Cited by 35Climate Change and GeoengineeringAtmospheric aerosols and cloudsClimate variability and models

The Choice of Baseline Period Influences the Assessments of the Outcomes of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

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Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Goddard, P. B.·2023·Earth's Future

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Abstract

The specifics of the simulated injection choices in the case of stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are part of the crucial context necessary for meaningfully discussing the impacts that a deployment of SAI would have on the planet. One of the main choices is the desired amount of cooling that the injections are aiming to achieve. Previous SAI simulations have usually either simulated a fixed amount of injection, resulting in a fixed amount of warming being offset, or have specified one target temperature, so that the amount of cooling is only dependent on the underlying trajectory of greenhouse gases. Here, we use three sets of SAI simulations achieving different amounts of global mean surface cooling while following a middle‐of‐the‐road greenhouse gas emission trajectory: one SAI scenario maintains temperatures at 1.5°C above preindustrial levels (PI), and two other scenarios which achieve additional cooling to 1.0°C and 0.5°C above PI. We demonstrate that various surface impacts scale proportionally with respect to the amount of cooling, such as global mean precipitation changes, changes to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and to the Walker Cell. We also highlight the importance of the choice of the baseline period when comparing the SAI responses to one another and to the greenhouse gas emission pathway. This analysis leads to policy‐relevant discussions around the concept of a reference period altogether, and to what constitutes a relevant, or significant, change produced by SAI.

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Authors
Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Goddard, P. B.
Affiliations
  • NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
  • Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
  • Cornell University (US)
  • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
  • Indiana University Bloomington (US)
Corresponding author
Visioni, D.
Venue
Earth's Future
Published
2023-08
Volume
11
Issue
8
ISSN
2328-4277 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W4386143500
Cited by
35
References
73
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 5
FWCI
3.93
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Earth s Future (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • CU Scholar (University of Colorado Boulder) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
Funders
  • NOAA Research (NA22OAR4320151)
  • National Science Foundation (CBET‐2038246, SES‐1754740)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Keywords
stratospheric aerosol injection, geoengineering, climate change mitigation, precipitation change, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Walker circulation, reference period

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