to 100, with the resulting normalised outputs not containing enough new information at densities > 50 to justify the substantial computational resources required to create them (38,380 points total).”

It may state two separate claims as one.

The top-ranked model was coastline-to-grid with prominence weighting at the 1% threshold, with BICa 4.2330, wBICa 0.2644, and p = 0.9913.

“1 coastline grid prominence 1 0.0012 4.2330 0.2644 0.9913”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

This ecological versatility has enabled our rapid global expansion without requiring expensive evolutionary adaptation to micro-environments or even extensive technological modifications.

“This ecological versatility 7 has enabled our rapid global expansion without requiring expensive evolutionary adaptation to micro-environments or even extensive technological modifications.”

• cites [7] Potts, R. Variability selection in hominid evolution. Evol. Anthropol. 7, 81–96 (1998). sourceNot checked yet

Probably not a substantial claim.

The routes we identified suggest potential target areas for archaeological prospection by pinpointing the regions that humans would have frequently traversed and where archaeological material would have likely accumulated.

“The routes we identified also suggest potential target areas for archaeological prospection by pinpointing the regions that humans would have frequently traversed and where archaeological material would have likely accumulated 71 .”

• cites [71] Klein, H. S. The first Americans: the current debate. J. Interdiscip. Hist. 46, 543–561 (2016). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim.

This then gives relative probabilities of likelihood that paths were traversed.

“This then gives relative probabilities of likelihood that paths were traversed.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

Our results suggest fundamental rules for migration, highlighting the important routes and pathways that populations used to survive arid conditions and climatic disruption in the past.

“since our results suggest fundamental rules for migration, highlighting the important routes and pathways that populations used to survive arid conditions and climatic disruption in the past”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

Strahler Order 9 streams represent the most probable permanent bodies of water.

“a layer that calculate streams with Strahler Order 9 (representing the most probable permanent bodies of water) extended to the coastline (Supplementary Figure 3).”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

Few of the previously published studies identified the importance of a major corridor through the arid centre, nor for many of the lesser, but still probable, routes running through the semi-arid and channel country of inner south-western Queensland.

“Few of the previously published studies identified the importance of a major corridor through the arid centre, nor for many of the lesser, but still probable, routes running through the semi-arid and channel country of inner south-western Queensland.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

The main edaphic features dictating the network of optimal pathways would have remained largely intact even over tens of millennia, suggesting extraordinary persistence of these routes as primary corridors of movement.

“While these ethnographic trade routes are considerably younger than the period we modelled, the main edaphic features dictating the network of optimal pathways would have remained largely intact even over tens of millennia, suggesting extraordinary persistence of these routes as primary corridors of movement.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

The facilitation of movement that these super-highways provided would have enabled efficient spatial use of the continent.

“The facilitation of movement that these super-highways provided would have enabled efficient spatial use of the continent.”

Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

Our understanding of human movements is often only conceptual, the result of interpolation or inference among points across landscapes where sparse archaeological investigations have occurred.

“Yet our understanding of such movements is often only conceptual, the result of interpolation or inference among points across landscapes where sparse archaeological investigations have occurred.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

A limitation of this study is that our methods intentionally avoid considering many types of potential biases, including concerns of demographic composition or traveller velocity, the types of ecosystems encountered, and cultural influence.

“A limitation of this study is that our methods intentionally avoid considering many types of potential biases, including concerns of demographic composition or traveller velocity, the types of ecosystems encountered, and perhaps most controversially, cultural influence.”

Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Our results emphasise the extraordinary cultural plasticity of humans to adapt to novel and challenging environments rapidly and efficiently.

“Our results emphasise the extraordinary cultural plasticity of humans to adapt to novel and challenging environments rapidly and efficiently.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

The deeply established connections across these physical networks would have facilitated the movement of people, objects, and stories that led to the rich and highly interconnected Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander, and Melanesian cultures encountered at European contact.

“As people expanded across the continent and distinct cultural and linguistic groups formed, the deeply established connections across these physical networks would have facilitated the movement of people, objects, and stories that led to the rich and highly interconnected Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander, and Melanesian cultures encountered at European contact.”

Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

These same rules could be used to highlight important routes and pathways that populations may employ in the future in other regions, according to certain climate scenarios.

“these same rules could be used to highlight important routes and pathways that populations may employ in the future in other regions, according to certain climate scenarios 45,46 .”

• cites [45] Lock, G. & Pouncett, J. Walking the Ridgeway revisited: the methodological and theoretical implications of scale dependency for the derivation of slope and the calculation of least-cost pathways. In Proc. 37th International Conference (eds. Frischer, B. et al.) 192–203 (Archaeopress, 2010).Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites [46] Thomas, Z. A. et al. Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial. Quat. Sci. Rev. 233, 106222 (2020). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Our methods are applicable to other migratory events beyond Sahul, such as the peopling of the Americas or the waves of Out-of-Africa migration.

“Our methods also are applicable to other migratory events beyond Sahul, such as the peopling of the Americas or the waves of Out-of-Africa migration.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

These suggest fundamental rules guiding human movement: people orient themselves using visual cues, they search for freshwater, and they minimise caloric expenditure as much as possible as they enter new regions.

“These suggest fundamental rules guiding human movement-people orient themselves using visual cues, they search for freshwater, and they minimise caloric expenditure as much as possible as they enter new regions.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

This concordance demonstrates that while there were a range of routes available to facilitate the rapid and efficient movement of people throughout the continent, people likely chose the most optimal visually, calorically, and hydrologically most frequently.

“This concordance demonstrates that while there were a range of routes available to facilitate the rapid and efficient movement of people throughout the continent, people likely chose the most optimal visually, calorically, and hydrologically most frequently.”

Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.

Our results move the debate beyond conceptual models to identify empirically the optimal corridors of movement throughout the continent.

“Our results move this debate beyond conceptual models to identify empirically the optimal corridors of movement throughout the continent.”

Probably not a substantial claim.

Basic behavioural and landscape features enable the calculation of 'cost' of movement, which provide a foundation for understanding how different demographic processes or dispersal capabilities would have influenced these early humans' relationship with the landscape.

“Basic behavioural and landscape features enable the calculation of 'cost' of movement, which provide a foundation for understanding how different demographic processes or dispersal capabilities would have influenced these early humans' relationship with the landscape.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

The similar pathways between the period of first peopling of the continent and late Holocene trade networks suggest the underlying environmental variables structuring pathway persistence likely influenced socio-economic and ritual practices.

“However, it is telling that the similar pathways between the period of first peopling of the continent and late Holocene trade networks suggest the underlying environmental variables structuring pathway persistence likely influenced socio-economic and ritual practices.”

Probably not a substantial claim.

Because female travellers travel with different efficiencies than male travellers, the models are downscaled to those that would accommodate women and families, on average.

“Since female travellers will travel with different efficiencies than male travellers, this downscales our models to those that would accommodate women and families, on average.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Warratyi Rockshelter has a radiocarbon age on putative Genyornis eggshell of 46,300 ± 2,500 years.

“Warratyi Rockshelter Wk-37373 46300 2500 Egg Shell Putative Genyornis egg shell Sq. 2C, Spit 17 Radiocarbon AMS, ABA m B Hamm et al. 2016”

• cites Hamm et al. 2016Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

The grid spacing of one point every 50 surface cells was empirically determined to represent a reasonable balance between point density and computational cost.

“For the general sets of points, we created a regularly spaced grid with spacing selected as one point every 50 surface cells in each direction, which was empirically determined to represent a reasonable balance between point density and computational cost.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Watura Jurnti has an OSL age on quartz of 60,600 ± 2,400 years.

“Watura Jurnti Rockshelter Ad-12081 60600 2400 Quartz Grains Quartz Phase 2, Group 2, SU58 OSL C C Marsh et al. 2018”

• cites Marsh et al. 2018Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

The methods we employ can be used to examine these issues, both within Australia and other landmasses across the globe.

“The methods we employ can be used to examine these issues, both within Australia and other landmasses across the globe.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Ngarrabullgan Cave has a radiocarbon age on charcoal of 35,500 ± 600 years.

“Ngarrabullgan Cave Rockshelter OZC-733 35500 600 Charcoal Charcoal Radiocarbon ABOx m* A* Bird et al. 1999”

• cites Bird et al. 1999Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Warreen Cave has a radiocarbon age on charcoal of greater than 32,500 years.

“Warreen Cave Rockshelter Beta-42122A/ETH-7665A >32500 Charcoal Charcoal Sq.A, XU19, SU7 Radiocarbon AMS m C Allen 1996a”

• cites Allen 1996aNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

Using empirically ranked streams removes researcher bias in deciding which streams are 'important', allowing for the most parsimonious model to emerge.

“Using empirically ranked streams also removes researcher bias in deciding which streams are 'important', allowing for the most parsimonious model to emerge.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

The resampling techniques used preserved critical information from the original model.

“The resampling techniques used preserved critical information from the original model that we discuss in more detail below.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

Because the New Guinea portion of Sahul is substantially smaller than the Australia portion, there are many more points in Australia that can be used as origins and destinations, meaning there is a higher likelihood of creating super-highways in that region.

“Given that the New Guinea portion of the Sahul landmass is substantially smaller than the Australia portion, there are many more points in the latter that can be used as origins and destinations for travel.This means that there is a higher likelihood of creating the kinds of 'super-highways' in that region that are the focus of this study.”

It may state two separate claims as one.

Recent studies have shown that ABA- and hypy-treated pairs produce comparable results to each other and to ABOx-pretreated samples.

“recent studies have shown that ABA-and hypy-treated pairs produce comparable results to each other and to ABOx-pretreated samples 100,101”

• cites [100] Kolmogorov, A. Sulla determinazione empirica di una legge di distribuzione. Giornale dell’Istituto Italiano degli Attuari 4, 83–91 (1933).Not checked — no full text of the source
• cites [101] Smirnov, N. Table for estimating the goodness of fit of empirical distributions. Ann. Math. Stat. 19, 279–281 (1948). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

For marine shells, samples subject to either x-ray diffraction or Feigl staining were rated as 'm*' rather than 'm'.

“For marine shells, we rated samples subject to either x-ray diffraction or Feigl staining as 'm*' rather than 'm'.”

Probably not a substantial claim.

The original protocol only accepted charcoal ages pretreated with ABOx.

“The original protocol only accepted charcoal ages pretreated with ABOx.”

• cites Rodríguez-Rey et al. [98]Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Yurlu Kankala has a radiocarbon age on charcoal of 40,752 ± 957 years.

“Yurlu Kankala Rockshelter Wk-40356 40752 957 Charcoal Charcoal from hearth Sq. 4, XU31, SUF Radiocarbon AMS, ABBA m A* Reynen et al. 2018”

• cites Reynen et al. 2018Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

The cognitive capacity of these early explorers and their behavioural plasticity enabled the rapid expansion across a diverse range of arid, tropical and temperate environments.

“The cognitive capacity of these early explorers and their behavioural plasticity enabled the rapid expansion across a diverse range of arid, tropical and temperate environments.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Where a sample is reported as directly associated with a stratigraphic unit containing cultural deposits, it was accepted as 'associated'.

“Where a sample is reported as directly associated with a stratigraphic unit containing cultural deposits, we have accepted it as 'associated'.”

Probably not a substantial claim.

The dating quality of any infinite age or any age without a reported error was reduced to C.

“We reduced the dating quality of any infinite age or any age without a reported error to C.”

Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

The consistency of these abilities and behaviours have implications for predicting future migrations.

“The consistency of these abilities and behaviours have implications for predicting future migrations.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

The Sahul digital elevation model provides the best resolution DEM possible that can then be used for future products.

“This provides the best resolution DEM possible that can then be used for future products.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Lake Mungo WLH3 has an ESR age on tooth enamel of 78,000 ± 7,000 years.

“Mungo WLH3 Open site Not given 78000 7000 Bone Tooth enamel WLH3 ESR Linear uptake B C Thorne et al. 1999”

• cites Thorne et al. 1999Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Murubun Shelter has an OSL age on quartz of 39,400 ± 2,100 years.

“Murubun Shelter Rockshelter GLO-5031 39400 2100 Quartz Grains Quartz Sq.A1 SA OSL Single Aliquot Regenerative (SAR) m C Cosgrove et al. 2007”

• cites Cosgrove et al. 2007Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

The first quality-rating step evaluated the dating technique itself, resulting in assignment of the age to one of four categories (best to worst: m*, m, B, C).

“The first step evaluated the dating technique itself resulting in assignment of the age to one of four categories (best to worst: m*, m, B, C).”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

Female travellers would likely be leading families into new territories and holding groups together.

“We assigned all our travellers as female and mid-way through their reproductive years, suggesting that, while male travellers might make longer forays, female travellers would likely be leading families into new territories and holding groups together.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Upper Swan has a radiocarbon age on charcoal of 39,500 +2,300/-1,800 years.

“Upper Swan Open site SUA-1500 39500 +2300/-1800 Charcoal Scattered charcoal Sq. 8 Radiocarbon ABA m A Pearce & Barbetti 1981”

• cites Pearce & Barbetti 1981Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

FETE is specifically designed to address computational challenges efficiently, enabling the calculation of tens of billions of routes for the entire continent of Sahul each time it is run, compared to tens or perhaps hundreds generally created for smaller areas.

“FETE is specifically designed to address those challenges efficiently, enabling the calculation of tens of billions of routes for the entire continent of Sahul each time it is run, compared to tens or perhaps hundreds that are generally created for smaller areas (Supplemental Table 9).”

• cites Supplemental Table 9Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Quality ratings for other dating techniques such as optically stimulated luminescence follow the criteria outlined in Rodríguez-Rey et al.

“Quality ratings for other dating techniques such as optically stimulated luminescence follow the criteria outlined in detail in Rodríguez-Rey et al. 98 .”

• cites [98] Wood, R. et al. Towards an accurate and precise chronology for the colonization of Australia: the example of Riwi, Kimberley, Western Australia. PLoS ONE 11, e0160123 (2016). sourceNot checked yet

  Checked before — its earlier verdict is held back until a new check runs.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Newman Rock Shelter has a radiocarbon age on charcoal of 35,250 ± 310 years.

“Newman Rock Shelter Rockshelter Beta-364049 35250 310 Charcoal Charcoal Sq.B, Spit PS 23 Radiocarbon AMS, AAA m A Slack et al. 2018”

• cites Slack et al. 2018Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

As climate disruption impacts the liveability of many parts of the globe, we will be confronted with large-scale migration events as people escape drowning coastlines, wildfires, violence, or drought.

“As climate disruption impacts the liveability of many parts of the globe 46 , we will be confronted with large-scale migration events as people escape drowning coastlines, wildfires, violence, or drought.”

• cites [46] Thomas, Z. A. et al. Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial. Quat. Sci. Rev. 233, 106222 (2020). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim.

The overall quality rating of any age greater than 75 ka was reduced to a C, because this is beyond the accepted age of initial peopling of Sahul.

“We reduced the overall quality rating of any age > 75 ka to a C, because this is beyond the accepted age of initial peopling of Sahul.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The accepted age of initial peopling of Sahul is less than 75 ka.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Quality rating comprised a two-step process resulting in allocation of ages to one of four categories of reliability.

“Quality rating comprised a two-step process resulting in allocation of ages to one of four categories of reliability.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Nawarla Gabarnmang has a radiocarbon age on charcoal of 45,072 ± 2,149 years.

“Nawarla Gabarnmang Rockshelter Wk-34546 45072 2149 Charcoal Charcoal single fragment Sq.F, SU4, XU33 Radiocarbon AMS, ABA m A David et al. 2019”

• cites David et al. 2019 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

Sites younger than 35,000 years old and sites with ages more than 35,000 years old that are documented as not directly related to human occupation were removed from the reference dataset.

“We removed sites younger than 35,000 years old and sites with ages more than 35,000 years old that are documented as not directly related to human occupation (e.g., ages taken on samples below archaeological deposits).”

Probably not a substantial claim.

We selected the 3σ threshold after generating location maps at multiple thresholds and empirically evaluating the results.

“We selected the 3σ threshold after generating location maps at multiple thresholds (from 1σ to 6σ) and empirically evaluating the results.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Nauwalabila 1 has an OSL age on quartz of 53,400 ± 5,400 years.

“Nauwalabila 1 Rockshelter OXODK168 53400 5400 Quartz Grains Quartz Sq.L29, XU67-69 OSL Additive dose method m A Roberts et al. 1990, 1993”

• cites Roberts et al. 1990, 1993Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Lake Mungo WLH4 has an OSL age on quartz of 40,900 ± 4,500 years.

“Mungo WLH4 Open site MG-1 40900 4500 Quartz Grains Quartz (180-212 microns) WLH3 grave infill SG OSL m A Olley et al. 2006”

• cites Olley et al. 2006Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Nauwalabila 1 has an OSL age on quartz of 58,300 ± 5,800 years.

“Nauwalabila 1 Rockshelter OXODK170 58300 5800 Quartz Grains Quartz Auger hole OSL Additive dose method m B Roberts et al, 1990, 1993”

• cites Roberts et al, 1990, 1993Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Watura Jurnti has an OSL age on quartz of 68,100 ± 4,600 years.

“Watura Jurnti Rockshelter Ad-12082 68100 4600 Quartz Grains Quartz Phase 2, Group 2, SU61 OSL C C Marsh et al. 2018”

• cites Marsh et al. 2018Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Sandy Hollow has an OSL age on quartz of 61,000 ± 3,000 years.

“Sandy Hollow Open site ANUOD-1581 (SG-OSL_2013) 61000 3000 Quartz Grains Quartz (90-125 microns) Pit 7, backhoe trench SG OSL Single Aliquot Regenerative (SAR).Central Age Model (CAM).m C Hughes et al. 2003”

• cites Hughes et al. 2003Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Lake Mungo WLH3 has a U-series age on bone of 69,800 ± 2,100 years.

“Mungo WLH3 Open site BA 69800 2100 Bone Bone WLH3 U-series TI MS B B Thorne et al. 1999”

• cites Thorne et al. 1999Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim.

Archaeological sites on islands that have never formed part of the Sahul landmass were not included in the dataset.

“We did not include archaeological sites on islands that have never formed part of the Sahul landmass (e.g., the Bismarck and Solomon Archipelagos) in the dataset.”

Probably not a substantial claim.

To avoid spatial bias, two landscapes with closely spaced clusters of sites were collapsed into single sites.

“To avoid spatial bias, we collapsed two landscapes with closely spaced clusters of sites into single sites.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

The modern coastline is visually prominent at the lower sea level around much of the continent, likely due to the modern coastline creating strong erosional features.

“The modern coastline is visually prominent at the lower sea level around much of the continent, likely due to the modern coastline creating strong erosional features.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

The ways that people migrate have not changed in the hundreds of generations since the first people entered Sahul.

“The ways that people migrate have not changed in the hundreds of generations since the first people entered Sahul.”

Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

The overall quality rating of any age was reduced to a C where the authors reporting the age state that it is unreliable, or where the authors note that it is not associated with cultural material.

“We reduced the overall quality rating of any age to a C where the authors reporting the age state that it is unreliable, or where the authors note that it is not associated with cultural material.”

Probably not a substantial claim.

Relaxing the ABOx pretreatment requirement permits a much broader consideration of the available data.

“so this permits a much broader consideration of the available data”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

The second quality-rating step evaluates the strength of association of ages rated m* and m with the dating target, in this case the association of the sample with cultural deposits, resulting in a final reliability rating (best to worst: A*, A, B and C).

“The second step evaluates the strength of association of ages rated m* and m with the dating target, in this case the association of the sample with cultural deposits, resulting in a final reliability rating (best to worst: A*, A, B and C).”

Probably not a substantial claim.

The reference archaeological site dataset for Sahul was constructed by building on the AustArch compilation.

“We constructed the reference archaeological site dataset for Sahul (Supplemental Table 8) by building on the AustArch compilation 97 ; for more information on age reliability we recommend reviewing that publication, although we detail our process below.”

• cites [97] David, B. et al. 45,610–52,160 years of site and landscape occupation at Nawarla Gabarnmang, Arnhem Land plateau (northern Australia). Quat. Sci. Rev. 215, 64–85 (2019). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

35,000 years ago was selected as a threshold to encompass ages representing the earliest phases of human occupation of the continent, and before significant societal change from the Last Glacial Maximum.

“We selected 35,000 years ago as a threshold to encompass ages representing the earliest phases of human occupation of the continent, and before significant societal change from the Last Glacial Maximum.”

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

ABOx remains the standard for pretreatment of older charcoal samples (>30 ka).

“Although ABOx remains the standard for pretreatment of older charcoal samples (> 30 ka)99”

• cites [99] Kiskowski, M. A., Hancock, J. F. & Kenworthy, A. K. On the use of Ripley’s K-function and its derivatives to analyze domain size. Biophys. J. 97, 1095–1103 (2009). sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

Sandy Hollow has an OSL age on quartz of 52,900 ± 3,000 years.

“Sandy Hollow Open site ANUOD-1582 (SG-OSL_2013) 52900 3000 Quartz Grains Quartz (90-125 microns) Pit 9, XU12-13 SG OSL Single Aliquot Regenerative (SAR).Central Age Model (CAM).m B Hughes et al. 2014”

• cites Hughes et al. 2014Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.