The DOI matches its Crossref record; 56 of the 56 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 14 of the 63 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time
Open accessAbstract
Electrification of passenger road transport and household heating features prominently in current and planned policy frameworks to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. However, since electricity generation involves using fossil fuels, it is not established where and when the replacement of fossil fuel-based technologies by electric cars and heat pumps can effectively reduce overall emissions. Could electrification policy backfire by promoting their diffusion before electricity is decarbonised? Here, we analyse current and future emissions trade-offs in 59 world regions with heterogeneous households, by combining forward-looking integrated assessment model simulations with bottom-up life-cycle assessment. We show that already under current carbon intensities of electricity generation, electric cars and heat pumps are less emission-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives in 53 world regions, representing 95% of global transport and heating demand. Even if future end-use electrification is not matched by rapid power sector decarbonisation, it likely avoids emissions in almost all world regions.
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
27 Own result · 12 No full text of the sources · 12 Own interpretation · 11 No basis given · 10 Own method · 9 Sources not found · 7 Partly supported · 4 Couldn’t confirm · 1 Supported so far · 1 Not checked yet · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“For the case of EVs, only two studies extend the analysis into the future9,26.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [9] Cox, B., Mutel, C. L., Bauer, C., Mendoza Beltran, A. & van Vuuren, D. P. Uncertain environmental footprint of current and future battery electric vehicles. Environ. Sci. Technol. 52, 4989–4995 (2018). source
- Partly supportedcites [26] Mercure, J.-F. et al. Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE. Energy Strategy Rev. 20, 195–208 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4.2 models future electric-vehicle diffusion and associated changes in fuel use and emissions, so the paper does extend EV-related analysis into the future. Our copy does not establish that this is an EV life-cycle analysis or that only two studies do so. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Markets are highly diverse, due to varying preferences, incomes, household characteristics, and attraction to energy-intense luxury items29.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [29] Mercure, J.-F., Lam, A., Billington, S. & Pollitt, H. Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 °C. Climatic Change 151, 109–129 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The ‘A bounded-rational discrete choice model with heterogenous agents’ section says vehicle consumers are highly heterogeneous and links their differing tastes to income and other socioeconomic factors. The transport-database section distinguishes large-engine ‘Lux’ vehicles, but the paper does not specifically identify household characteristics or attraction to energy-intensive luxury items as causes of market diversity. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Real-world fuel use and resulting use-phase CO2 emissions of petrol cars are widely recognized to exceed official manufacturer ratings, by an average margin of 10-40% (based on empirical studies in Europe, the USA and China)53–57.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [53] Duarte, G. O., Gonçalves, G. A. & Farias, T. L. Analysis of fuel consumption and pollutant emissions of regulated and alternative driving cycles based on real-world measurements. Transp. Res. D 44, 43–54 (2016). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [54] Tietge, U., Mock, P., Franco, V. & Zacharof, N. From laboratory to road: modeling the divergence between official and real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emission values in the German passenger car market for the years 2001–2014. Energy Policy 103, 212–222 (2017). source
- Partly supportedcites [55] Fontaras, G., Zacharof, N. G. & Ciuffo, B. Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Europe—laboratory versus real-world emissions. Prog. Energy Combust. Sci. 60, 97–131 (2017). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction and Summary discussion and conclusions (pages unavailable) report that real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions exceed certification values for European passenger cars, with reported gaps ranging from about 10% in earlier studies to 30–40% in 2014–2015. The paper does not establish that 10–40% is an average margin specifically for petrol cars across Europe, the USA and China; section 2.3 says no extensive US studies of the real-world-versus-laboratory divergence exist. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked yetcites [56] Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends—1975 Through 2014 (US Environmental Protection Agency, 2018); https://go.nature.com/2HXxrja
- Not checked yetcites [57] Solid and Gaseous Bioenergy Pathways: Input Values and GHG Emissions (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, 2014); https://go.nature.com/397sRLk
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“For cars, the distribution of current sales was derived from detailed market data on vehicle sales (years 2004-2012), which we compiled by matching sales data to manufacturer data for thousands of individual vehicle models currently on the market in 18 countries, and we extrapolated these values for countries where data is missing29,30.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Distributions of petrol cars and fossil boilers
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [29] Mercure, J.-F., Lam, A., Billington, S. & Pollitt, H. Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 °C. Climatic Change 151, 109–129 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The FTT: transport database section (page unavailable) says 2012 registrations were matched model by model to vehicle prices, with data from 18 representative regions used as proxies elsewhere. It also says historical vehicle-category shares cover 2004–2012. It does not establish that sales data for that entire period were matched to manufacturer data for thousands of individual models. (LLM, conf=0.85)
- Could not verifycites [30] Knobloch, F., Pollitt, H., Chewpreecha, U., Daioglou, V. & Mercure, J.-F. Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Energy Effic. 12, 521–550 (2019). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Energy demand section (page not provided) describes data on residential heating, not car sales. Searches for vehicle-model sales, manufacturer data, the 2004–2012 period, and 18-country coverage found no passage addressing the attributed method. (LLM, conf=0.78)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In almost all regions, such temporary increases are outweighed by emission reductions in subsequent years.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Net changes in total emissions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Relative differences range from EVs being around 70% less emission intensive per vehicle-kilometre (in largely renewable- and nuclear-powered Iceland, Switzerland and Sweden), to being 40% more emission intensive (in oil shale-dependent Estonia) (Supplementary Table 6).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The only exception is road transport in Japan: Due to the unique combination of very efficient petrol cars (with a growing share of hybrids) and a power sector that is not highly decarbonised, EVs could lead to marginally higher emissions (Supplementary Table 6).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Over time, in more and more regions even the use of inefficient EVs or HPs is less emission intensive than the most efficient new petrol cars or fossil boilers.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Discussion
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On global average, even very inefficient EVs and HPs would be less emission intensive than very efficient new petrol cars and fossil boilers if the grid’s emission intensity was below 700 gCO2eq/kWh (in case of EVs) and 500 gCO2eq/kWh (in case of HPs), respectively (Fig. 2).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Very inefficient EVs would still be less emission intensive than very efficient new petrol cars (‘green’ cases), if the electricity grid’s emission intensity was below between 300 gCO2eq/kWh (in Japan) and 1000 gCO2eq/kWh (in Canada).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 35
- Probably not a substantial claim. 13
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“However, they do not consider regional differences around the globe, heterogeneous technology choices by consumers or the electrification of heating, and thus cannot adequately and comprehensively inform policy-making processes at the national level.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [9] Cox, B., Mutel, C. L., Bauer, C., Mendoza Beltran, A. & van Vuuren, D. P. Uncertain environmental footprint of current and future battery electric vehicles. Environ. Sci. Technol. 52, 4989–4995 (2018). source
- Could not verifycites [26] Mercure, J.-F. et al. Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE. Energy Strategy Rev. 20, 195–208 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4.4 compares E3ME-FTT-GENIE with other models, and section 4.8 describes its usefulness for policy-making. Neither identifies the two EV studies or says that they omit regional differences, heterogeneous consumer choices, or heating electrification, or that they cannot adequately inform national policy. I searched for those omissions and the claimed policy-making limitation. (LLM, conf=0.72)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Multi-sectoral mitigation scenarios (such as those reviewed by the IPCC) have identified electrification as a robust policy strategy, but typically focus on a context of rapid power sector decarbonisation3,13.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Clarke, L. E. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014); https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415416.012 source
- Partly supportedcites [13] Mercure, J.-F., Pollitt, H., Bassi, A. M., Viñuales, J. E. & Edwards, N. R. Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy. Glob. Environ. Change 37, 102–115 (2016). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3.3 describes a scenario with 90% electricity-sector decarbonisation and says mitigation must also involve end-use sectors, notably transport. It does not identify electrification as a robust policy strategy or establish that multi-sectoral scenarios typically assume rapid power-sector decarbonisation. The indexed passage provides no page number. (LLM, conf=0.78)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“This is different to existing life-cycle studies of EVs and HPs, which are limited to the present situation, and mostly focus on a few regions or global averages (see refs.15–23 for studies on EVs, and refs.10,24,25 on HPs).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [15] Miotti, M., Supran, G. J., Kim, E. J. & Trancik, J. E. Personal vehicles evaluated against climate change mitigation targets. Environ. Sci. Technol. 50, 10795–10804 (2016). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [16] Onat, N. C., Kucukvar, M. & Tatari, O. Conventional, hybrid, plug-in hybrid or electric vehicles? State-based comparative carbon and energy footprint analysis in the United States. Appl. Energy 150, 36–49 (2015). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [17] Bauer, C., Hofer, J., Althaus, H.-J., Del Duce, A. & Simons, A. The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework. Appl. Energy 157, 871–883 (2015). source
- Partly supportedcites [18] Jochem, P., Babrowski, S. & Fichtner, W. Assessing CO2 emissions of electric vehicles in Germany in 2030. Transp. Res. A 78, 68–83 (2015). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction (page unavailable) says earlier EV analyses usually examine electricity generation at a highly aggregated level, supporting the claim about limited geographic detail. It does not establish that existing EV life-cycle studies are limited to the present; this paper itself assesses EV emissions in Germany in 2030. The sentence assigns heat-pump studies to other references, not this source. (LLM, conf=0.78)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [19] Wu, Y. et al. Energy consumption and CO2 emission impacts of vehicle electrification in three developed regions of China. Energy Policy 48, 537–550 (2012). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [20] Archsmith, J., Kendall, A. & Rapson, D. From cradle to junkyard: assessing the life cycle greenhouse gas benefits of electric vehicles. Res. Transp. Econ. 52, 72–90 (2015). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [21] Hawkins, T. R., Gausen, O. M. & Strømman, A. H. Environmental impacts of hybrid and electric vehicles—a review. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 17, 997–1014 (2012). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [22] Woo, J., Choi, H. & Ahn, J. Well-to-wheel analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for electric vehicles based on electricity generation mix: a global perspective. Transp. Res. D 51, 340–350 (2017). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [23] Saner, D. et al. Is it only CO2 that matters? A life cycle perspective on shallow geothermal systems. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 14, 1798–1813 (2010). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [10] Mattinen, M. K., Nissinen, A., Hyysalo, S. & Juntunen, J. K. Energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of air-source heat pump and innovative ground-source air heat pump in a cold climate. J. Ind. Ecol. 19, 61–70 (2014). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“EVs are projected in the current trajectory to account for 19% of global passenger road transport in 2050 (1% in 2030), and HPs for 16% of global residential heat demand (7% in 2030)28, also with considerable variation between regions (Supplementary Tables 3 and 4).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Scenarios of technology diffusion
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [28] Mercure, J.-F. & Lam, A. The effectiveness of policy on consumer choices for private road passenger transport emissions reductions in six major economies. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 064008 (2015). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction discusses transport emissions and replacing combustion engines with hybrid and electric systems, while Data and results describes vehicle sales in six economies. Searches for the stated 2030 and 2050 EV shares and for heat-pump shares found no passage reporting these global projections; our copy therefore does not verify the figures or regional variation. (LLM, conf=0.76)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“We assumed conversion efficiencies of 75% for oil and gas heating systems, 86% for advanced oil systems, and 90% for advanced gas systems63.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [63] Hauck, M., Steinmann, Z. J. N., Laurenzi, I. J., Karuppiah, R. & Huijbregts, M. A. J. How to quantify uncertainty and variability in life cycle assessment: the case of greenhouse gas emissions of gas power generation in the US. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 074005 (2014). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The System description (p. 3) concerns natural-gas power plants generating electricity, not oil or gas heating systems. The Reduction potential section (p. 7) discusses power-plant efficiencies but gives none of the claimed 75%, 86%, or 90% heating-system assumptions; searches for those values and systems found no matching passage. (LLM, conf=0.76)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“This model’s representation of technology uptake in transport and heating is strongly empirical, based on detailed regional datasets on consumer markets, and simulates technology diffusion profiles consistent with historical observations (see Methods)29–31.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Scenarios of technology diffusion
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [29] Mercure, J.-F., Lam, A., Billington, S. & Pollitt, H. Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 °C. Climatic Change 151, 109–129 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Partly supportedcites [30] Knobloch, F., Pollitt, H., Chewpreecha, U., Daioglou, V. & Mercure, J.-F. Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Energy Effic. 12, 521–550 (2019). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [31] Holden, P. B. et al. Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 609–613 (2018). source
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“For heating systems, current and future sales were simulated by E3ME-FTT (from 2015-2050), according to available data on fuel use and technology stocks (years 1990-2014)31,66.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Distributions of petrol cars and fossil boilers
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [31] Holden, P. B. et al. Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 609–613 (2018). source
- Could not verifycites [66] Mercure, J.-F. Fashion, fads and the popularity of choices: micro-foundations for diffusion consumer theory. Struct. Change Econ. Dyn. 46, 194–207 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3.4 (p. 10) discusses a general technology-diffusion model, and the References (p. 22) list a separate E3ME-FTT-GENIE paper. Our copy does not describe simulations of heating-system sales, a 2015–2050 projection, or the use of 1990–2014 fuel-use and technology-stock data; searches for those terms found no supporting passage. (LLM, conf=0.75)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“FTT models are characterised by strong path-dependence of projected technology diffusion (equivalent to strong autocorrelation in time), as it is typically found in technology transitions68,69, and for that reason, provides a good representation of the inertia embedded in technological systems.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [68] Wilson, C. Up-scaling, formative phases, and learning in the historical diffusion of energy technologies. Energy Policy 50, 81–94 (2012). source
- Supportedcites [69] Mercure, J.-F. FTT:Power: a global model of the power sector with induced technological change and natural resource depletion. Energy Policy 48, 799–811 (2012). source
Split into 2 atoms — 2 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We show that already under current carbon intensities of electricity generation, electric cars and heat pumps are less emission-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives in 53 world regions, representing 95% of global transport and heating demand.”
- Also stated in: § Current emission intensities in transport and heating · plain
“Accordingly, we find that current models of EVs and HPs have lower life-cycle emission intensities than current new petrol cars and fossil boilers in 53 of 59 world regions, accounting for 95% of global road transport demand and 96% of global heat demand in 2015 (Supplementary Figure 1).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Current emission intensities in transport and heating · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Due to a combination of both effects, mean emission intensities of EVs are projected to be around 20% lower in 2030 (relative to 2015), and 30% lower in 2050 (weighted by transport demand in 2015).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On global average in 2015, EVs result in 31% lower emissions per vehicle-kilometre compared to petrol cars (each region weighted by its transport demand), and the emission intensity of HPs is on average 35% lower than that of fossil boilers (regions weighted by their heat demand) (Supplementary Table 6).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2015, this happens in regions accounting for 43% of global demand in road transport (23 regions), and 80% in household heating (28 regions).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, we find that current and future life-cycle emissions from EVs and HPs are on average lower than those of new petrol cars and fossil boilers - not just on the global aggregate, but also in most individual countries.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Averaged over all regions, new petrol cars in 2050 will emit 20% less emissions per vehicle-kilometre than in 2015, and new fossil boiler will be 15% less emissions intensive (weighted by service demand in 2015), with large variations between regions.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Efficient new petrol cars can cause less emissions than average EVs, and efficient new gas boilers can outperform average HPs (indicated in yellow in Fig. 3-5).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As EVs and HPs replace fossil-based technologies over time, production emissions are projected to grow from around 25% of total road transport emissions in 2015 to 35-38% in 2050, and from 1% of total heating emissions in 2015 to 2-9% in 2050 (Supplementary Figure 4).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Net changes in total emissions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By 2045 and 2035, respectively, EVs and HPs in the current trajectory are on average less emission intensive than fossil alternatives in all world regions (Supplementary Figure 1).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is due to (i) reduced use-phase emissions from electricity and (ii) increased production emissions, which are currently around 30% higher for EVs than for petrol cars (at the average global electricity mix), and fifteen times higher for HPs than for fossil boilers (mainly from the leakage of refrigerant liquid).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Net changes in total emissions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mean intensities of HPs are projected to decrease 30% below their 2015 value by 2030, and 40% by 2050 (weighted by heat demand in 2015).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Future emission intensities in transport and heating
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This roughly corresponds to the emission intensity of older coal power plants34, and is higher than the estimated life-cycle emission intensity of more than 90% of global electricity generation in 2015 (Supplementary Table 2).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [34] Ciez, R. E. & Whitacre, J. F. Examining different recycling processes for lithium-ion batteries. Nat. Sustain. 2, 148–156 (2019). source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As of 2015, this applies to 5% of global road transport demand (5 regions) and 4% of global heating demand (6 regions) (Fig. 5).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The policies will take some time to change the technology mix in transport and heating, but they eventually increase the market share of EVs to 50% by 2050 (1% in 2030), and of HPs to 35% by 2050 (12% in 2030).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Scenarios of technology diffusion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that both EVs and HPs reduce global emissions in all scenarios and at all times (Fig. 6): EVs by up to -1.5 GtCO2/y (-29% of total passenger road transport emissions without use of EVs), and HPs by up to -0.8 GtCO2/y (-46% of total residential heating emissions without use of HPs).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Net changes in total emissions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“These thresholds roughly correspond to the emission intensity of gas power plants34, and are lower than the average emission intensity of global electricity generation in 2015 (around 740 gCO2eq/kWh, Supplementary Table 2).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [34] Ciez, R. E. & Whitacre, J. F. Examining different recycling processes for lithium-ion batteries. Nat. Sustain. 2, 148–156 (2019). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the ‘2°C scenario’, the power sector’s carbon intensity decreases 44% by 2030, and 74% by 2050 (relative to 2015).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Scenarios of technology diffusion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is the case in regions accounting for 52% of global demand for passenger road transport (31 regions), and in regions with 16% of global demand for household heating (25 regions).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Current emission intensities in transport and heating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Combined, they generate 24% of global fuel-combustion emissions and are the two major sources of direct carbon emissions by households1–5.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] de Coninck, H. et al. in Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 313–443 (IPCC, WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites [2] International Energy Agency Global EV Outlook 2017 (IEA/OECD, 2017).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Clarke, L. E. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014); https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415416.012 source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [4] Kennedy, C. Key threshold for electricity emissions. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 179–181 (2015). source
- Not matchedcites [5] Rogelj, J. et al. in Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 93–174 (IPCC, WMO, 2018).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Emission intensities in the power sector widely differ across the globe and will change over time3.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Clarke, L. E. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014); https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415416.012 source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Cumulative net changes can then be approximated based on the region-specific means of distributed intensities.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Net changes in GHG emissions
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Meeting policy objectives (such as emissions targets) is not achieved by means of maximising or minimising some target function (such as welfare or costs). Instead, the model is run iteratively until the target would be met with a chosen set of policies.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although such a combination of policies is unlikely in the real world, the scenario serves as a worst case analysis.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Scenarios of technology uptake
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Ranges of current and future electricity use per vehicle-kilometre were based on estimates by Cox et al.51 for 2015 (median: 0.19 kWh/v-km; 5th-95th percentile range: 0.13-0.24 kWh/v-km) and 2040 (median: 0.15 kWh/v-km; 5th-95th percentile range: 0.10-0.19 kWh/v-km, based on the ‘most likely automation’ scenario), including auxiliary power demand and charging losses.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Cox et al.51
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Electricity requirements (including background processes) are 37 kWh per kW of installed capacity (0.001 kWh/kWhth, based on the same lifetimes and operating hours as for HPs), and emissions of other sources are 30 kg CO2eq per kW (0.8 gCO2eq/kWhth)52.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [52] Zhang, S. et al. Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China. Energy 69, 247–257 (2014). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“For the battery production, non-electricity emissions were estimated at 3,200 kgCO2eq (21.3 gCO2eq/v-km), and battery cell electricity requirements at 5,000 kWh (0.034 kWh/v-km)51.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [51] Wernet, G. et al. The ecoinvent database version 3 (part I): overview and methodology. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 21, 1218–1230 (2016). source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is thus well suited to analyse existing technological trajectories as observed in recent historical data.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Electricity requirements for producing a medium-sized car (curb weight 1,600 kg) were estimated at 9,200 kWh (0.061 kWh/v-km), and emissions from other sources at 5,900 kgCO2eq (40 gCO2eq./v-km)52.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [52] Zhang, S. et al. Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China. Energy 69, 247–257 (2014). source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All policies included in the scenarios are designed to match as closely as possible real-world policy instruments, for example energy taxes, vehicle taxes, feed-in tariffs, subsidies, direct regulation or efficiency standards.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Scenarios of technology uptake
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The same literature source estimated that future efficiencies of HPs will improve by 30-50% until 2030, and 40-60% until 2050.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [33] Schlömer, S. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds. Edenhofer, O. et al.) 1329–1356 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“For the production and end-of-life stage of HPs, we estimated emissions from non-electricity sources at 830 kg CO2eq per kW of installed capacity52. 750 kg CO2eq of these emissions stem from the leakage of refrigerant liquids over the entire life-cycle, all included here in the production emissions.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [52] Zhang, S. et al. Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China. Energy 69, 247–257 (2014). source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While many combinations are possible, what matters for region-wide effects is the sum over all individual choices of cars and heating systems within one region in any given year.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Net changes in GHG emissions
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These scenarios were chosen so that they allowed to simulate the emission trade-offs from electrification as realistically as possible, given (i) what is likely from a current perspective, (ii) what would be likely in a (hypothetical) case of ambitious climate policies around the globe, and (iii) a worst-case scenario in which end-use electrification is not matched by power sector decarbonisation.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Scenarios of technology uptake
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As electricity requirements and embodied emissions of the production processes can be subject to uncertainty, we included a sensitivity analysis for a range of life-cycle parameters (Supplementary Figures 5 and 6).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Greenhouse gas emission intensities
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The FTT (Future Technology Transformation) family of models project the uptake of energy technologies in the future until 2050, by extending the current trajectory of technological change with a diffusion algorithm, which is calibrated on datasets of technology uptake in recent history (up to 2012 for power and transport, 2014 for heating) (Supplementary Tables 4 and 5).”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“The model is a discrete choice model in which choice options are weighted by their own popularity, a method that generates endogenous S-shaped technology diffusion curves67.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [67] Rogers, E. M. Diffusion of Innovations (Simon and Schuster, 2010).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“The model is regularly used in policy analyses and impact assessments for the European Commission and elsewhere73,74.”
§ Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time > Methods > Integrated assessment model
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [73] Mercure, J.-F. et al. in Study on the Macroeconomics of Energy and Climate Policies (European Commission, DG Energy, 2016).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites [74] E3ME Manual, Version 6 (Cambridge Econometrics, 2014); https://go.nature.com/2T1FIsO
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
The paper relies on this without support.
The spatial resolution of 59 world regions is considerably higher than any previous forward-looking life-cycle study of electric vehicles or heat pumps.
“Our analysis disaggregates global demand into 59 world regions, a spatial resolution which is considerably higher than in any previous forward-looking life-cycle study of EVs or HPs.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The structure of all sales remains distributed over time; people would not suddenly all buy economic small engine cars.
“While the mean efficiencies in each region can change over time, we assumed that the structure of all sales remains distributed, i.e. that people would not suddenly all buy economic small engine cars.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The average insulation efficiency of buildings gradually increases over time.
“For the heating sector, we furthermore assumed that the average insulation efficiency of buildings gradually increases over time (see Supplementary Methods 3).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Agents make comparisons between technology options that they individually see as available in their respective national markets, structured by pair-wise comparisons of distributed preferences.
“We assume that agents make comparisons between technology options that they individually see as available in their respective national markets, which we structure by pair-wise comparisons of distributed preferences.”
Citations
Cites
The ecoinvent database version 3 (part I): overview and methodology
Wernet, G., Bauer, C., Steubing, B., Reinhard, J., Moreno-Ruiz, E., & Weidema, B. (2016) · The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment · doi:10.1007/s11367-016-1087-8 · Cited by 5,564
Climate change 2014 : mitigation of climate change
Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., & Sokona, Y. (2014) · University of North Texas Digital Library (University of North Texas) · Cited by 1,637
Systems integration for global sustainability
Liu, J., Mooney, H. A., Hull, V., Davis, S. J., Gaskell, J. C., Hertel, T. W., Lubchenco, J., Seto, K. C., Gleick, P. H., Kremen, C., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1258832 · Cited by 1,397
Richardson, D. B. (2013) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2012.11.042 · Cited by 999
Examining different recycling processes for lithium-ion batteries
Ciez, R. E., & Whitacre, J. F. (2019) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0222-5 · Cited by 965
Hertwich, E. G., Gibon, T., Bouman, E. A., Arvesen, A., Suh, S., Heath, G. A., Bergesen, J. D., Ramírez, A., Vega‐Coloma, M., & Shi, L. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1312753111 · Cited by 831
Environmental policy integration: a state of the art review
Jordan, A., & Lenschow, A. (2010) · Environmental Policy and Governance · doi:10.1002/eet.539 · Cited by 815
Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment
Creutzig, F., Ravindranath, N. H., Berndes, G., Bolwig, S., Bright, R., Cherubini, F., Chum, H., Corbera, E., Delucchi, M., Faaij, A., et al. (2015) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.12205 · Cited by 752
Impact of uncoordinated plug-in electric vehicle charging on residential power demand
Muratori, M. (2018) · Nature Energy · doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0074-z · Cited by 695
Fontaras, G., Zacharof, N.-G., & Ciuffo, B. (2017) · Progress in Energy and Combustion Science · doi:10.1016/j.pecs.2016.12.004 · Cited by 686
Research works printed but not linked: 12
- Energy Agenda—Towards a Low-Carbon Energy Supply (Ministry of Economic Affairs of the Netherlands, 2017); https://go.nature.com/385jsT9
- Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Promotion of the Use of Energy from Renewable Sources—Analysis of the Final Compromise Text with a View to Agreement (Council of the European Union, 2018); https://go.nature.com/37XxTbO
- McGee, P. Electric cars’ green image blackens beneath the bonnet. Financial Times (8 November 2017); https://go.nature.com/3cf8YUf
- Sinn, H.-W. Are electric vehicles really so climate friendly? The Guardian (25 November 2019); https://go.nature.com/396bqup
- Cox, B., Mutel, C. L., Bauer, C., Mendoza Beltran, A. & van Vuuren, D. P. Uncertain environmental footprint of current and future battery electric vehicles. Environ. Sci. Technol. 52, 4989–4995 (2018). · DOI · Paper page
- Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends—1975 Through 2014 (US Environmental Protection Agency, 2018); https://go.nature.com/2HXxrja
- Solid and Gaseous Bioenergy Pathways: Input Values and GHG Emissions (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, 2014); https://go.nature.com/397sRLk
- Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Future Automotive Fuels and Powertrains in the European Context (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, 2014); https://go.nature.com/394f2xd
- Upstream Emissions of Fossil Fuel Feedstocks for Transport Fuels Consumed in the European Union (International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), 2014); https://go.nature.com/3cd7Lgp
- Knobloch, F., Mercure, J.-F., Pollitt, H., Chewpreecha, U. & Lewney, R. in Technical Study on the Macroeconomics of Energy and Climate Policies (European Commission, DG Energy, 2017); https://go.nature.com/3cdndJl
- Cambridge Econometrics in Final Report for the European Commission (DG Energy, 2013); https://go.nature.com/2PvVFoK
- E3ME Manual, Version 6 (Cambridge Econometrics, 2014); https://go.nature.com/2T1FIsO
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries
Xu, C., Dai, Q., Gaines, L., Hu, M., Tukker, A., & Steubing, B. (2020) · Communications Materials · doi:10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x · Cited by 898
Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation
Ueckerdt, F., Bauer, C., Dirnaichner, A., Everall, J., Sacchi, R., & Luderer, G. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01032-7 · Cited by 709
Elalfy, D. A., Gouda, E. A. A., Kotb, M. F., Bureš, V., & Sedhom, B. E. (2024) · Energy Strategy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.esr.2024.101482 · Cited by 629
Sacchi, R., Terlouw, T., Siala, K., Dirnaichner, A., Bauer, C., Cox, B., Mutel, C., Daioglou, V., & Luderer, G. (2022) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.112311 · Cited by 640
A comprehensive review on heat pipe based battery thermal management systems
Weragoda, D. M., Tian, G., Burkitbayev, A., Lo, K. H., & Zhang, T. (2023) · Applied Thermal Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2023.120070 · Cited by 352
Devlin, A., Kossen, J., Goldie-Jones, H., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38123-2 · Cited by 256
Change, I. P. O. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157926.004 · Cited by 379
Chen, Q., Lai, X., Gu, H., Tang, X., Gao, F., Han, X., & Zheng, Y. (2022) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133342 · Cited by 251
A Bilevel Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm for Capacitated Electric Vehicle Routing Problem
Jia, Y.-H., Mei, Y., & Zhang, M. (2021) · IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics · doi:10.1109/tcyb.2021.3069942 · Cited by 233
“According to [4], replacing conventional vehicles with EVs can contribute a lot to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.”
BackgroundHeating up the global heat pump market
Rosenow, J., Gibb, D., Nowak, T., et al. (2022) · Nature Energy · doi:10.1038/s41560-022-01104-8 · Cited by 222
Shafique, M., Rafiq, M., Azam, A., & Luo, X. (2021) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.106061 · Cited by 174
When, where and how can the electrification of passenger cars reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
Sacchi, R., Bauer, C., Cox, B., & Mutel, C. (2022) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.112475 · Cited by 168
Lander, L., Kallitsis, E., Hales, A., Edge, J. S., Korre, A., & Offer, G. J. (2021) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116737 · Cited by 174
Zhang, C., Zhao, X., Sacchi, R., & You, F. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-37373-4 · Cited by 177
“At a global scale, even if electri fi cation is not matched by power-sector decarbonization, using EVs has average lower GHG emissions than ICEVs in most individual countries in 2015, as suggested by Knobloch et al. 49 .”
Environmental benefits and household costs of clean heating options in northern China
Zhou, M., Liu, H., Peng, L., Qin, Y., Chen, D., Zhang, L., & Mauzerall, D. L. (2021) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-021-00837-w · Cited by 162
Life cycle assessment of recycling options for automotive Li-ion battery packs
Kallitsis, E., Korre, A., & Kelsall, G. H. (2022) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133636 · Cited by 149
Electric Vehicles: V2G for Rapid, Safe, and Green EV Penetration
Dik, A., Omer, S., & Boukhanouf, R. (2022) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en15030803 · Cited by 145
“Although this situation varies depending on the variety of energy sources used, under the global average electricity production rates, EVs may cause higher manufacturing emissions than conventional ICE vehicles due to high energy consumption in battery production processes [76,77].”
BackgroundInhibiting gas generation to achieve ultralong-lifespan lithium-ion batteries at low temperatures
Li, Z., Yao, N., Yu, L., Yao, Y., Jin, C., Yang, Y., Xiao, Y., Yue, X., Cai, W., Xu, L., et al. (2023) · Matter · doi:10.1016/j.matt.2023.04.012 · Cited by 131
Galimova, T., Ram, M., & Breyer, C. (2022) · Energy Reports · doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2022.10.343 · Cited by 141
Change, I. P. O. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157926.012 · Cited by 212
Franzò, S., & Nasca, A. (2021) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128005 · Cited by 134
Intelligent automation for sustainable tourism: a systematic review
Majid, G. M., Tussyadiah, I. P., Kim, Y. R., & Pal, A. (2023) · Journal of Sustainable Tourism · doi:10.1080/09669582.2023.2246681 · Cited by 135
“…impacts of electric vehicles still depend on the country’s electricity generation mix, a forward-looking study of electric vehicles in 59 world regions has found that emission reductions in the subsequent years will outweigh any temporary production-related increases (Knobloch et al., 2020).”
BackgroundRay, S., Kasturi, K., Patnaik, S., & Nayak, M. R. (2023) · Journal of Energy Storage · doi:10.1016/j.est.2023.108672 · Cited by 118
Can electric vehicles be good for Sub-Saharan Africa?
Collett, K. A., Hirmer, S. A., Dalkmann, H., et al. (2021) · Energy Strategy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.esr.2021.100722 · Cited by 108
“[17], in all SSA countries electrification of transport would reduce emissions immediately considering the current electricity mix.”
BackgroundDell’Aversano, S., Villante, C., Gallucci, K., Vanga, G., & Giuliano, A. D. (2024) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en17163995 · Cited by 114
Zhang, Q., Yan, J., Gao, H. O., & You, F. (2023) · Advances in Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.adapen.2023.100147 · Cited by 106
The many greenhouse gas footprints of green hydrogen
de Kleijne, K., de Coninck, H., van Zelm, R., Huijbregts, M. A. J., & Hanssen, S. V. (2022) · Sustainable Energy & Fuels · doi:10.1039/d2se00444e · Cited by 109
Self-citationSwitching to electric vehicles can lead to significant reductions of PM2.5 and NO2 across China
Wang, L., Chen, X., Zhang, Y., Li, M., Li, P., Jiang, L., Xia, Y., Li, Z., Li, J., Wang, L., et al. (2021) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.008 · Cited by 101
Chen, X., Li, Z., Gallagher, K. P., & Mauzerall, D. L. (2021) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117318 · Cited by 92
Zhang, C., Yan, J., & You, F. (2022) · Advances in Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.adapen.2022.100116 · Cited by 95
Worldwide greenhouse gas emissions of green hydrogen production and transport
de Kleijne, K., Huijbregts, M. A. J., Knobloch, F., van Zelm, R., Hilbers, J. P., de Coninck, H., & Hanssen, S. V. (2024) · Nature Energy · doi:10.1038/s41560-024-01563-1 · Cited by 100
“For the ‘grid-connected: power import’ configuration, we used additional information on the national 2030 grid mixes modelled for a 2 °C policy scenario 26 to supplement the local renewable capacity factor to reach an electrolyser utilization factor of 1.”
InfluentialSelf-citationRotaris, L., Giansoldati, M., & Scorrano, M. (2020) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2020.11.011 · Cited by 87
Jia, Y.-H., Mei, Y., & Zhang, M. (2022) · IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation · doi:10.1109/tevc.2022.3144142 · Cited by 87
Electrifying passenger road transport in India requires near-term electricity grid decarbonisation
Abdul-Manan, A. F. N., Zavaleta, V. G., Ágarwal, A. K., KALGHATGI, G. T., & Amer, A. A. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29620-x · Cited by 98
Jia, Y., Jibrin, R., & Görges, D. (2020) · IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology · doi:10.1109/tvt.2020.3044265 · Cited by 82
“I N RECENT years, the electric vehicle is attracting interest from the academic and industrial automotive sector due to its potential towards decarbonizing the mobility sector [1].”
BackgroundDongellini, M., Naldi, C., & Morini, G. (2021) · Energy Conversion and Management · doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2021.114022 · Cited by 72
Green hydrogen production: Integrating environmental and social criteria to ensure sustainability
Blohm, M., & Dettner, F. (2023) · Smart Energy · doi:10.1016/j.segy.2023.100112 · Cited by 83
Kallitsis, E., Lindsay, J. J., Chordia, M., Wu, B., Offer, G. J., & Edge, J. S. (2024) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141725 · Cited by 83
Zhao, Y., Wang, Z., Shen, Z. M., & Sun, F. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2017318118 · Cited by 86
Electric cars, ships, and their charging infrastructure – A comprehensive review
Mutarraf, M. U., Guan, Y., Xu, L., Su, C. L., Vásquez, J. C., & Guerrero, J. M. (2022) · Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments · doi:10.1016/j.seta.2022.102177 · Cited by 90
The Underestimated Role of the Heat Pump in Achieving China’s Goal of Carbon Neutrality by 2060
Yan, H., Zhang, C., Shao, Z., Kraft, M., & Wang, R. Z. (2022) · Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.eng.2022.08.015 · Cited by 78
Sustainable plug-in electric vehicle integration into power systems
Zhang, H., Hu, X., Hu, Z., & Moura, S. J. (2024) · Nature Reviews Electrical Engineering · doi:10.1038/s44287-023-00004-7 · Cited by 86
Prospects for Electric Vehicles
Barkenbus, J. N. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12145813 · Cited by 77
Bu, C., Cui, X., Li, R., Li, J., Zhang, Y., Wang, C., & Cai, W. (2020) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116265 · Cited by 77
Heating in Great Britain: An incumbent discourse coalition resists an electrifying future
Lowes, R., Woodman, B., & Speirs, J. F. (2020) · Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions · doi:10.1016/j.eist.2020.07.007 · Cited by 76
Re-thinking procurement incentives for electric vehicles to achieve net-zero emissions
Nunes, A., Woodley, L., & Rossetti, P. (2022) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-022-00862-3 · Cited by 78
“Conversely, more stringent thresholds (68,160 miles) are required in households that either (1) currently own an ICEV and would (absent replacing that vehicle with a new EV) continue to drive the ICEV (scenario 2, Fig.”
BackgroundInfluentialSpatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China
Zhang, D., Zhu, Z., Chen, S., Zhang, C., Lu, X., Zhang, X., Zhang, X., & Davidson, M. R. (2024) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2306517121 · Cited by 73
Charging Electric Vehicles Today and in the Future
Leijon, J., & Boström, C. (2022) · World Electric Vehicle Journal · doi:10.3390/wevj13080139 · Cited by 74
“by smart charging [55,56], and generally, purchasing a new EV rather than a new ICE vehicle may, in many countries, lead to lower life cycle emissions [57].”
BackgroundZhou, Y., Zheng, S., & Hensen, J. J. (2024) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2024.114466 · Cited by 71
Murugan, M., Elumalai, P. V., Vijayakumar, K., Babu, M., Kumar, K. S., Ganesh, M. A., Liu, K., & Prabhakar, S. (2025) · Energy Science & Engineering · doi:10.1002/ese3.2081 · Cited by 74
Material efficiency and climate change mitigation of passenger vehicles
Wolfram, P., Tu, Q., Heeren, N., Pauliuk, S., & Hertwich, E. G. (2020) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.13067 · Cited by 81
“(4) 1 For further information on the integration of energymixes from integrated assessmentmodels into LCA, please refer to thework by ( Beltran et al., 2018; Cox, Bauer, Beltran, vanVuuren, &Mutel, 2020; Knobloch et al., 2020).”
MethodFuture reductions of China’s transport emissions impacted by changing driving behaviour
Xia, Y., Liao, C., Chen, X. M., Zhu, Z., Chen, X., Wang, L., Jiang, R., Stettler, M. E. J., Angeloudis, P., & Gao, Z. (2023) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01173-x · Cited by 74
“To boost energy efficiency and replace fossil fuel usage, policy-makers widely consider vehicle electrification as a critical measure to decarbonizing road transport as the carbon intensities of electricity generation are less emission intensive 20,21 .”
BackgroundSacchi, R., Bauer, C., & Cox, B. L. (2021) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.0c07773 · Cited by 78
Chen, R., Xu, P., & Yao, H. (2023) · Environmental Impact Assessment Review · doi:10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107129 · Cited by 69
Ren, H., Ma, Z., Fong, M. L., et al. (2022) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119274 · Cited by 67
Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal
Mercure, J.-F., Sharpe, S., Vinuales, J. E., Ives, M. C., Grubb, M. J., Lam, A., Drummond, P., Pollitt, H., Knobloch, F., & Nijsse, F. J. M. M. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102359 · Cited by 79
Self-citationChen, W., Sun, X., Liu, L., Liu, X., Zhang, R., Zhang, S., Xue, J., Sun, Q., Wang, M., Li, X., et al. (2022) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2022.07.005 · Cited by 68
Yu, B., Long, J., Zhang, Y., et al. (2023) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122061 · Cited by 63
Integrating solar-powered electric vehicles into sustainable energy systems
Li, T. T., Zhao, P., Wang, Y., Li, S., Fei, J., Wang, Z., & Xiang, Y. (2025) · Nature Reviews Electrical Engineering · doi:10.1038/s44287-025-00181-7 · Cited by 66
“For example, Huawei’s intelligent PV solutions integrate with industries and homes, potentially optimizing destination charging to support grid stability 84 .”
Rebound effects undermine carbon footprint reduction potential of autonomous electric vehicles
Onat, N. C., Mandouri, J., Küçükvar, M., Sen, B., Abbasi, S. A., Alhajyaseen, W., KUTTY, A. A. K. A., Jabbar, R., Contestabile, M., & Hamouda, A. M. S. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-41992-2 · Cited by 71
“Future technology adoption is assumed to follow existing technological diffusion trajectories in each sector, as evidenced by market statistics, including an increase in electric vehicle adoption 13 .”
BackgroundInfluentialData needed to decarbonize paratransit in Sub-Saharan Africa
Collett, K. A., & Hirmer, S. A. (2021) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-021-00721-7 · Cited by 61
Sbrascini, L., Staffolani, A., Bottoni, L., Darjazi, H., Minnetti, L., Minicucci, M., & Nobili, F. (2022) · ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces · doi:10.1021/acsami.2c07888 · Cited by 60
Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment
Ren, Y., Sun, X., Wolfram, P., Zhao, S., Tang, X., Kang, Y., Zhao, D., & Zheng, X. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38182-5 · Cited by 68
Prospective life cycle assessment of sodium‐ion batteries made from abundant elements
Wickerts, S., Arvidsson, R., Nordelöf, A., Svanström, M., & Johansson, P. (2023) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.13452 · Cited by 72
Temporal regulation of renewable supply for electrolytic hydrogen
Zeyen, E., Riepin, I., & Brown, T. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad2239 · Cited by 63
Franzò, S., Nasca, A., & Chiesa, V. (2022) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132559 · Cited by 65
Liang, J. L., Qiu, Y. L., & Xing, B. (2022) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106170 · Cited by 61
Evaluating environmental benefits from driving electric vehicles: The case of Shanghai, China
Wei, F., Walls, W. D., Zheng, X., & Li, G. (2023) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2023.103749 · Cited by 66
Mintz‐Woo, K., Dennig, F., Liu, H., & Schinko, T. (2020) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2020.1831432 · Cited by 61
“Incentivizing purchases of electric vehicles, for example, could have signi fi cant value in reducing emissions, regardless of region (Knobloch et al., 2020).”
BackgroundBuresh, K., Apperley, M. D., & Booysen, M. J. (2020) · Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development · doi:10.1016/j.esd.2020.05.007 · Cited by 57
Tuffour, J. P., & Ewing, R. (2024) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2024.103625 · Cited by 55
Ou, Y., Kittner, N., Babaee, S., Smith, S. J., Nolte, C. G., & Loughlin, D. H. (2021) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117364 · Cited by 54
“[68] conclude that electric cars are less emission intensive than fossil-fuel-based alternatives in 53 global regions and achieve net emission benefits even under a moderate rate of power-sector decarbonization.”
BackgroundGiannousakis, A., Hilaire, J., Nemet, G. F., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R., Rodrigues, R., Baumstark, L., & Kriegler, E. (2020) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.119253 · Cited by 53
Comparative life cycle assessment of high performance lithium-sulfur battery cathodes
Lopez, S., Akizu‐Gardoki, O., & Lizundia, E. (2020) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124528 · Cited by 59
“Rechargeable batteries are key enablers to transit from the current fossil-fuel based transportation model to a sustainable and efficient renewable energy-based zero emissions transportation system (Knobloch et al., 2020).”
BackgroundCo-benefits of transport demand reductions from compact urban development in Chinese cities
Fu, X., Cheng, J., Peng, L., Zhou, M., Tong, D., & Mauzerall, D. L. (2024) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-024-01271-4 · Cited by 60
“We compared the energy use and emissions of the two scenarios (Supplementary Note 2).”
InfluentialAccelerating electric vehicle uptake favours greenhouse gas over air pollutant emissions
Mehlig, D., Staffell, I., Stettler, M. E. J., & ApSimon, H. M. (2023) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2023.103954 · Cited by 56
Driscoll, L. L., Jarvis, A., Madge, R., et al. (2024) · Joule · doi:10.1016/j.joule.2024.07.001 · Cited by 50
Millinger, M., Tafarte, P., Jordan, M., Hahn, A., Meisel, K., & Thrän, D. (2021) · Sustainable Energy & Fuels · doi:10.1039/d0se01067g · Cited by 52
Fang, Y. R., Peng, W., Urpelainen, J., Hossain, M. S., Qin, Y., Ma, T., Ren, M., Liu, X., Zhang, S., Huang, C., et al. (2023) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121636 · Cited by 47
A wolf in sheep's clothing: Exposing the structural violence of private electric automobility
Hosseini, K., & Stefaniec, A. (2023) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2023.103052 · Cited by 47
“Overall, although replacing private ICEVs with EVs can reduce GHG emissions [32,52] and improve air quality in urban areas [36], this shift”
Three Decades of Climate Mitigation Policy: What Has It Delivered?
Hoppe, J., Hinder, B., Rafaty, R., Patt, A., & Grubb, M. J. (2023) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-103821 · Cited by 57
Wohlschlager, D., Kigle, S., Schindler, V., Regett, A., & Fröhling, M. (2024) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123618 · Cited by 48
Transitioning to clean energy transportation services: Life-cycle cost analysis for vehicle fleets
Comello, S. D., Glenk, G., & Reichelstein, S. J. (2021) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116408 · Cited by 46
“The impending climate crisis [3, 4], in combination with concerns about local air pollution [5], provide a growing impetus to replace internal combustion engines with zero-emission drivetrains [6].”
BackgroundMultiple-Criteria-Based Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Design Problem
Schmidt, M., Żmuda-Trzebiatowski, P., Kiciński, M., Sawicki, P., & Lasak, K. (2021) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en14113214 · Cited by 45
Fleschutz, M., Bohlayer, M., Braun, M., et al. (2023) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121430 · Cited by 46
Jia, W.-J., & Chen, T. D. (2023) · Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2023.103693 · Cited by 48
Review of Energy in the Built Environment
Lampropoulos, I., AlSkaif, T. A., Schram, W., Bontekoe, E., Coccato, S., & van Sark, W. G. J. H. M. (2020) · Smart Cities · doi:10.3390/smartcities3020015 · Cited by 51
Spatiotemporal assessment of carbon emission reduction by shared bikes in Shenzhen, China
Lv, G., Zheng, S., & Chen, H. (2023) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2023.105011 · Cited by 46
The Value of Fast Transitioning to a Fully Sustainable Energy System: The Case of Turkmenistan
Satymov, R., Bogdanov, D., & Breyer, C. (2021) · IEEE Access · doi:10.1109/access.2021.3050817 · Cited by 42
“Highly efficient electric vehicles will cover the land mobility needs of future Turkmens while simultaneously cutting GHG emissions [41].”
BackgroundInfluentialSæther, S. R. (2022) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2022.01.010 · Cited by 46
Conditions for the broad application of prospective life cycle inventory databases
Steubing, B. R. P., Beltrán, A. M., & Sacchi, R. (2023) · The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment · doi:10.1007/s11367-023-02192-8 · Cited by 50
Rüdisüli, M., Romano, E., Eggimann, S., & Patel, M. K. (2022) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112794 · Cited by 42
Emissions of electric vehicle charging in future scenarios: The effects of time of charging
Arvesen, A., Völler, S., Hung, C. R., Krey, V., Korpås, M., & Strømman, A. H. (2021) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.13144 · Cited by 47
Historical patterns and sustainability implications of worldwide bicycle ownership and use
Chen, W., Carstensen, T. A., Wang, R., Derrible, S., Rueda, D. R., Nieuwenhuijsen, M. J., & Liu, G. (2022) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-022-00497-4 · Cited by 41
Ren, H., Ma, Z., Tse, C. F. N., et al. (2022) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119643 · Cited by 41
Hybrid vigor: Why hybrids with sustainable biofuels are better than pure electric vehicles
Gauto, M. A., Carazzolle, M. F., Pavan, M., de Abreu, R. S., Pereira, T. C., & Pereira, G. A. G. (2023) · Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development · doi:10.1016/j.esd.2023.101261 · Cited by 50
Wang, C., Cao, M., Jiang, H., et al. (2024) · IEEE Transactions on Emerging Topics in Computational Intelligence · doi:10.1109/tetci.2024.3444698 · Cited by 41
“Unlike the traditional vehicle routing problem, CEVRP requires simultaneous consideration of both the customer service order and the recharging schedules for electric vehicles [10], [11], [12].”
Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China
Schnell, J. L., Peters, D. R., Wong, D. C., Lu, X., Guo, H. F., Zhang, H., Kinney, P. L., & Horton, D. E. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001788 · Cited by 39
“In any case, recent work suggests that EVs will reduce CO2 emissions even without rapid decarbonization of the energy sector in most of the world (Knobloch et al., 2020).”
BackgroundA Dual-Population-Based Co-Evolutionary Algorithm for Capacitated Electric Vehicle Routing Problems
Wang, C., Qin, F., Xiang, X., Jiang, H., & Zhang, X. (2023) · IEEE Transactions on Transportation Electrification · doi:10.1109/tte.2023.3294588 · Cited by 39
Bogdanov, D., Satymov, R., & Breyer, C. (2024) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123647 · Cited by 42
Metadata
- Authors
- Knobloch, F., Hanssen, S. V., Lam, A., Pollitt, H., Salas, P., Chewpreecha, U., Huijbregts, M. A. J., & Mercure, J.-F.
- Affiliations
- Radboud University Nijmegen (NL)
- University of Macau (MO)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Cambridge Econometrics (United Kingdom) (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Knobloch, Florian
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Sustainability
- Published
- 2020-03-23
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 437-447
- ISSN
- 2398-9629 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7308170
- OpenAlex
- W3006678403
- Cited by
- 407
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 64 · 2025: 73 · 2024: 67 · 2023: 80 · 2022: 63 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 20
- FWCI
- 17.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Sustainability (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion)
- Radboud Repository (Radboud University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- European Commission (647224, HORIZON2020, 689150)
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/K007254/1, EP/N002504/1)
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/N013174/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Keywords
- electric vehicles, heat pumps, greenhouse gas emissions, power sector decarbonization, transport decarbonization, household heating, electrification policy, life cycle assessment, integrated assessment models
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
