The Choice of Baseline Period Influences the Assessments of the Outcomes of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
The specifics of the simulated injection choices in the case of stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are part of the crucial context necessary for meaningfully discussing the impacts that a deployment of SAI would have on the planet. One of the main choices is the desired amount of cooling that the injections are aiming to achieve. Previous SAI simulations have usually either simulated a fixed amount of injection, resulting in a fixed amount of warming being offset, or have specified one target temperature, so that the amount of cooling is only dependent on the underlying trajectory of greenhouse gases. Here, we use three sets of SAI simulations achieving different amounts of global mean surface cooling while following a middle‐of‐the‐road greenhouse gas emission trajectory: one SAI scenario maintains temperatures at 1.5°C above preindustrial levels (PI), and two other scenarios which achieve additional cooling to 1.0°C and 0.5°C above PI. We demonstrate that various surface impacts scale proportionally with respect to the amount of cooling, such as global mean precipitation changes, changes to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and to the Walker Cell. We also highlight the importance of the choice of the baseline period when comparing the SAI responses to one another and to the greenhouse gas emission pathway. This analysis leads to policy‐relevant discussions around the concept of a reference period altogether, and to what constitutes a relevant, or significant, change produced by SAI.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
Held, I. M., & Soden, B. J. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3990.1 · Cited by 4,981 · see citing works
Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system
Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105 · Cited by 3,982 · see citing works
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)
Danabasoglu, G., Lamarque, J., Bacmeister, J. T., Bailey, D. A., DuVivier, A. K., Edwards, J., Emmons, L. K., Fasullo, J., García, R. R., Gettelman, A., et al. (2020) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2019ms001916 · Cited by 3,273 · see citing works
The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., et al. (2020) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020 · Cited by 1,815 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Here we have focused on the amount of cooling that SO2 is chosen to produce, a method that is similar to the scenario exploration under different GHG concentrations in the IPCC scenarios (Meinshausen et al., 2020).”
MethodUncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
Deser, C., Phillips, A. S., Bourdette, V., & Teng, H. (2010) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x · Cited by 1,773 · see citing works
Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma?
Crutzen, P. J. (2006) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y · Cited by 1,541 · see citing works
El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity
Timmermann, A., An, S., Kug, J., Jin, F., Cai, W., Capotondi, A. M., Cobb, K. M., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., et al. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6 · Cited by 1,258 · see citing works
Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing
Vecchi, G. A., Soden, B. J., Wittenberg, A. T., Held, I. M., Leetmaa, A., & Harrison, M. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04744 · Cited by 1,041 · see citing works
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Yeh, S.-W., An, S.-I., Cobb, K. M., Collins, M., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Kug, J.-S., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2743 · Cited by 891 · see citing works
Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Collins, M., Dewitte, B., Karamperidou, C., Kug, J.-S., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., Taschetto, A. S., et al. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-021-00199-z · Cited by 702 · see citing works
Liu, X., Ma, P.-L., Wang, H., Tilmes, S., Singh, B., Easter, R. C., Ghan, S. J., & Rasch, P. J. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-505-2016 · Cited by 671 · see citing works
Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Garuba, O. A., Hu, A., & Nadiga, B. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl086075 · Cited by 467 · see citing works
Regional climate responses to geoengineering with tropical and Arctic SO 2 injections
Robock, A. D., Oman, L. D., & Stenchikov, G. L. (2008) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2008jd010050 · Cited by 464 · see citing works
Haszeldine, R. S., Flude, S., Johnson, G., & Scott, V. (2018) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0447 · Cited by 357 · see citing works
Gao, Y., Gao, X., & Zhang, X. (2017) · Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.eng.2017.01.022 · Cited by 351 · see citing works
Response of the Intertropical Convergence Zone to Climate Change: Location, Width, and Strength
Byrne, M. P., Pendergrass, A. G., Rapp, A. D., & Wodzicki, K. R. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0110-5 · Cited by 325 · see citing works
Tilmes, S., Fasullo, J., Lamarque, J., Marsh, D. R., Mills, M., Alterskjær, K., Muri, H., Kristjánsson, J. E., Boucher, O., Schulz, M., et al. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50868 · Cited by 318 · see citing works
Self-citationKravitz, B., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., Boucher, O., English, J. M., Irvine, P. J., Jones, A., Lawrence, M. G., MacCracken, M., Muri, H., et al. (2015) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Atmospheric Energy Constraint on Global-Mean Precipitation Change
Pendergrass, A. G., & Hartmann, D. L. (2013) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00163.1 · Cited by 279 · see citing works
Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Mills, M. J., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., Lamarque, J., Tribbia, J. J., & Vitt, F. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2017jd026874 · Cited by 275 · see citing works
Self-citationHalving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards
Irvine, P., Emanuel, K., He, J., Horowitz, L. W., Vecchi, G., & Keith, D. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5°C Paris target
MacMartin, D. G., Ricke, K., & Keith, D. W. (2018) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0454 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
Self-citationSimpson, I. R., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Mills, M. J., Fasullo, J. T., & Pendergrass, A. G. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd031093 · Cited by 202 · see citing works
Self-citationBayr, T., Dommenget, D., Martin, T. V., & Power, S. B. (2014) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2091-y · Cited by 200 · see citing works
Niemeier, U., Schmidt, H., Alterskjær, K., & Kristjánsson, J. E. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2013jd020445 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
Enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades
Grothe, P. R., Cobb, K. M., Liguori, G., Lorenzo, E. D., Capotondi, A. M., Lü, Y., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Southon, J. R., Santos, G. M., et al. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl083906 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., Mills, M. J., Lamarque, J., Tribbia, J. J., & Vitt, F. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2017jd026868 · Cited by 173 · see citing works
A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments
Nowack, P. J., Abraham, N. L., Maycock, A. C., Braesicke, P., Gregory, J. M., Joshi, M., Osprey, A., & Pyle, J. A. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2451 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
What is the limit of climate engineering by stratospheric injection of SO <sub>2</sub> ?
Niemeier, U., & Timmreck, C. (2015) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
Visioni, D., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Boucher, O., Jones, A., Lurton, T., Martine, M., Mills, M. J., Nabat, P., Niemeier, U., et al. (2021) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Self-citationKravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., Mills, M. J., Cheng, W., Dagon, K., Glanville, A. A., Lamarque, J., Simpson, I. R., et al. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd030329 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
Self-citationScenarios for modeling solar radiation modification
MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., Richter, J. H., Felgenhauer, T., Lee, W., Morrow, D. R., Parson, E. A., & Sugiyama, M. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2202230119 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Self-citationGeoengineering Earth's radiation balance to mitigate climate change from a quadrupling of CO2
Bala, G., Caldeira, K., & Duffy, P. B. (2003) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/s0921-8181(02)00195-9 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Geoengineering as an optimization problem
Ban‐Weiss, G., & Caldeira, K. (2010) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034009 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time?
Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Bauer, N., Baumstark, L., Fujimori, S., Popp, A., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2018) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0457 · Cited by 127 · see citing works
Understanding the Intermodel Spread in Global-Mean Hydrological Sensitivity*
Fläschner, D., Mauritsen, T., & Stevens, B. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0351.1 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
The World Avoided by the Montreal Protocol
Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., Hurwitz, M., O'Connor, F., Bushell, A., Johnson, C. E., & Pyle, J. (2008) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2008gl034590 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Walker circulation response to extratropical radiative forcing
Kang, S. M., Xie, S., Shin, Y., Kim, H., Hwang, Y., Stuecker, M. F., Xiang, B., & Hawcroft, M. (2020) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abd3021 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal
Warszawski, L., Kriegler, E., Lenton, T. M., Gaffney, O., Jacob, D., Klingenfeld, D., Koide, R., Costa, M. M., Messner, D., Nakićenović, N., et al. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec · Cited by 105 · see citing works
Is Turning Down the Sun a Good Proxy for Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering?
Visioni, D., MacMartin, D. G., & Kravitz, B. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2020jd033952 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Self-citationReduced Poleward Transport Due to Stratospheric Heating Under Stratospheric Aerosols Geoengineering
Visioni, D., Simpson, I. R., MacMartin, D. G., Richter, J. H., Kravitz, B., & Lee, W. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl089470 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Self-citationHolz, C., Siegel, L. S., Johnston, E., Jones, A. P., & Sterman, J. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac0c1 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
Lehner, F., & Deser, C. (2023) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/accf30 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Hydrological sensitivity to greenhouse gases and aerosols in a global climate model
Kvalevåg, M. M., Samset, B. H., & Myhre, G. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50318 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Tension between reducing sea-level rise and global warming through solar-radiation management
Irvine, P. J., Sriver, R. L., & Keller, K. M. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1351 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Davis, N., Visioni, D., García, R. R., Kinnison, D. E., Marsh, D. R., Mills, M. J., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., Bardeen, C., Gettelman, A., et al. (2023) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2022ms003579 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Self-citationVisioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., Lee, W. R., Kravitz, B., Jones, A., Haywood, J. M., & MacMartin, D. G. (2023) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-663-2023 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
Self-citationNavigating Potential Hype and Opportunity in Governing Marine Carbon Removal
Boettcher, M., Brent, K. A., Buck, H. J., Low, S., McLaren, D. P., & Mengis, N. (2021) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.664456 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Halving warming with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering moderates policy-relevant climate hazards
Irvine, P. J., & Keith, D. W. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab76de · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Bednarz, E., Butler, A. H., Visioni, D., Zhang, Y., Kravitz, B., & MacMartin, D. G. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Self-citationSeasonally Modulated Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Alters the Climate Outcomes
Visioni, D., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Richter, J. H., Tilmes, S., & Mills, M. J. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl088337 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Self-citationHemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection
Zhang, Y., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., & Kravitz, B. (2024) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-15-191-2024 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Self-citationLaakso, A., Niemeier, U., Visioni, D., Tilmes, S., & Kokkola, H. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-22-93-2022 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Self-citationFrom moral hazard to risk-response feedback
Jebari, J., Táíwò, O. O., Andrews, T. M., Aquila, V., Beckage, B., Belaia, M., Clifford, M., Fuhrman, J., Keller, D. P., Mach, K. J., et al. (2021) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100324 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Self-citationInstitutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal
Brecha, R. J., Ganti, G., Lamboll, R., Nicholls, Z., Hare, B., Lewis, J., Meinshausen, M. A., Schaeffer, M., Smith, C., & Gidden, M. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Hydrological Consequences of Solar Geoengineering
Ricke, K., Wan, J., Saenger, M., & Lutsko, N. J. (2023) · Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences · doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-031920-083456 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
The legal character and operational relevance of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal
Rajamani, L., & Werksman, J. (2018) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0458 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing
Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M. D. F., Hodnebrog, Ø., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Kasoar, M. R., Kharin, V. V., et al. (2017) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Mamalakis, A., Barnes, E. A., & Ebert‐Uphoff, I. (2022) · Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems · doi:10.1175/aies-d-22-0058.1 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
An Arctic ozone hole in 2020 if not for the Montreal Protocol
Wilka, C., Solomon, S., Kinnison, D. E., & Tarasick, D. W. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-21-15771-2021 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Dependence of strategic solar climate intervention on background scenario and model physics
Fasullo, J., & Richter, J. H. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-163-2023 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Persistent polar ocean warming in a strategically geoengineered climate
Fasullo, J., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Mills, M. J., & Simpson, I. R. (2018) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0249-7 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationPotential for perceived failure of stratospheric aerosol injection deployment
Keys, P. W., Barnes, E. A., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Hurrell, J. W., & Bell, C. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2210036119 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Guo, A., Moore, J. C., & Ji, D. (2018) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-18-8689-2018 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Impact of the Latitude of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on the Southern Annular Mode
Bednarz, E., Visioni, D., Richter, J. H., Butler, A. H., & MacMartin, D. G. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl100353 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Self-citationTropical Pacific climate variability under solar geoengineering: impacts on ENSO extremes
Malik, A., Nowack, P. J., Haigh, J. D., Cao, L., Atique, L., & Plancherel, Y. (2020) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-20-15461-2020 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation
Gabriel, C., & Robock, A. D. (2015) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-15-11949-2015 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Cao, L., Bala, G., Zheng, M., & Caldeira, K. (2015) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/2015jd023901 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Assessing Outcomes in Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenarios Shortly After Deployment
Hueholt, D. M., Barnes, E. A., Hurrell, J. W., Richter, J. H., & Sun, L. (2023) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003488 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Communication of solar geoengineering science: Forms, examples, and explanation of skewing
Reynolds, J. L. (2022) · The Anthropocene Review · doi:10.1177/20530196221095569 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Inferring Aerosol Cooling from Hydrological Sensitivity
DelSole, T., Yan, X., & Tippett, M. K. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0364.1 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Data from: Scenarios for modeling solar radiation modification
Visioni, D. (2022) · eCommons (Cornell University) · doi:10.7298/xr82-sv86 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 73 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Visioni, D., Robock, A., Haywood, J., Henry, M., Tilmes, S., MacMartin, D., Kravitz, B., Doherty, S., Moore, J. C., Lennard, C., et al. (2024) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Self-citationHemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection
Zhang, Y., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., & Kravitz, B. (2024) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-15-191-2024 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Self-citationIdentifying Climate Impacts From Different Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Strategies in UKESM1
Wells, A., Henry, M., Bednarz, E., MacMartin, D. G., Jones, A., Dalvi, M., & Haywood, J. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef004358 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Self-citationGoddard, P. B., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., & Lee, W. (2023) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2023jd039434 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citationHueholt, D. M., Barnes, E. A., Hurrell, J. W., & Morrison, A. L. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-47656-z · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Narenpitak, P., Kongkulsiri, S., Tomkratoke, S., & Sirisup, S. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-73149-6 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Jiang, J. K., Xia, Y. P., Cao, L., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Fu, J., & Jiang, G. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef004364 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationBrody, E., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Richter, J. H., & Tye, M. R. (2024) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad53f3 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Self-citationBednarz, E., Visioni, D., Butler, A. H., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., & Tilmes, S. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl104726 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationZhao, M., Cao, L., Visioni, D., & MacMartin, D. G. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef004474 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationHack, M., McNeill, V. F., Steingart, D., & Wagner, G. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-20447-2 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies
Brody, E., Zhang, Y., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., & Bednarz, E. (2025) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationXavier, A., Bala, G., Roose, S., & Usha, K. H. (2024) · Oxford Open Climate Change · doi:10.1093/oxfclm/kgae016 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
A Climate Intervention Dynamical Emulator (CIDER) for scenario space exploration
Farley, J., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., Bednarz, E., Duffey, A., Henry, M., & Akherati, A. (2026) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-19-1809-2026 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationDuffey, A., & Irvine, P. J. (2024) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad9f91 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Response of Tipping Elements to Different Strategies of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
Zhao, M., Cao, L., Visioni, D., & MacMartin, D. G. (2025) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2025ef006736 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationBad science and good intentions prevent effective climate actionPreprint
Taylor, G., Wadhams, P., Visioni, D., Goreau, T., Field, L. A., & Kuswanto, H. (2023) · doi:10.31223/x5dt25 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationWang, C., Visioni, D., Chua, G., & Bednarz, E. M. (2026) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-26-1339-2026 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationMayer, K. J., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2024) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad9b43 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Xavier, A., Bala, G., & Kallihosur, T. (2026) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae6714 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
The impact of stratospheric aerosol injection: a regional case study
Cohen, S. L., Hurrell, J. W., & Lombardozzi, D. (2025) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2025.1582747 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
The impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Antarctic ice loss depend on injection locationPreprint
Goddard, P. B., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., & Lee, W. (2023) · doi:10.22541/essoar.168677217.72510223/v1
Self-citationVisioni, D. (2024) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2406-ac1
Self-citationBad science and good intentions prevent effective climate actionPreprint
Taylor, G., Wadhams, P., Visioni, D., Goreau, T., Field, L. A., & Kuswanto, H. (2024) · doi:10.31223/x58107
Self-citationVisioni, D., Narenpitak, P., & Honegger, M. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-96026-7.00170-3
Self-citationVisioni, D., Narenpitak, P., & Honegger, M. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-15748-6.00003-4
Self-citationAssessing the performance of solar radiation management geoengineering simulations
Wehner, M. F. (2025) · Frontiers of Earth Science · doi:10.1007/s11707-025-1180-z
He, C., Peng, Y., & Yu, P. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae2282
Quantifying the Effectiveness of Multiple SAI Strategies Across Different Dimensions
Wang, C., Visioni, D., Lee, W., Duffey, A., Wentland, C. R., Wheeler, L., Wagman, B., Turbeville, S. M., Watanabe, S., & Henry, M. (2026) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2026ef008696
Self-citationGao, Y., Xia, L., Wang, J., & Gao, C. (2026) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1029/2025jc023882
Gao, C., Gao, Y., Wang, J., & Xia, L. (2026) · The Innovation Geoscience · doi:10.59717/j.xinn-geo.2026.100216
The policy relevance of climate-change scenarios for biodiversity research
Schoeman, D. S., Meyer, A. L. S., Poloczanska, E. S., Pörtner, H., Lenton, A. A., Everett, J. D., Trisos, C. H., & Richardson, A. J. (2026) · Nature Reviews Biodiversity · doi:10.1038/s44358-026-00193-7
Visioni, D., Robock, A. D., Duffey, A., Henry, M., Hirasawa, H., Lee, W., Wang, C., Roberts, K., Watanabe, S., Reboita, M. S., et al. (2026) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-19-8469-2026
Self-citationSian, K. T. C. L. K., Egbebiyi, T. S., Hakam, O., Lee, W., & Ongoma, V. (2026) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2026.1884589
- Authors
- Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Goddard, P. B.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- Cornell University (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Indiana University Bloomington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Visioni, D.
- Venue
- Earth's Future
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2023-08
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 8
- ISSN
- 2328-4277 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4386143500
- Cited by
- 35
- References
- 73
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 5
- FWCI
- 3.93
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth s Future (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- CU Scholar (University of Colorado Boulder) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Funders
- NOAA Research (NA22OAR4320151)
- National Science Foundation (CBET‐2038246, SES‐1754740)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- stratospheric aerosol injection, geoengineering, climate change mitigation, precipitation change, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Walker circulation, reference period
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review