The DOI matches its Crossref record; 56 of the 56 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 14 of the 63 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time
Open accessAbstract
Electrification of passenger road transport and household heating features prominently in current and planned policy frameworks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. However, since electricity generation involves using fossil fuels, it is not established where and when the replacement of fossil fuel-based technologies by electric cars and heat pumps can effectively reduce overall emissions. Could electrification policy backfire by promoting their diffusion before electricity is decarbonised? Here, we analyse current and future emissions trade-offs in 59 world regions with heterogeneous households, by combining forward-looking integrated assessment model simulations with bottom-up life-cycle assessment. We show that already under current carbon intensities of electricity generation, electric cars and heat pumps are less emission-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives in 53 world regions, representing 95% of global transport and heating demand. Even if future end-use electrification is not matched by rapid power sector decarbonisation, it likely avoids emissions in almost all world regions.
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Claims the paper makes
27 Own result · 12 No full text of the sources · 12 Own interpretation · 11 No basis given · 10 Own method · 9 Sources not found · 7 Partly supported · 4 Couldn’t confirm · 1 Supported so far · 1 Not checked yet · accuracy not yet measured
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In the paper
“For the case of EVs, only two studies extend the analysis into the future9,26.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [9] Cox, B., Mutel, C. L., Bauer, C., Mendoza Beltran, A. & van Vuuren, D. P. Uncertain environmental footprint of current and future battery electric vehicles. Environ. Sci. Technol. 52, 4989–4995 (2018). source
- Partly supportedcites [26] Mercure, J.-F. et al. Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE. Energy Strategy Rev. 20, 195–208 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4.2 models future electric-vehicle diffusion and associated changes in fuel use and emissions, so the paper does extend EV-related analysis into the future. Our copy does not establish that this is an EV life-cycle analysis or that only two studies do so. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Markets are highly diverse, due to varying preferences, incomes, household characteristics, and attraction to energy-intense luxury items29.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [29] Mercure, J.-F., Lam, A., Billington, S. & Pollitt, H. Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 °C. Climatic Change 151, 109–129 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The ‘A bounded-rational discrete choice model with heterogenous agents’ section says vehicle consumers are highly heterogeneous and links their differing tastes to income and other socioeconomic factors. The transport-database section distinguishes large-engine ‘Lux’ vehicles, but the paper does not specifically identify household characteristics or attraction to energy-intensive luxury items as causes of market diversity. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
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In the paper
“Real-world fuel use and resulting use-phase CO2 emissions of petrol cars are widely recognized to exceed official manufacturer ratings, by an average margin of 10-40% (based on empirical studies in Europe, the USA and China)53–57.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [53] Duarte, G. O., Gonçalves, G. A. & Farias, T. L. Analysis of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions of regulated and alternative driving cycles based on real-world measurements. Transp. Res. D 44, 43–54 (2016). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [54] Tietge, U., Mock, P., Franco, V. & Zacharof, N. From laboratory to road: modeling the divergence between official and real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emission values in the German passenger car market for the years 2001–2014. Energy Policy 103, 212–222 (2017). source
- Partly supportedcites [55] Fontaras, G., Zacharof, N. G. & Ciuffo, B. Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Europe—laboratory versus real-world emissions. Prog. Energy Combust. Sci. 60, 97–131 (2017). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction and Summary discussion and conclusions (pages unavailable) report that real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions exceed certification values for European passenger cars, with reported gaps ranging from about 10% in earlier studies to 30–40% in 2014–2015. The paper does not establish that 10–40% is an average margin specifically for petrol cars across Europe, the USA and China; section 2.3 says no extensive US studies of the real-world-versus-laboratory divergence exist. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked yetcites [56] Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends—1975 Through 2014 (US Environmental Protection Agency, 2018); https://go.nature.com/2HXxrja
- Not checked yetcites [57] Solid and Gaseous Bioenergy Pathways: Input Values and GHG Emissions (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, 2014); https://go.nature.com/397sRLk
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In the paper
“For cars, the distribution of current sales was derived from detailed market data on vehicle sales (years 2004-2012), which we compiled by matching sales data to manufacturer data for thousands of individual vehicle models currently on the market in 18 countries, and we extrapolated these values for countries where data is missing29,30.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Distributions of petrol cars and fossil boilers
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [29] Mercure, J.-F., Lam, A., Billington, S. & Pollitt, H. Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 °C. Climatic Change 151, 109–129 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The FTT: transport database section (page unavailable) says 2012 registrations were matched model by model to vehicle prices, with data from 18 representative regions used as proxies elsewhere. It also says historical vehicle-category shares cover 2004–2012. It does not establish that sales data for that entire period were matched to manufacturer data for thousands of individual models. (LLM, conf=0.85)
- Could not verifycites [30] Knobloch, F., Pollitt, H., Chewpreecha, U., Daioglou, V. & Mercure, J.-F. Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Energy Effic. 12, 521–550 (2019). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Energy demand section (page not provided) describes data on residential heating, not car sales. Searches for vehicle-model sales, manufacturer data, the 2004–2012 period, and 18-country coverage found no passage addressing the attributed method. (LLM, conf=0.78)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Partly supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In almost all regions, such temporary increases are outweighed by emission reductions in subsequent years.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Net changes in total emissions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Relative differences range from EVs being around 70% less emission intensive per vehicle-kilometre (in largely renewable- and nuclear-powered Iceland, Switzerland and Sweden), to being 40% more emission intensive (in oil shale-dependent Estonia) (Supplementary Table 6).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The only exception is road transport in Japan: Due to the unique combination of very efficient petrol cars (with a growing share of hybrids) and a power sector that is not highly decarbonised, EVs could lead to marginally higher emissions (Supplementary Table 6).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Over time, in more and more regions even the use of inefficient EVs or HPs is less emission intensive than the most efficient new petrol cars or fossil boilers.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Discussion
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In the paper
“On global average, even very inefficient EVs and HPs would be less emission intensive than very efficient new petrol cars and fossil boilers if the grid’s emission intensity was below 700 gCO2eq/kWh (in case of EVs) and 500 gCO2eq/kWh (in case of HPs), respectively (Fig. 2).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Very inefficient EVs would still be less emission intensive than very efficient new petrol cars (‘green’ cases), if the electricity grid’s emission intensity was below between 300 gCO2eq/kWh (in Japan) and 1000 gCO2eq/kWh (in Canada).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- It may state two separate claims as one. 35
- Probably not a substantial claim. 13
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“However, they do not consider regional differences around the globe, heterogeneous technology choices by consumers or the electrification of heating, and thus cannot adequately and comprehensively inform policy-making processes at the national level.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [9] Cox, B., Mutel, C. L., Bauer, C., Mendoza Beltran, A. & van Vuuren, D. P. Uncertain environmental footprint of current and future battery electric vehicles. Environ. Sci. Technol. 52, 4989–4995 (2018). source
- Could not verifycites [26] Mercure, J.-F. et al. Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE. Energy Strategy Rev. 20, 195–208 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4.4 compares E3ME-FTT-GENIE with other models, and section 4.8 describes its usefulness for policy-making. Neither identifies the two EV studies or says that they omit regional differences, heterogeneous consumer choices, or heating electrification, or that they cannot adequately inform national policy. I searched for those omissions and the claimed policy-making limitation. (LLM, conf=0.72)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Multi-sectoral mitigation scenarios (such as those reviewed by the IPCC) have identified electrification as a robust policy strategy, but typically focus on a context of rapid power sector decarbonisation3,13.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Clarke, L. E. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014); https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415416.012 source
- Partly supportedcites [13] Mercure, J.-F., Pollitt, H., Bassi, A. M., Viñuales, J. E. & Edwards, N. R. Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy. Glob. Environ. Change 37, 102–115 (2016). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3.3 describes a scenario with 90% electricity-sector decarbonisation and says mitigation must also involve end-use sectors, notably transport. It does not identify electrification as a robust policy strategy or establish that multi-sectoral scenarios typically assume rapid power-sector decarbonisation. The indexed passage provides no page number. (LLM, conf=0.78)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“This is different to existing life-cycle studies of EVs and HPs, which are limited to the present situation, and mostly focus on a few regions or global averages (see refs.15–23 for studies on EVs, and refs.10,24,25 on HPs).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [15] Miotti, M., Supran, G. J., Kim, E. J. & Trancik, J. E. Personal vehicles evaluated against climate change mitigation targets. Environ. Sci. Technol. 50, 10795–10804 (2016). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [16] Onat, N. C., Kucukvar, M. & Tatari, O. Conventional, hybrid, plug-in hybrid or electric vehicles? State-based comparative carbon and energy footprint analysis in the United States. Appl. Energy 150, 36–49 (2015). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [17] Bauer, C., Hofer, J., Althaus, H.-J., Del Duce, A. & Simons, A. The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework. Appl. Energy 157, 871–883 (2015). source
- Partly supportedcites [18] Jochem, P., Babrowski, S. & Fichtner, W. Assessing CO2 emissions of electric vehicles in Germany in 2030. Transp. Res. A 78, 68–83 (2015). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction (page unavailable) says earlier EV analyses usually examine electricity generation at a highly aggregated level, supporting the claim about limited geographic detail. It does not establish that existing EV life-cycle studies are limited to the present; this paper itself assesses EV emissions in Germany in 2030. The sentence assigns heat-pump studies to other references, not this source. (LLM, conf=0.78)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [19] Wu, Y. et al. Energy consumption and CO2 emission impacts of vehicle electrification in three developed regions of China. Energy Policy 48, 537–550 (2012). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [20] Archsmith, J., Kendall, A. & Rapson, D. From cradle to junkyard: assessing the life cycle greenhouse gas benefits of electric vehicles. Res. Transp. Econ. 52, 72–90 (2015). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [21] Hawkins, T. R., Gausen, O. M. & Strømman, A. H. Environmental impacts of hybrid and electric vehicles—a review. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 17, 997–1014 (2012). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [22] Woo, J., Choi, H. & Ahn, J. Well-to-wheel analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for electric vehicles based on electricity generation mix: a global perspective. Transp. Res. D 51, 340–350 (2017). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [23] Saner, D. et al. Is it only CO2 that matters? A life cycle perspective on shallow geothermal systems. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 14, 1798–1813 (2010). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [10] Mattinen, M. K., Nissinen, A., Hyysalo, S. & Juntunen, J. K. Energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of air-source heat pump and innovative ground-source air heat pump in a cold climate. J. Ind. Ecol. 19, 61–70 (2014). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“EVs are projected in the current trajectory to account for 19% of global passenger road transport in 2050 (1% in 2030), and HPs for 16% of global residential heat demand (7% in 2030)28, also with considerable variation between regions (Supplementary Tables 3 and 4).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Scenarios of technology diffusion
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [28] Mercure, J.-F. & Lam, A. The effectiveness of policy on consumer choices for private road passenger transport emissions reductions in six major economies. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 064008 (2015). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction discusses transport emissions and replacing combustion engines with hybrid and electric systems, while Data and results describes vehicle sales in six economies. Searches for the stated 2030 and 2050 EV shares and for heat-pump shares found no passage reporting these global projections; our copy therefore does not verify the figures or regional variation. (LLM, conf=0.76)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Could not verify
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“We assumed conversion efficiencies of 75% for oil and gas heating systems, 86% for advanced oil systems, and 90% for advanced gas systems63.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [63] Hauck, M., Steinmann, Z. J. N., Laurenzi, I. J., Karuppiah, R. & Huijbregts, M. A. J. How to quantify uncertainty and variability in life cycle assessment: the case of greenhouse gas emissions of gas power generation in the US. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 074005 (2014). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The System description (p. 3) concerns natural-gas power plants generating electricity, not oil or gas heating systems. The Reduction potential section (p. 7) discusses power-plant efficiencies but gives none of the claimed 75%, 86%, or 90% heating-system assumptions; searches for those values and systems found no matching passage. (LLM, conf=0.76)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“This model’s representation of technology uptake in transport and heating is strongly empirical, based on detailed regional datasets on consumer markets, and simulates technology diffusion profiles consistent with historical observations (see Methods)29–31.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Scenarios of technology diffusion
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [29] Mercure, J.-F., Lam, A., Billington, S. & Pollitt, H. Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 °C. Climatic Change 151, 109–129 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Partly supportedcites [30] Knobloch, F., Pollitt, H., Chewpreecha, U., Daioglou, V. & Mercure, J.-F. Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Energy Effic. 12, 521–550 (2019). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [31] Holden, P. B. et al. Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 609–613 (2018). source
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- Partly supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“For heating systems, current and future sales were simulated by E3ME-FTT (from 2015-2050), according to available data on fuel use and technology stocks (years 1990-2014)31,66.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Distributions of petrol cars and fossil boilers
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [31] Holden, P. B. et al. Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 609–613 (2018). source
- Could not verifycites [66] Mercure, J.-F. Fashion, fads and the popularity of choices: micro-foundations for diffusion consumer theory. Struct. Change Econ. Dyn. 46, 194–207 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3.4 (p. 10) discusses a general technology-diffusion model, and the References (p. 22) list a separate E3ME-FTT-GENIE paper. Our copy does not describe simulations of heating-system sales, a 2015–2050 projection, or the use of 1990–2014 fuel-use and technology-stock data; searches for those terms found no supporting passage. (LLM, conf=0.75)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim.
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“FTT models are characterised by strong path-dependence of projected technology diffusion (equivalent to strong autocorrelation in time), as it is typically found in technology transitions68,69, and for that reason, provides a good representation of the inertia embedded in technological systems.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [68] Wilson, C. Up-scaling, formative phases, and learning in the historical diffusion of energy technologies. Energy Policy 50, 81–94 (2012). source
- Supportedcites [69] Mercure, J.-F. FTT:Power: a global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion. Energy Policy 48, 799–811 (2012). source
Split into 2 atoms — 2 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We show that already under current carbon intensities of electricity generation, electric cars and heat pumps are less emission-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives in 53 world regions, representing 95% of global transport and heating demand.”
- Also stated in: § Current emission intensities in transport and heating · plain
“Accordingly, we find that current models of EVs and HPs have lower life-cycle emission intensities than current new petrol cars and fossil boilers in 53 of 59 world regions, accounting for 95% of global road transport demand and 96% of global heat demand in 2015 (Supplementary Figure 1).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § Current emission intensities in transport and heating · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Due to a combination of both effects, mean emission intensities of EVs are projected to be around 20% lower in 2030 (relative to 2015), and 30% lower in 2050 (weighted by transport demand in 2015).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On global average in 2015, EVs result in 31% lower emissions per vehicle-kilometre compared to petrol cars (each region weighted by its transport demand), and the emission intensity of HPs is on average 35% lower than that of fossil boilers (regions weighted by their heat demand) (Supplementary Table 6).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2015, this happens in regions accounting for 43% of global demand in road transport (23 regions), and 80% in household heating (28 regions).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, we find that current and future life-cycle emissions from EVs and HPs are on average lower than those of new petrol cars and fossil boilers - not just on the global aggregate, but also in most individual countries.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Averaged over all regions, new petrol cars in 2050 will emit 20% less emissions per vehicle-kilometre than in 2015, and new fossil boiler will be 15% less emissions intensive (weighted by service demand in 2015), with large variations between regions.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Efficient new petrol cars can cause less emissions than average EVs, and efficient new gas boilers can outperform average HPs (indicated in yellow in Fig. 3-5).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As EVs and HPs replace fossil-based technologies over time, production emissions are projected to grow from around 25% of total road transport emissions in 2015 to 35-38% in 2050, and from 1% of total heating emissions in 2015 to 2-9% in 2050 (Supplementary Figure 4).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Net changes in total emissions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By 2045 and 2035, respectively, EVs and HPs in the current trajectory are on average less emission intensive than fossil alternatives in all world regions (Supplementary Figure 1).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is due to (i) reduced use-phase emissions from electricity and (ii) increased production emissions, which are currently around 30% higher for EVs than for petrol cars (at the average global electricity mix), and fifteen times higher for HPs than for fossil boilers (mainly from the leakage of refrigerant liquid).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Net changes in total emissions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mean intensities of HPs are projected to decrease 30% below their 2015 value by 2030, and 40% by 2050 (weighted by heat demand in 2015).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This roughly corresponds to the emission intensity of older coal power plants34, and is higher than the estimated life-cycle emission intensity of more than 90% of global electricity generation in 2015 (Supplementary Table 2).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [34] Ciez, R. E. & Whitacre, J. F. Examining different recycling processes for lithium-ion batteries. Nat. Sustain. 2, 148–156 (2019). source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As of 2015, this applies to 5% of global road transport demand (5 regions) and 4% of global heating demand (6 regions) (Fig. 5).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The policies will take some time to change the technology mix in transport and heating, but they eventually increase the market share of EVs to 50% by 2050 (1% in 2030), and of HPs to 35% by 2050 (12% in 2030).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Scenarios of technology diffusion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that both EVs and HPs reduce global emissions in all scenarios and at all times (Fig. 6): EVs by up to -1.5 GtCO2/y (-29% of total passenger road transport emissions without use of EVs), and HPs by up to -0.8 GtCO2/y (-46% of total residential heating emissions without use of HPs).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Net changes in total emissions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“These thresholds roughly correspond to the emission intensity of gas power plants34, and are lower than the average emission intensity of global electricity generation in 2015 (around 740 gCO2eq/kWh, Supplementary Table 2).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [34] Ciez, R. E. & Whitacre, J. F. Examining different recycling processes for lithium-ion batteries. Nat. Sustain. 2, 148–156 (2019). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the ‘2°C scenario’, the power sector’s carbon intensity decreases 44% by 2030, and 74% by 2050 (relative to 2015).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Scenarios of technology diffusion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is the case in regions accounting for 52% of global demand for passenger road transport (31 regions), and in regions with 16% of global demand for household heating (25 regions).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Combined, they generate 24% of global fuel-combustion emissions and are the two major sources of direct carbon emissions by households1–5.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] de Coninck, H. et al. in Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 313–443 (IPCC, WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites [2] International Energy Agency Global EV Outlook 2017 (IEA/OECD, 2017).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Clarke, L. E. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014); https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415416.012 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [4] Kennedy, C. Key threshold for electricity emissions. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 179–181 (2015). source
- Not matchedcites [5] Rogelj, J. et al. in Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 93–174 (IPCC, WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Emission intensities in the power sector widely differ across the globe and will change over time3.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Clarke, L. E. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014); https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415416.012 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Cumulative net changes can then be approximated based on the region-specific means of distributed intensities.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Net changes in GHG emissions
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Meeting policy objectives (such as emissions targets) is not achieved by means of maximising or minimising some target function (such as welfare or costs). Instead, the model is run iteratively until the target would be met with a chosen set of policies.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although such a combination of policies is unlikely in the real world, the scenario serves as a worst case analysis.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Scenarios of technology uptake
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Ranges of current and future electricity use per vehicle-kilometre were based on estimates by Cox et al.51 for 2015 (median: 0.19 kWh/v-km; 5th-95th percentile range: 0.13-0.24 kWh/v-km) and 2040 (median: 0.15 kWh/v-km; 5th-95th percentile range: 0.10-0.19 kWh/v-km, based on the ‘most likely automation’ scenario), including auxiliary power demand and charging losses.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Cox et al.51
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Electricity requirements (including background processes) are 37 kWh per kW of installed capacity (0.001 kWh/kWhth, based on the same lifetimes and operating hours as for HPs), and emissions of other sources are 30 kg CO2eq per kW (0.8 gCO2eq/kWhth)52.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [52] Zhang, S. et al. Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China. Energy 69, 247–257 (2014). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“For the battery production, non-electricity emissions were estimated at 3,200 kgCO2eq (21.3 gCO2eq/v-km), and battery cell electricity requirements at 5,000 kWh (0.034 kWh/v-km)51.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [51] Wernet, G. et al. The ecoinvent database version 3 (part I): overview and methodology. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 21, 1218–1230 (2016). source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is thus well suited to analyse existing technological trajectories as observed in recent historical data.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Electricity requirements for producing a medium-sized car (curb weight 1,600 kg) were estimated at 9,200 kWh (0.061 kWh/v-km), and emissions from other sources at 5,900 kgCO2eq (40 gCO2eq./v-km)52.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [52] Zhang, S. et al. Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China. Energy 69, 247–257 (2014). source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All policies included in the scenarios are designed to match as closely as possible real-world policy instruments, for example energy taxes, vehicle taxes, feed-in tariffs, subsidies, direct regulation or efficiency standards.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Scenarios of technology uptake
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The same literature source estimated that future efficiencies of HPs will improve by 30-50% until 2030, and 40-60% until 2050.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [33] Schlömer, S. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds. Edenhofer, O. et al.) 1329–1356 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“For the production and end-of-life stage of HPs, we estimated emissions from non-electricity sources at 830 kg CO2eq per kW of installed capacity52. 750 kg CO2eq of these emissions stem from the leakage of refrigerant liquids over the entire life-cycle, all included here in the production emissions.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [52] Zhang, S. et al. Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China. Energy 69, 247–257 (2014). source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While many combinations are possible, what matters for region-wide effects is the sum over all individual choices of cars and heating systems within one region in any given year.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Net changes in GHG emissions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These scenarios were chosen so that they allowed to simulate the emission trade-offs from electrification as realistically as possible, given (i) what is likely from a current perspective, (ii) what would be likely in a (hypothetical) case of ambitious climate policies around the globe, and (iii) a worst-case scenario in which end-use electrification is not matched by power sector decarbonisation.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Scenarios of technology uptake
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As electricity requirements and embodied emissions of the production processes can be subject to uncertainty, we included a sensitivity analysis for a range of life-cycle parameters (Supplementary Figures 5 and 6).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The FTT (Future Technology Transformation) family of models project the uptake of energy technologies in the future until 2050, by extending the current trajectory of technological change with a diffusion algorithm, which is calibrated on datasets of technology uptake in recent history (up to 2012 for power and transport, 2014 for heating) (Supplementary Tables 4 and 5).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The model is a discrete choice model in which choice options are weighted by their own popularity, a method that generates endogenous S-shaped technology diffusion curves67.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [67] Rogers, E. M. Diffusion of Innovations (Simon and Schuster, 2010).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“The model is regularly used in policy analyses and impact assessments for the European Commission and elsewhere73,74.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [73] Mercure, J.-F. et al. in Study on the Macroeconomics of Energy and Climate Policies (European Commission, DG Energy, 2016).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites [74] E3ME Manual, Version 6 (Cambridge Econometrics, 2014); https://go.nature.com/2T1FIsO
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
The paper relies on this without support.
The spatial resolution of 59 world regions is considerably higher than any previous forward-looking life-cycle study of electric vehicles or heat pumps.
“Our analysis disaggregates global demand into 59 world regions, a spatial resolution which is considerably higher than in any previous forward-looking life-cycle study of EVs or HPs.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The structure of all sales remains distributed over time; people would not suddenly all buy economic small engine cars.
“While the mean efficiencies in each region can change over time, we assumed that the structure of all sales remains distributed, i.e. that people would not suddenly all buy economic small engine cars.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The average insulation efficiency of buildings gradually increases over time.
“For the heating sector, we furthermore assumed that the average insulation efficiency of buildings gradually increases over time (see Supplementary Methods 3).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Agents make comparisons between technology options that they individually see as available in their respective national markets, structured by pair-wise comparisons of distributed preferences.
“We assume that agents make comparisons between technology options that they individually see as available in their respective national markets, which we structure by pair-wise comparisons of distributed preferences.”
Citations
Cites
The ecoinvent database version 3 (part I): overview and methodology
Wernet, G., Bauer, C., Steubing, B., Reinhard, J., Moreno-Ruiz, E., & Weidema, B. (2016) · The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment · doi:10.1007/s11367-016-1087-8 · Cited by 5,564
Climate change 2014 : mitigation of climate change
Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., & Sokona, Y. (2014) · University of North Texas Digital Library (University of North Texas) · Cited by 1,637
Systems integration for global sustainability
Liu, J., Mooney, H. A., Hull, V., Davis, S. J., Gaskell, J. C., Hertel, T. W., Lubchenco, J., Seto, K. C., Gleick, P. H., Kremen, C., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1258832 · Cited by 1,397
Richardson, D. B. (2013) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2012.11.042 · Cited by 999
Examining different recycling processes for lithium-ion batteries
Ciez, R. E., & Whitacre, J. F. (2019) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0222-5 · Cited by 965
Hertwich, E. G., Gibon, T., Bouman, E. A., Arvesen, A., Suh, S., Heath, G. A., Bergesen, J. D., Ramírez, A., Vega‐Coloma, M., & Shi, L. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1312753111 · Cited by 831
Environmental policy integration: a state of the art review
Jordan, A., & Lenschow, A. (2010) · Environmental Policy and Governance · doi:10.1002/eet.539 · Cited by 815
Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment
Creutzig, F., Ravindranath, N. H., Berndes, G., Bolwig, S., Bright, R., Cherubini, F., Chum, H., Corbera, E., Delucchi, M., Faaij, A., et al. (2015) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.12205 · Cited by 752
Impact of uncoordinated plug-in electric vehicle charging on residential power demand
Muratori, M. (2018) · Nature Energy · doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0074-z · Cited by 695
Fontaras, G., Zacharof, N.-G., & Ciuffo, B. (2017) · Progress in Energy and Combustion Science · doi:10.1016/j.pecs.2016.12.004 · Cited by 686
Research works printed but not linked: 12
- Energy Agenda—Towards a Low-Carbon Energy Supply (Ministry of Economic Affairs of the Netherlands, 2017); https://go.nature.com/385jsT9
- Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Promotion of the Use of Energy from Renewable Sources—Analysis of the Final Compromise Text with a View to Agreement (Council of the European Union, 2018); https://go.nature.com/37XxTbO
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Institutional enablers of electric vehicle market: Evidence from 30 countries
Khatua, A., Kumar, R. R., & De, S. K. (2023) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2023.103612 · Cited by 38
Nykamp, H. A., Andersen, A. D., & Geels, F. W. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acf67a · Cited by 42
Potential of air-source heat pumps to reduce environmental impacts in 18 European countries
Masternak, C., Meunier, S., Reinbold, V., et al. (2024) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2024.130487 · Cited by 38
Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: A Review of Strategies and Technologies Across Sectors
Khaffaf, I. A., Al-Tamimi, A. K., & Ahmed, V. (2024) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en17236129 · Cited by 46
“Economic challenges, such as the initial costs of transitioning to low-carbon technologies and infrastructure, existing subsidies for fossil fuels, and insufficient financing mechanisms can impede progress [21].”
Assessing and Managing the Direct and Indirect Emissions from Electric and Fossil-Powered Vehicles
Mofolasayo, A. O. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15021138 · Cited by 37
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“However, the growth of power generation is likely to continue with the increase in electrification and the substitution of direct fuel consumption in end-use sectors with electricity (Knobloch et al., 2020; Qin et al., 2018; Tong et al., 2020; Williams et al., 2012; W. Zhao et al., 2018).”
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The economic and energy security implications of the Russian energy weapon
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Recycling methods for different cathode chemistries – A critical review
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“However, over a vehicle’s lifetime, this cost is offset by reduced-per-mile CO2 emissions in settings where a substantive proportion of energy production is from renewable sources [52].”
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Charitopoulos, V. M., Fajardy, M., Chyong, C. K., & Reiner, D. M. (2023) · iScience · doi:10.1016/j.isci.2023.108239 · Cited by 29
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“EVs not only reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, cut down on polluting emissions, but also improve public health and foster economic growth [4], [5].”
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Replacing gas boilers with heat pumps is the fastest way to cut German gas consumption
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Carbon Emission Measurement of Urban Green Passenger Transport: A Case Study of Qingdao
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Accelerating Two-Phase Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm for Electric Location-Routing Problems
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Impact of vehicle electrification on global supply chains and emission transfer
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A multi-city urban atmospheric greenhouse gas measurement data synthesis
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Visual Detection of Traffic Incident through Automatic Monitoring of Vehicle Activities
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The road to carbon neutrality in China’s building sector
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Graphical approaches for cleaner production and sustainability in process systems
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“This increase is primarily attributed to the widespread promotion of electrification and the substitution of electricity for direct fuel combustion (e.g., electric vehicles and heat pumps), further escalating the demand for power generation (Knobloch et al. 2020).”
Travel intensity of private electric vehicles and implications for GHG emission reduction in China
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Science, Technology and Innovation Equity and Inclusion in Electric Vehicle Sector
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“Whereas there remain regions where this is not yet feasible, and given the various technological innovations in the product lifecycle, policymakers should begin to more actively promote EVs to reduce emissions [6].”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Knobloch, F., Hanssen, S. V., Lam, A., Pollitt, H., Salas, P., Chewpreecha, U., Huijbregts, M. A. J., & Mercure, J.-F.
- Affiliations
- Radboud University Nijmegen (NL)
- University of Macau (MO)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Cambridge Econometrics (United Kingdom) (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Knobloch, Florian
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Sustainability
- Published
- 2020-03-23
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 437-447
- ISSN
- 2398-9629 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7308170
- OpenAlex
- W3006678403
- Cited by
- 407
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 64 · 2025: 73 · 2024: 67 · 2023: 80 · 2022: 63 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 20
- FWCI
- 17.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Sustainability (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- European Commission (647224, HORIZON2020, 689150)
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/K007254/1, EP/N002504/1)
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/N013174/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Keywords
- electric vehicles, heat pumps, greenhouse gas emissions, power sector decarbonization, transport decarbonization, household heating, electrification policy, life cycle assessment, integrated assessment models
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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