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A Longitudinal, Population-Based, Cohort Study of Childhood Asthma Followed to Adulthood
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: The outcome of childhood asthma in adults has been described in high-risk cohorts, but few population-based studies have reported the risk factors for persistence and relapse. METHODS: We assessed children born from April 1972 through March 1973 in Dunedin, New Zealand, repeatedly from 9 to 26 years of age with questionnaires, pulmonary-function tests, bronchial-challenge testing, and allergy testing. RESULTS: By the age of 26 years, 51.4 percent of 613 study members with complete respiratory data had reported wheezing at more than one assessment. Eighty-nine study members (14.5 percent) had wheezing that persisted from childhood to 26 years of age, whereas 168 (27.4 percent) had remission, but 76 (12.4 percent) subsequently relapsed by the age of 26. Sensitization to house dust mites predicted the persistence of wheezing (odds ratio, 2.41; P=0.001) and relapse (odds ratio, 2.18; P=0.01), as did airway hyperresponsiveness (odds ratio for persistence, 3.00; P<0.001; odds ratio for relapse, 3.03; P<0.001). Female sex predicted the persistence of wheezing (odds ratio, 1.71; P=0.03), as did smoking at the age of 21 years (odds ratio, 1.84; P=0.01). The earlier the age at onset, the greater the risk of relapse (odds ratio, 0.89 per year of increase in the age at onset; P<0.001). Pulmonary function was consistently lower in those with persistent wheezing than in those without persistent wheezing. CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected birth cohort, more than one in four children had wheezing that persisted from childhood to adulthood or that relapsed after remission. The factors predicting persistence or relapse were sensitization to house dust mites, airway hyperresponsiveness, female sex, smoking, and early age at onset. These findings, together with persistently low lung function, suggest that outcomes in adult asthma may be determined primarily in early childhood.
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In the citing paper
“Among many factors, house dust mite (HDM) is the most prevalent cause of allergic sensitization [4, 6], and a risk factor for persistent asthma in human subjects [7, 8].”
In the citing paper
“The majority of studies have shown that persistent wheeze is related to reduced lung function development throughout adolescence (31, 45, 152, 153), while some suggest the effects of persistent wheeze and relapsed wheeze on lung function are established from mid-childhood, without further decline in tracking of FEV1 over time (154, 155).”
From Epidemiology of Asthma in Children and Adults (2019) · cites this paper as [154]
In the citing paper
“While a number of studies have reported that childhood asthma itself has no impact on adult lung function decline (154, 157, 158, 160), a study that collected childhood asthma status retrospectively has reported that it is associated with greater lung function decline, which may be related to recall bias (161).”
From Epidemiology of Asthma in Children and Adults (2019) · cites this paper as [154]
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Shearer, W. T., Jacobson, D. L., Yu, W., Siberry, G. K., Purswani, M. U., Siminski, S. M., Butler, L., Leister, E. C., Scott, G. B., Dyke, R. B. V., et al. (2017) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2017.01.031 · Cited by 25
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Asthma Phenotypes and Biomarkers
Grunwell, J. R., & Fitzpatrick, A. M. (2025) · Respiratory Care · doi:10.1089/respcare.12352 · Cited by 28
“68 Results from these prospective longitudinal and birth cohort studies indicate that little decline in FEV 1 /FVC ratio occurs from school age through mid-adult life.”
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Sensitization to Common Aeroallergens in Asthmatic Children in the Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia
AlKhater, S. A. (2017) · Saudi Journal of Medicine and Medical Sciences · doi:10.4103/1658-631x.204876 · Cited by 22
“The pattern and extent of allergen sensitization to various indoor and outdoor allergens are believed to contribute to the severity and progression of asthma symptoms.[6-8] A significant reduction in the risk of future asthma development was observed in high-risk children when specific environmental avoidance measures…”
BackgroundLangevin, S., Caspi, A., Barnes, J. C., Brennan, G. M., Poulton, R., Purdy, S. C., Ramrakha, S., Tanksley, P. T., Thorne, P. R., Wilson, G., et al. (2022) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph192114402 · Cited by 29
Martínez‐Moragón, E., Chiner, E., Mogrovejo, S., Palop-Cervera, M., Lluch, I., Boira, I., & Vera, A. F. S. (2024) · Journal of Asthma · doi:10.1080/02770903.2024.2332351 · Cited by 24
Evolution of cystic fibrosis lung function in the early years
Bush, A., & Sly, P. D. (2015) · Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine · doi:10.1097/mcp.0000000000000209 · Cited by 22
Characterization of leukotrienes in a pilot study of older asthma subjects
Nyenhuis, S. M., Schwantes, E. A., & Mathur, S. K. (2010) · Immunity & Ageing · doi:10.1186/1742-4933-7-8 · Cited by 22
“Both FEV1 and FVC were significantly lower in the older group compared to the young subjects, which is consistent with lung volume decreases in the aging population [17].”
ResultPhysiologic similarities and differences between asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Gelb, A. F., Zamel, N., & Krishnan, A. (2007) · Current Opinion in Pulmonary Medicine · doi:10.1097/mcp.0b013e3282f197df · Cited by 22
Hedman, L., Bjerg, A., Perzanowski, M. S., & Rönmark, E. (2009) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2009.08.017 · Cited by 22
Pugmire, J., Vasquez, M. M., Zhou, M., Sherrill, D. L., Halonen, M. J., Martínez, F. D., & Guerra, S. (2014) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2014.07.030 · Cited by 22
Thumb-Sucking, Nail-Biting, and Atopic Sensitization, Asthma, and Hay Fever
Lynch, S. J., Sears, M. R., & Hancox, R. J. (2016) · PEDIATRICS · doi:10.1542/peds.2016-0443 · Cited by 22
“001 Asthma at age 13 35/355 (10) 60/380 (16) .”
Guo, M., Wei, L., Yan, H., Duan, Z., Niu, Z., & Xiao, C. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Health Research · doi:10.1080/09603123.2021.1929873 · Cited by 22
“Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that allergic diseases may affect children’s physical and mental health, even their adulthood life (Sears et al. 2003; Chen et al. 2013; Ramirez et al. 2019).”
BackgroundBoechat, J. L., Rios, J. L. M., Sant’Anna, C. C., & França, A. T. (2005) · Jornal Brasileiro de Pneumologia · doi:10.1590/s1806-37132005000200005 · Cited by 22
Lung function development in the first 2 yr of life is independent of allergic diseases by 2 yr
Håland, G., Carlsen, K., Devulapalli, C. S., Pettersen, M., Mowinckel, P., & Carlsen, K. C. L. (2007) · Pediatric Allergy and Immunology · doi:10.1111/j.1399-3038.2007.00555.x · Cited by 22
“Although tracking has been suggested from school age into adolescents (5) and adult life (6), healthy Australian infants with airways flow limitation at 5 wk of age had significantly reduced FEV1 and FEF25)75 at 6 yr, but not at 11 yr of age (28).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialNava, F. V., González, A. H. S., Perales, G. M. M., Ochoa, D., Gómez, M. D. C. B., Rodríguez, E. M. V., Vázquez-Rodríguez, C. F., & Guzmán, F. J. B. (2006) · Archivos de Bronconeumología · doi:10.1157/13095970 · Cited by 22
“876 (95,4) 0,62 (0,47-0,78) < 0,01 Mujeres 154 (7,6) 1.”
InfluentialAirway Function, Inflammation and Regulatory T Cell Function in Subjects in Asthma Remission
Boulet, L., Turcotte, H., Plante, S., & Chakir, J. (2012) · Canadian Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1155/2012/347989 · Cited by 22
“Regarding the factors associated with a recurrence of asthma symptoms, development of chronic airflow limitation in childhood and persistent airway inflammation have been proposed (6-8,33,34).”
BackgroundLauhkonen, E., Riikonen, R., Törmänen, S., Koponen, P. S., Nuolivirta, K., Helminen, M., Toikka, J., & Korppi, M. O. (2018) · Pediatric Pulmonology · doi:10.1002/ppul.23977 · Cited by 23
iPAC: An initiative to fight the burden of allergies in children
Eigenmann, P., Muraro, M. A., Sampson, H. A., & Wahn, U. (2008) · Pediatric Allergy and Immunology · doi:10.1111/j.1399-3038.2008.00762.x · Cited by 22
Chapman, D. G., King, G. G., Berend, N., Diba, C., & Salome, C. M. (2010) · Respiratory Physiology & Neurobiology · doi:10.1016/j.resp.2010.07.011 · Cited by 21
Republished: Lung consequences in adults born prematurely
Bolton, C. E., Bush, A., Hurst, J. R., Kotecha, S., & McGarvey, L. P. (2015) · Postgraduate Medical Journal · doi:10.1136/postgradmedj-2014-206590rep · Cited by 23
Association between asthma control trajectories in preschoolers and disease remission
Longo, C., Blais, L., Brownell, M. D., Quail, J. M., Sadatsafavi, M., Forget, A., Turcot, M., Nie, Y., Li, W., Tavakoli, H., et al. (2020) · European Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1183/13993003.01897-2020 · Cited by 21
Epigenome-wide association study of lung function in Latino children and youth with asthma
Luis, E. H., Li, A., Mak, A. C. Y., Pérez-García, J., Elhawary, J. R., Oh, S. S., Hu, D., Eng, C. S., Keys, K. L., Huntsman, S., et al. (2022) · Clinical Epigenetics · doi:10.1186/s13148-022-01227-5 · Cited by 21
Hazan, G., Eubanks, A., Gierasch, C. M., Atkinson, J. J., Fox, C., Hernandez-Leyva, A. J., Rosen, A. L., Kau, A. L., Agapov, E. V., Alexander‐Brett, J. M., et al. (2022) · The Journal of Immunology · doi:10.4049/jimmunol.2101094 · Cited by 22
The relationship of early-life household air pollution with childhood asthma and lung function
Dai, X., Dharmage, S. C., & Lodge, C. (2022) · European Respiratory Review · doi:10.1183/16000617.0020-2022 · Cited by 25
“Although a large proportion of children with asthma/wheeze in early life go into remission, some asthma persists into adulthood [3].”
BackgroundBisgaard, H. F., Chawes, B., Stokholm, J., Mikkelsen, M., Schoos, A. M., & Bønnelykke, K. (2023) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2022.11.022 · Cited by 22
Smoking, asthma, chronic airflow obstruction and COPD
Sears, M. R. (2015) · European Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1183/09031936.00231414 · Cited by 22
Exhaled nitric oxide and the risk of wheezing in infancy: the Generation R Study
Gabriele, C., Jaddoe, V. W. V., van Mastrigt, E., Arends, L. R., Albert Hofman, D., Moll, H. A., & de Jongste, J. C. (2011) · European Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1183/09031936.00151010 · Cited by 21
“focused on more severe symptoms, such as awakening because of airway symptoms or GP consultations, in order to identify those children most likely to develop asthma [23, 24].”
BackgroundKhayath, N., Doyen, V., Gherasim, A., Radu, C., Choual, I., Beck, N., Jacob, A., Schoettel, F., Vecellio, L., Domis, N., et al. (2020) · Journal of Asthma · doi:10.1080/02770903.2018.1563902 · Cited by 21
“Because LAR is a good model of chronic asthma [6], several epidemiological and experimental studies [13,15] have suggested, over the last 10 years, that the mite allergy induced asthma more frequently than other aeroallergens, with the exception of Aspergillus.”
BackgroundDenlinger, L. C., Phillips, B. R., Sorkness, R. L., Bleecker, E. R., Castro, M., DeBoer, M. D., Fitzpatrick, A. M., Hastie, A. T., Gaffin, J. M., Moore, W. C., et al. (2020) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.202002-0454oc · Cited by 21
Cold air challenge and specific airway resistance in preschool children
Nielsen, K. G., & Bisgaard, H. F. (2005) · Paediatric Respiratory Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.prrv.2005.09.013 · Cited by 21
Metadata
- Authors
- Sears, M. R., Greene, J. M., Willan, A. R., Wiecek, E. M., Taylor, D. R., Flannery, E. M., Cowan, J. O., Herbison, G. P., Silva, P. A., & Poulton, R.
- Affiliations
- St. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton (CA)
- McMaster University (CA)
- University of Otago (NZ)
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2003-10-09
- Volume
- 349
- Issue
- 15
- Pages
- 1414-1422
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- OpenAlex
- W2104537618
- Cited by
- 1,460
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 56 · 2020: 51 · 2019: 62 · 2018: 54 · 2017: 38 · 2016: 53 · 2015: 72 · 2014: 86 · 2013: 59 · 2012: 70
- FWCI
- 40.25
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Asthma and respiratory diseases
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Occupational exposure and asthma
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Immunology and Allergy › Allergic Rhinitis and Sensitization
- Keywords
- childhood asthma, adult asthma, asthma persistence, asthma relapse, wheezing, house dust mite sensitization, airway hyperresponsiveness, sex differences, smoking, age at asthma onset, lung function, Dunedin birth cohort
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Asthma, Child, Child, Preschool, Environmental Exposure, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, New Zealand, Surveys and Questionnaires, Recurrence, Respiratory Function Tests, Respiratory Sounds, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Smoking, Cohort Studies, Bronchial Hyperreactivity, Age of Onset, Disease Progression, Pyroglyphidae
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