Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate
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Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
More CMIP6 models simulate realistic ENSO nonlinear feedbacks.
“Besides some improvements in the representation of the tropical Pacific climate 20 , more CMIP6 models simulate realistic ENSO nonlinear feedbacks 7 .”
From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [7]
CMIP6 models exhibit a notably higher inter-model consensus than CMIP5 models under a high emission scenario.
“However, CMIP6 models exhibit a notably higher inter-model consensus than CMIP5 models under a high emission scenario 7 .”
From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [7]
The IPCC AR6 statement on ENSO SST variability is contrary to studies 5-7 based on CMIP6 climate models.
“The IPCC AR6 statement on ENSO SST variability is contrary to studies 5-7 based on climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 8 (CMIP6).”
From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [7]
SST skewness in the eastern equatorial Pacific is an integral component of a parameter that also encapsulates skewness in the central Pacific to depict ENSO nonlinearity as a whole.
“SST skewness in the eastern equatorial Pacific is an integral component of a parameter that also encapsulates skewness in the central Pacific to depict ENSO nonlinearity as a whole 7,10 .”
From Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as [7]
Cites
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Yeh, S.-W., An, S.-I., Cobb, K. M., Collins, M., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Kug, J.-S., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2743 · Cited by 891 · see citing works
Self-citationContinued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization
Wang, G., Cai, W., Gan, B., Wu, L., Santoso, A., Lin, X., Chen, Z., & McPhaden, M. J. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3351 · Cited by 227 · see citing works
Self-citationHow Does El Niño–Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming—A First Look at CMIP6
Fredriksen, H., Berner, J., Subramanian, A. C., & Capotondi, A. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl090640 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
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Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability
Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M., Dong, B., Maidment, R. I., Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., et al. (2023) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x · Cited by 383 · see citing works
Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
Cai, W., Ng, B., Wang, G., Santoso, A., Wu, L., & Yang, K. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Self-citationVisioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Goddard, P. B. (2023) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003851 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
- Authors
- Cai, W., Santoso, A., Collins, M., Dewitte, B., Karamperidou, C., Kug, J.-S., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., Taschetto, A. S., Timmermann, A., Wu, L., Yeh, S.-W., Wang, G., Ng, B., Jia, F., Yang, Y., Ying, J., Zheng, X.-T., Bayr, T., Brown, J. R., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K. M., Gan, B., Geng, T., Ham, Y.-G., Jin, F.-F., Jo, H.-S., Li, X., Lin, X., McGregor, S., Park, J.-H., Stein, K., Yang, K., Zhang, L., & Zhong, W.
- Affiliations
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Universidad Católica del Norte (CL)
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- Pohang University of Science and Technology (KR)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- UNSW Sydney (AU)
- Institute for Basic Science (KR)
- Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (CN)
- Hanyang University (KR)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Beijing Normal University (CN)
- Ministry of Natural Resources (CN)
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- Georgia Institute of Technology (US)
- Ocean University of China (CN)
- Chonnam National University (KR)
- Monash University (AU)
- Sun Yat-sen University (CN)
- Corresponding author
- Cai, Wenju
- ORCID
- Cai, Wenju
- Santoso, Agus
- Collins, Matthew
- Dewitte, Boris
- Karamperidou, Christina
- Kug, Jong-Seong
- Lengaigne, Matthieu
- McPhaden, Michael J.
- Stuecker, Malte F.
- Taschetto, Andréa S.
- Timmermann, Axel
- Wu, Lixin
- Yeh, Sang-Wook
- Wang, Guojian
- Ng, Benjamin
- Jia, Fan
- Yang, Yun
- Ying, Jun
- Zheng, Xiao-Tong
- Bayr, Tobias
- Brown, Josephine R.
- Capotondi, Antonietta
- Cobb, Kim M.
- Gan, Bolan
- Geng, Tao
- Ham, Yoo-Geun
- Jin, Fei-Fei
- Jo, Hyun-Su
- Li, Xichen
- Lin, Xiaopei
- McGregor, Shayne
- Park, Jae-Heung
- Stein, Karl
- Yang, Kai
- Zhang, Li
- Zhong, Wenxiu
- Venue
- Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2021-08-17
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 628-644
- ISSN
- 2662-138X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3196149870
- Cited by
- 702
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 138 · 2025: 185 · 2024: 156 · 2023: 123 · 2022: 88 · 2021: 10 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 8.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- archimer.ifremer.fr
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (publishedVersion)
- Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Institutional Archive of Ifremer (French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- UNSWorks (UNSW Sydney) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-18-CE01-0012)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/N018486/1, NE/S004645/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- ENSO, anthropogenic warming, sea surface temperature variability, Pacific-North American teleconnection, natural climate variability, large ensemble simulations, high-resolution modeling, model bias
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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