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A Longitudinal, Population-Based, Cohort Study of Childhood Asthma Followed to Adulthood
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: The outcome of childhood asthma in adults has been described in high-risk cohorts, but few population-based studies have reported the risk factors for persistence and relapse. METHODS: We assessed children born from April 1972 through March 1973 in Dunedin, New Zealand, repeatedly from 9 to 26 years of age with questionnaires, pulmonary-function tests, bronchial-challenge testing, and allergy testing. RESULTS: By the age of 26 years, 51.4 percent of 613 study members with complete respiratory data had reported wheezing at more than one assessment. Eighty-nine study members (14.5 percent) had wheezing that persisted from childhood to 26 years of age, whereas 168 (27.4 percent) had remission, but 76 (12.4 percent) subsequently relapsed by the age of 26. Sensitization to house dust mites predicted the persistence of wheezing (odds ratio, 2.41; P=0.001) and relapse (odds ratio, 2.18; P=0.01), as did airway hyperresponsiveness (odds ratio for persistence, 3.00; P<0.001; odds ratio for relapse, 3.03; P<0.001). Female sex predicted the persistence of wheezing (odds ratio, 1.71; P=0.03), as did smoking at the age of 21 years (odds ratio, 1.84; P=0.01). The earlier the age at onset, the greater the risk of relapse (odds ratio, 0.89 per year of increase in the age at onset; P<0.001). Pulmonary function was consistently lower in those with persistent wheezing than in those without persistent wheezing. CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected birth cohort, more than one in four children had wheezing that persisted from childhood to adulthood or that relapsed after remission. The factors predicting persistence or relapse were sensitization to house dust mites, airway hyperresponsiveness, female sex, smoking, and early age at onset. These findings, together with persistently low lung function, suggest that outcomes in adult asthma may be determined primarily in early childhood.
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“Among many factors, house dust mite (HDM) is the most prevalent cause of allergic sensitization [4, 6], and a risk factor for persistent asthma in human subjects [7, 8].”
In the citing paper
“The majority of studies have shown that persistent wheeze is related to reduced lung function development throughout adolescence (31, 45, 152, 153), while some suggest the effects of persistent wheeze and relapsed wheeze on lung function are established from mid-childhood, without further decline in tracking of FEV1 over time (154, 155).”
From Epidemiology of Asthma in Children and Adults (2019) · cites this paper as [154]
In the citing paper
“While a number of studies have reported that childhood asthma itself has no impact on adult lung function decline (154, 157, 158, 160), a study that collected childhood asthma status retrospectively has reported that it is associated with greater lung function decline, which may be related to recall bias (161).”
From Epidemiology of Asthma in Children and Adults (2019) · cites this paper as [154]
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BackgroundSevere episodic viral wheeze in preschool children: High risk of asthma at age 5–10 years
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“Importantly, a large percentage of adult asthmatics can trace the origins of their asthma to their childhood years, at a time when allergen was first encountered (5).”
BackgroundAbnormal lung function at preschool age asthma in adolescence?
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“Its prevalence, highest during childhood (Sears et al., 2003), has been increasing over the past six decades, with the estimated overall worldwide prevalence of current asthma being 11.”
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BackgroundA Decreased Mean Platelet Volume Is Associated with Stable and Exacerbated Asthma
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“We selected HDM to induce airway disease because it is an important environmental aeroallergen that has been identified as a risk factor for persistent asthma in human subjects [8,9].”
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Grant, T. L., Phipatanakul, W., Perzanowski, M. S., Balcer-Whaley, S. L., Peng, R. D., Curtin-Brosnan, J., Newman, M. G., Cunningham, A., Divjan, A., Bollinger, M. E., et al. (2019) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2019.08.043 · Cited by 34
Persistent Asthma from Childhood to Adulthood Presents a Distinct Phenotype of Adult Asthma
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“The inclusion criteria were (1) asthma diagnosed using the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) guidelines; (2) fulfillment of the definition of “relapsed,” “persistent,” or “adult-onset” described below in the Study design section; (3) visiting our hospital regularly and regular use of controller medication for asthma…”
MethodImpaired Respiratory Health and Life Course Transitions From Health to Chronic Lung Disease
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“The effect has been most evident in subjects with subsequent symptoms of asthma.(3,4) In a prospective study, we have previously reported that children with early wheezing disorder clearly stand apart in terms of asthma prevalence in early adulthood compared with age-matched controls.”
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The therapy of pre‐school wheeze: Appropriate and fair?
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BackgroundAsthma prevention: Breast is best?
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“found that female gender was a predictor of persistence of wheezing at age 21.(12) However, when it comes to the diagnosis of asthma, the distinction between genders appears less clear.”
BackgroundClassroom aeroallergen exposure in Arkansas head start centers
Perry, T. T., Vargas, P. A., Bufford, J., Feild, C., Flick, M., Simpson, P. M., Hamilton, R. G., & Jones, S. M. (2008) · Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology · doi:10.1016/s1081-1206(10)60599-6 · Cited by 33
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Smoke exposure, airway symptoms and exhaled nitric oxide in infants: the Generation R study
Gabriele, C., Asgarali, R., Jaddoe, V. W. V., Albert Hofman, D., Moll, H. A., & de Jongste, J. C. (2008) · European Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1183/09031936.00132607 · Cited by 32
Advances in pediatric and adult asthma
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Porsbjerg, C. M., Rupani, H., Brannan, J. D., Ueki, S., Nawijn, M. C., Erjefalt, J. S., Chanez, P., Anderson, G. P., & Pavord, I. D. (2025) · The Lancet Respiratory Medicine · doi:10.1016/s2213-2600(25)00299-1 · Cited by 37
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“Two important, but not obligate, childhood characteristics of asthma are non-specific bronchial hyper-responsiveness (BHR) (2, 5) and increased fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FENO) (6–8).”
BackgroundAsthma incidence, remission, relapse and persistence: a population-based study in southern Taiwan
Wu, T., Wu, C., Lee, Y. L., Hsiue, T., & Guo, Y. L. (2014) · Respiratory Research · doi:10.1186/s12931-014-0135-9 · Cited by 31
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“These findings are similar to those of the Childhood Asthma Management Research Program [49, 50] and the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study [51, 52] which demonstrated increased and persistent airflow limitation in children with persistent versus remitting asthma that was associated with greater ae…”
ResultRelationships between Specific Airway Resistance and Forced Expiratory Flows in Asthmatic Children
Mahut, B., Trinquart, L., Bokov, P., Bourgeois, M. L., Waernessyckle, S., Peiffer, C., & Delclaux, C. (2009) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005270 · Cited by 31
“Previous prospective studies in which asthmatic patients were followed up from school-age to adulthood showed that the lung function phenotype was acquired early in childhood [9,10].”
ResultHedman, L., Bjerg, A., Lundbäck, B., & Rönmark, E. (2012) · Clinical and Translational Allergy · doi:10.1186/2045-7022-2-1 · Cited by 33
“The number of population-based studies about the incidence of asthma and wheeze during adolescence are still limited [1-6].”
BackgroundThe natural history of asthma from childhood to adulthood
Koh, M. S., & Irving, L. (2007) · International Journal of Clinical Practice · doi:10.1111/j.1742-1241.2007.01426.x · Cited by 31
The New Zealand Asthma and Allergy Cohort Study (NZA2CS): Assembly, Demographics and Investigations
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“This difference was seen to continue well into adult life (21).”
BackgroundChoi, J., Choi, B. K., Kim, J. S., Lee, J.-W., Park, H. A., Ryu, H. W., Lee, S. U., Hwang, K. W., Yun, W.-K., Kim, H.-C., et al. (2016) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0167098 · Cited by 30
Epidemiology of asthma across the ages
Miligkos, M., Oh, J., Kwon, R., Konstantinou, G. Ν., Kim, S., Yon, D. K., & Papadopoulos, N. G. (2024) · Annals of Allergy Asthma & Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.anai.2024.12.004 · Cited by 30
Sex-Specific Development of Asthma Differs between Farm and Nonfarm Children: A Cohort Study
Genuneit, J. (2014) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.201403-0428le · Cited by 30
Short burst oxygen therapy for relief of breathlessness in COPD
Roberts, C. M. (2004) · Thorax · doi:10.1136/thx.2003.017301 · Cited by 30
Does epigenetics play a role in human asthma?
Vercelli, D. (2016) · Allergology International · doi:10.1016/j.alit.2015.12.001 · Cited by 30
Abo-Zaid, G., Sharpe, R. A., Fleming, L. E., Depledge, M. H., & Osborne, N. J. (2018) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph15071415 · Cited by 31
Timing of household food insecurity exposures and asthma in a cohort of US school-aged children
Mangini, L. D., Hayward, M. D., Zhu, Y., Dong, Y., & Forman, M. R. (2018) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2018-021683 · Cited by 30
Longitudinal Asthma Phenotypes from Childhood to Middle-Age: A Population-based Cohort Study
Tan, D. J., Lodge, C., Walters, E. H., Lowe, A. J., Bui, D., Bowatte, G., Pham, J., Erbas, B., Hui, J., Hamilton, G. S., et al. (2023) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.202208-1569oc · Cited by 31
Yogev-Baggio, T., Bibi, H., Dubnov, J., Or‐Chen, K., Carel, R. S., & Portnov, B. A. (2009) · Health & Place · doi:10.1016/j.healthplace.2009.11.013 · Cited by 30
Natural history and risk factors of obstructive changes over a 10-year period in severe asthma
Matsunaga, K., Akamatsu, K., Miyatake, A., & Ichinose, M. (2012) · Respiratory Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2012.11.014 · Cited by 30
Obaseki, D., Potts, J., Joos, G., Bælum, J., Haahtela, T., Ahlström, M., Matricardi, P. M., Krämer, U., Gjomarkaj, M., Fokkens, W. J., et al. (2014) · Allergy · doi:10.1111/all.12447 · Cited by 30
“Among children it has been shown that growth of lung function is not affected by the presence of asthma, even though lung function is lower in children with asthma (4, 5).”
BackgroundLongitudinal assessment of airway responsiveness from 1 month to 18 years in the PIAF birth cohort
Cox, D., Mullane, D., Zhang, G., Turner, S., Hayden, C. M., Goldblatt, J., Landau, L. I., & Souëf, P. N. L. (2015) · European Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1183/13993003.00397-2015 · Cited by 30
Lung function trajectories and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Krishnan, J. K., & Martínez, F. J. (2017) · Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine · doi:10.1097/mcp.0000000000000456 · Cited by 32
Ly, N. P., Soto-Quirós, M. E., Ávila, L., Hunninghake, G. M., Raby, B. A., Laskey, D. H., Sylvia, J. S., & Celedon, J. C. (2007) · CHEST Journal · doi:10.1378/chest.07-2130 · Cited by 30
Schäfer, T., Stieger, B., Polzius, R., & Krauspe, A. (2009) · Pediatric Allergy and Immunology · doi:10.1111/j.1399-3038.2008.00806.x · Cited by 30
Yang, B., Liu, R., Yang, T., Jiang, X., Zhang, L., Wang, L., Wang, Q., Luo, Z., Liu, E., & Fu, Z. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0123010 · Cited by 29
Genome-wide interaction study of dust mite allergen on lung function in children with asthma
Forno, E., Sordillo, J. E., Brehm, J. M., Chen, W., Benos, T., Yan, Q., Ávila, L., Soto-Quirós, M., Cloutier, M. M., Colón‐Semidey, A., et al. (2017) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2016.12.967 · Cited by 29
“Moreover, poor lung function in children with asthma predicts exacerbations over subsequent followup,(47) and is associated with worse outcomes in adulthood.(48) Several studies (including genome-wide association study and candidate-gene studies) have been performed to identify genetic variants associated with lung fu…”
BackgroundSupernormal lung function and risk of COPD: A contemporary population-based cohort study
Çolak, Y., Nordestgaard, B. G., Lange, P., Vestbo, J., & Afzal, S. (2021) · EClinicalMedicine · doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100974 · Cited by 30
Revisiting asthma pharmacotherapy: where do we stand and where do we want to go?
Cazzola, M., Page, C. P., Matera, M. G., Rogliani, P., & Hanania, N. A. (2023) · European Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1183/13993003.00700-2023 · Cited by 30
Quality of life in adolescents with asthma, during the transition period from child to adult
Sundell, K., Bergström, S., Hedlin, G., Ygge, B., & Tunsäter, A. (2010) · The Clinical Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1111/j.1752-699x.2010.00218.x · Cited by 29
“Furthermore, Strachan as well as Sears has demonstrated that in males the severity of asthma decreases significantly during the progression from childhood to adulthood, whereas females exhibit a tendency to develop more serious asthma during adult life (4, 5).”
BackgroundRelationship between Bronchial Hyperresponsiveness and Impaired Lung Function after Infantile Asthma
Delacourt, C., Benoist, M. R., Bourgeois, M. L., Waernessyckle, S., Rufin, P., Brouard, J.-J., Jacques de, B. L. I. C., & Scheinmann, P. (2007) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001180 · Cited by 29
“Finally, prospective studies in which patients were followed up from school-age to adulthood showed that the lung function phenotype was acquired early in childhood and remained stable thereafter, regardless of the severity of asthma symptoms [16,17].”
BackgroundRisk factors for bronchial hyperresponsiveness in teenagers differ with sex and atopic status
Collins, R. A., Parsons, F., Deverell, M., Hollams, E. M., Holt, P. G., & Sly, P. D. (2011) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2011.03.016 · Cited by 29
Handoyo, S., & Rosenwasser, L. J. (2009) · Current Allergy and Asthma Reports · doi:10.1007/s11882-009-0065-7 · Cited by 29
Biomarkers to predict asthma in wheezing preschool children
Bannier, M. A. G. E., van de Kant, K. D. G., Jöbsis, Q., & Dompeling, E. (2014) · Clinical & Experimental Allergy · doi:10.1111/cea.12460 · Cited by 30
Asthma in preschool children: the next challenge
Saglani, S., & Bush, A. (2009) · Current Opinion in Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1097/aci.0b013e3283292230 · Cited by 28
Tomasallo, C. D., Hanrahan, L. P., Tandias, A., Chang, T. S., Cowan, K., & Guilbert, T. W. (2013) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.2013.301396 · Cited by 28
A systematic review of early life factors which adversely affect subsequent lung function
Kouzouna, A., Gilchrist, F. J., Ball, V., Kyriacou, T., Henderson, A. J., Pandyan, A. D., & Lenney, W. (2016) · Paediatric Respiratory Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.prrv.2016.03.003 · Cited by 31
Bäckman, H., Hedman, L., Stridsman, C., Jansson, S., Lindberg, A., Lundbäck, B., & Rönmark, E. (2017) · European Clinical Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1080/20018525.2017.1334508 · Cited by 28
Kotecha, S. J., Watkins, W. J., Lowe, J., Granell, R., Henderson, A. J., & Kotecha, S. (2018) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwy268 · Cited by 28
“Because some wheezing phenotypes in largely term-born children are associated with lung function deficits (especially persistent wheeze) (12, 14, 16, 17), it will be important to investigate whether similar lung deficits are associated with particular wheezing phenotypes among preterm-born children.”
BackgroundShea, E., Perera, F. P., & Mills, D. (2019) · Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2019.109019 · Cited by 28
“Importantly for these scenarios, studies across populations demonstrate a persistence rate of around 15% for asthma that continues from childhood into adulthood [20], [21].”
BackgroundAdolescents with asthma: Consequences of transition from paediatric to adult healthcare
Bergström, S., Sundell, K., & Hedlin, G. (2009) · Respiratory Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2009.09.021 · Cited by 28
Breastfeeding history and childhood allergic status in a prospective birth cohort
Wegienka, G., Ownby, D. R., Havstad, S. L., Williams, L. K., & Johnson, C. C. (2006) · Annals of Allergy Asthma & Immunology · doi:10.1016/s1081-1206(10)61374-9 · Cited by 28
Doherty, G. M., Kamath, S. V., de Courcey, F., Christie, S. N., Chisakuta, A. M., Lyons, J. D., Heaney, L. G., Ennis, M., & Shields, M. D. (2005) · Clinical & Experimental Allergy · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2222.2005.02326.x · Cited by 28
Assessing direct and indirect airway hyperresponsiveness in children using impulse oscillometry
Kalliola, S., Malmberg, L. P., Kajosaari, M., Mattila, P. S., Pelkonen, A. S., & Mäkelä, M. J. (2014) · Annals of Allergy Asthma & Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.anai.2014.04.026 · Cited by 27
Metadata
- Authors
- Sears, M. R., Greene, J. M., Willan, A. R., Wiecek, E. M., Taylor, D. R., Flannery, E. M., Cowan, J. O., Herbison, G. P., Silva, P. A., & Poulton, R.
- Affiliations
- St. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton (CA)
- McMaster University (CA)
- University of Otago (NZ)
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2003-10-09
- Volume
- 349
- Issue
- 15
- Pages
- 1414-1422
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- OpenAlex
- W2104537618
- Cited by
- 1,460
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 56 · 2020: 51 · 2019: 62 · 2018: 54 · 2017: 38 · 2016: 53 · 2015: 72 · 2014: 86 · 2013: 59 · 2012: 70
- FWCI
- 40.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Asthma and respiratory diseases
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Occupational exposure and asthma
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Immunology and Allergy › Allergic Rhinitis and Sensitization
- Keywords
- childhood asthma, adult asthma, asthma persistence, asthma relapse, wheezing, house dust mite sensitization, airway hyperresponsiveness, sex differences, smoking, age at asthma onset, lung function, Dunedin birth cohort
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Asthma, Child, Child, Preschool, Environmental Exposure, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, New Zealand, Surveys and Questionnaires, Recurrence, Respiratory Function Tests, Respiratory Sounds, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Smoking, Cohort Studies, Bronchial Hyperreactivity, Age of Onset, Disease Progression, Pyroglyphidae
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