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Cited by 76Cryospheric studies and observationsGeology and Paleoclimatology ResearchGeophysics and Gravity Measurements

Simple models for late Holocene and present-day Patagonian glacier fluctuations and predictions of a geodetically detectable isostatic response

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Ivins, Erik R., James, Thomas S.·1999·Geophysical Journal International
DOI 10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00899.x
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Abstract

The late Holocene glacial moraine chronology in the southernmost South American Andes includes four 14 C dated Neoglacial advances and retreats. These are used as proxy information to characterize mass fluctuation of the Patagonian icefields during the last 5000 years. Modelled ice loads force a phase-lagged viscoelastic gravitational deformation of the solid Earth. The ancient glacier fluctuations may, therefore, drive present-day crustal motion even in the absence of present-day ice mass imbalance. Numerical models show that such rates of present-day uplift and subsidence are larger than those driven by the viscous memory of late Pleistocene deglaciation. Both spherical and flat-earth models are employed, the latter being used to study exhaustively the effects of glacial load history on the predicted vertical crustal velocity. Recent assessment of net mass balance from 1944 to 1985 indicates that the Southern Patagonian icefield has significantly deteriorated due to snout retreat and thinning. Volume loss rates are estimated at about 3.4–9.3 km3 yr−1. The predicted vertical isostatic response to this recession and to the modelled Holocene Neoglaciations is at a marginally detectable level (≈1 mm yr−1) if the mantle/asthenosphere beneath Patagonia has a viscosity of about 1021 Pa s. However, for reduced mantle viscosities, the younger Holocene glacial load histories predict larger signatures. In fact, if the viscosity is about 2 × 1020 Pa s, or lower, then geodetically detectable vertical motion may be driven by a regional Little Ice Age (LIA) (1400–1750 AD) glacier advance and subsequent 20th century retreat. Although this value for mantle viscosity is lower than thought typical of continental shield mantle (≈1021 Pa s), it is consistent with inversions for post-seismic relaxation time constants in island arc environments and in regions with significant Neogene continental tectonism. In the viscosity regime of 5 × 1018–2 × 1019 Pa s, the predicted rates of vertical crustal motion are similar to those presently occurring in Fennoscandia and Hudson Bay (5–10 mm yr−1). Geodetic data may be sensitive to the time-integrated growth and subsequent retreat of Patagonian glacier ice mass over the last 600 years.

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  • The last recorded glacial advance was the Little Ice Age with an apex around 1630 CE.

    “A glacial minimum must have been attained around 13 000 yr BP, but several glacial advances were recorded since that time, and the last recorded one was the Little Ice Age (LIA) with an apex around 1630 CE, well dated by terminal moraines around the present-day NPI and SPI (Ivins andJames, 1999, 2004;McCulloch et al., 2000;Glasser et al., 2004Glasser et al., , 2008Glasser et al., , 2011;;Davies”

    From Fast uplift in the southern Patagonian Andes due to long- and short-term deglaciation and the asthenospheric window underneath (2024) · cites this paper as Ivins and James, 1999

    The Introduction identifies the Little Ice Age as the last of several Neoglacial advances. It does not date its apex to around 1630 CE: it describes the advance’s timing as uncertain and reports moraine-based maxima in the mid-18th and mid-19th centuries. Section 6.3.6 places the maximum in the late 19th century in the authors’ preferred model. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • A glacial minimum was attained around 13 000 yr BP.

    “A glacial minimum must have been attained around 13 000 yr BP, but several glacial advances were recorded since that time, and the last recorded one was the Little Ice Age (LIA) with an apex around 1630 CE, well dated by terminal moraines around the present-day NPI and SPI (Ivins andJames, 1999, 2004;McCulloch et al., 2000;Glasser et al., 2004Glasser et al., , 2008Glasser et al., , 2011;;Davies”

    From Fast uplift in the southern Patagonian Andes due to long- and short-term deglaciation and the asthenospheric window underneath (2024) · cites this paper as Ivins and James, 1999

    The Introduction (page unavailable) says Patagonia was substantially deglaciated by 13 ka, supporting markedly reduced glaciation around that time. It does not establish that a glacial minimum was attained specifically around 13,000 yr BP; it also says the icefields may have been substantially smaller throughout 13–5 ka. (LLM, conf=0.82)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Previous GIA studies infer a low asthenosphere viscosity (in the order of 10^18 Pa s) and a thin elastic lithosphere (∼35 km thick) to match the very high observed uplift rate budget.

    “To match the very high observed uplift rate budget, previous GIA studies infer a low asthenosphere viscosity (in the order of 10 18 Pa s) and a thin elastic lithosphere (∼ 35 km thick) (Ivins andJames, 1999, 2004;Klemann et al., 2007;Dietrich et al., 2010;Lange et al., 2014;Richter et al., 2016;Ávila and Dávila, 2020;Mark et al., 2022;Lenzano et al., 2023).”

    From Fast uplift in the southern Patagonian Andes due to long- and short-term deglaciation and the asthenospheric window underneath (2024) · cites this paper as Ivins and James, 1999

    Figure 11 (section 6.4.1; page not supplied) models Patagonian uplift with a 35 km lithosphere and mantle viscosities of 1–2 × 10^19 Pa s; Figure 13 considers a viscosity reduced by half. These are predicted responses, not parameters inferred by matching a very high observed uplift rate. The paper describes the motion as potentially geodetically detectable rather than reporting such an observational fit. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • The contribution of post-LGM deglaciation to present-day rock uplift rate was marginally addressed.

    “In addition, the contribution of post-LGM deglaciation to present-day rock uplift rate was marginally addressed (Ivins andJames, 1999, 2004;Klemann et al., 2007).”

    From Fast uplift in the southern Patagonian Andes due to long- and short-term deglaciation and the asthenospheric window underneath (2024) · cites this paper as Ivins and James, 1999

  • The rheologic and thermal structure of the reference model gives a lithospheric elastic thickness, Te, of ∼30 km, comparable to previous estimates underneath the SPI.

    “The rheologic and thermal structure of the reference model gives a lithospheric elastic thickness, T e (sensu Burov and Diament, 1995), of ∼ 30 km, comparable to previous estimates underneath the SPI based on GIA models (Ivins and James, 1999;Dietrich et al., 2010;Lange et al., 2014), heat flow data (Ávila and Dávila, 2018), waveform inversion (Robertson Maurice et al., 2003), and low-temperature”

    From Fast uplift in the southern Patagonian Andes due to long- and short-term deglaciation and the asthenospheric window underneath (2024) · cites this paper as Ivins and James, 1999

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Cites

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1 of the 81 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 6

  1. in Climate Since A.D. 1500, pp. 446-462, eds Bradley, R.S. & James, T.S., 1991. Post-glacial deformation, PhD thesis, Princeton
  2. Jones, P.D., Routledge, New York. University, Princeton.
  3. Clark, J.A., 1980. A numerical model of worldwide sea level changes on Maeda, Y., Nakada, M., Matsumoto, E. & Matsuda, I., 1992. Crustal a viscoelastic Earth, in Earth Rheology, Isostasy and Eustasy, tilting from Holocene sea-level observations along the east coast of pp. 525-534, ed.
  4. Mo ¨rner, N.A., Wiley Interscience, New York. Hokkaido in Japan and upper mantle rheology, Geophys. Res. L ett., Dirac, P.A.M., 1958. T he Principles of Quantum Mechanics, Oxford 16, 857-860.
  5. Heusser, C.J., Denton, G.H., Hauser, A., Andersen, B.G. & Lowell, T.V., Isostasy, Sea-level and Mantle Rheology, pp. 79-94, eds Sabadini, R., Lambeck, K. & Boschi, E., Kluwer, Dordrecht. 1996. Water fern (Azolla filiculoides Lam.) in southern Chile as an
  6. Stern, C.R. & Kilian, R., 1996. Role of the subducted slab, mantle of glacial isostasy: a historical review, Global planet. Change, 8, 95-106.

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Authors
Ivins, E. R., & James, T. S.
Affiliations
  • California Institute of Technology (US)
  • Geological Survey of Canada (CA)
ORCID
Venue
Geophysical Journal International
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
1999-09
Volume
138
Issue
3
Pages
601-624
ISSN
  • 0956-540X (ISSN-L)
  • 1365-246X
DOI
10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00899.x
OpenAlex
W2087867658
Cited by
76
References
81
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 4 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 3
FWCI
1.75
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
Geophysical Journal International (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Cryospheric studies and observations
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
Keywords
Patagonian Icefields, isostatic adjustment, Neoglacial, Southern Patagonian Icefield, mantle viscosity, Little Ice Age, vertical crustal movements, glacier mass balance, ice mass loss, postseismic relaxation, moraines

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