Increased climate pressure on the agricultural frontier in the Eastern Amazonia–Cerrado transition zone
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Abstract
Several large-scale drivers of both anthropogenic and natural environmental changes are interacting nonlinearly in the transition zone between eastern Amazonia and the adjacent Cerrado, considered to be another Brazilian agricultural frontier. Land-use change for agrobusiness expansion together with climate change in the transition zone between eastern Amazonia and the adjacent Cerrado may have induced a worsening of severe drought conditions over the last decade. Here we show that the largest warming and drying trends over tropical South America during the last four decades are observed to be precisely in the eastern Amazonia–Cerrado transition region, where they induce delayed wet-season and worsen severe drought conditions over the last decade. Our results evidence an increase in temperature, vapor pressure deficit, subsidence, dry-day frequency, and a decrease in precipitation, humidity, and evaporation, plus a delay in the onset of the wet season, inducing a higher risk of fire during the dry-to-wet transition season. These findings provide observational evidence of the increasing climatic pressure in this area, which is sensitive for global food security, and the need to reconcile agricultural expansion and protection of natural tropical biomes.
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Parts of the western and eastern Amazon forest are becoming wetter, with annual rainfall increasing by up to 20 mm yr−1.
“By contrast, parts of the western and eastern Amazon forest are becoming wetter, with annual rainfall increasing by up to 20 mm yr−1.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [31]
The Results sections “Regional scale trends over the MATOPIBA” and “Drought and land cover changes” report declining rainfall in the eastern Amazonia–Cerrado transition region and describe eastern Amazonia’s dry and dry-to-wet seasons as becoming drier. The paper does not report the claimed increase of up to 20 mm yr−1 in annual rainfall in parts of the western and eastern Amazon forest. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredDry season mean temperature is now more than 2 °C higher than it was 40 years ago in large parts of the central and southeastern Amazon.
“Dry season mean temperature is now more than 2 °C higher than it was 40 years ago in large parts of the central and southeastern Amazon.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [31]
The Results section, “Compound changes in hydrological and climate variables” (page unavailable), reports warming over four decades in the Eastern Amazonia–Cerrado transition zone, but its July–October trend of 0.38 °C per decade amounts to about 1.5 °C, not more than 2 °C. “Regional scale trends over the MATOPIBA” reports a 1.2 °C change from 1981 to 2020. The copy does not establish the claimed magnitude across large parts of the central and southeastern Amazon. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredPast drier climatic conditions were very different from current climatic conditions, in which observed warming trends may exacerbate drought impacts on the forest by exposing trees to unprecedented levels of water stress.
“Past drier climatic conditions were therefore very different from the current climatic conditions, in which observed warming trends may exacerbate drought impacts on the forest by exposing trees to unprecedented levels of water stress31,32.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [31]
The Results (Drought and land cover changes) report that recent warming and drying suggest increasing water stress on vegetation in the eastern Amazonia–Cerrado transition zone. The paper does not establish that past drier climates were very different from current conditions or that trees face unprecedented levels of water stress. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSatellite observations of climatic variability confirm model projections, showing that since the early 1980s, the Amazonian region has been warming significantly at an average rate of 0.27 °C per decade during the dry season, with the highest rates of up to 0.6 °C per decade in the centre and southeast of the biome.
“Satellite observations of climatic variability31 confirm model projections2, showing that since the early 1980s, the Amazonian region has been warming significantly at an average rate of 0.27 °C per decade during the dry season, with the highest rates of up to 0.6 °C per decade in the centre and southeast of the biome (Fig. 1a).”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [31]
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThese climatic conditions could expose the forest to unprecedented levels of vapour pressure deficit and consequently water stress.
“These climatic conditions could expose the forest to unprecedented levels of vapour pressure deficit31 and consequently water stress30.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [31]
Since the early 1980s, rainfall conditions have changed; peripheral and central parts of the Amazon forest are drying significantly, such as in the southern Bolivian Amazon, where annual rainfall reduced by up to 20 mm yr−1.
“Since the early 1980s, rainfall conditions have also changed31. Peripheral and central parts of the Amazon forest are drying significantly, such as in the southern Bolivian Amazon, where annual rainfall reduced by up to 20 mm yr−1 (Extended Data Fig. 3a).”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [31]
Only a few small areas in the west of the biome are significantly cooling by around 0.1 °C per decade.
“Only a few small areas in the west of the biome are significantly cooling by around 0.1 °C per decade (Fig. 1a).”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [31]
The Results section on compound changes reports widespread significant warming in the EAC, and the Figure 1 caption says only statistically significant pixels are displayed. Neither passage identifies small cooling areas in the west of the biome or a cooling rate of about 0.1 °C per decade. Searches for western cooling and that rate found no supporting passage in our copy; widespread warming does not rule out local exceptions. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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Cites
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Marengo, J. A., Jimenez, J. C., Espinoza, J.-C., Cunha, A. P., & Aragão, L. E. O.
- Affiliations
- Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (BR)
- Universitat de València (ES)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
- Corresponding author
- Marengo, José A.
- ORCID
- Espinoza, Jhan-Carlo
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2022-01-10
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 457-457
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8748735
- OpenAlex
- W4206360607
- Cited by
- 164
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 32 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 38 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 13.06
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Repository of Digital Objects for Teaching Research and Culture (University of Valencia) (submittedVersion)
- Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- CNPq (465501/2014-1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- climate change, agricultural frontier, drought, vapor pressure deficit, subsidence, precipitation decrease, evaporation, fire risk, land use change, food security, tropical biomes
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