Cited by 1,460Asthma and respiratory diseasesOccupational exposure and asthmaAllergic Rhinitis and Sensitization

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A Longitudinal, Population-Based, Cohort Study of Childhood Asthma Followed to Adulthood

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Sears, Malcolm R., Greene, Justina M., Willan, Andrew R., Wiecek, Elizabeth M., Taylor, D. Robin, Flannery, Erin M., Cowan, Jan O., Herbison, G. Peter, Silva, Phil A., Poulton, Richie·2003·New England Journal of Medicine

DOI 10.1056/nejmoa022363

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: The outcome of childhood asthma in adults has been described in high-risk cohorts, but few population-based studies have reported the risk factors for persistence and relapse. METHODS: We assessed children born from April 1972 through March 1973 in Dunedin, New Zealand, repeatedly from 9 to 26 years of age with questionnaires, pulmonary-function tests, bronchial-challenge testing, and allergy testing. RESULTS: By the age of 26 years, 51.4 percent of 613 study members with complete respiratory data had reported wheezing at more than one assessment. Eighty-nine study members (14.5 percent) had wheezing that persisted from childhood to 26 years of age, whereas 168 (27.4 percent) had remission, but 76 (12.4 percent) subsequently relapsed by the age of 26. Sensitization to house dust mites predicted the persistence of wheezing (odds ratio, 2.41; P=0.001) and relapse (odds ratio, 2.18; P=0.01), as did airway hyperresponsiveness (odds ratio for persistence, 3.00; P<0.001; odds ratio for relapse, 3.03; P<0.001). Female sex predicted the persistence of wheezing (odds ratio, 1.71; P=0.03), as did smoking at the age of 21 years (odds ratio, 1.84; P=0.01). The earlier the age at onset, the greater the risk of relapse (odds ratio, 0.89 per year of increase in the age at onset; P<0.001). Pulmonary function was consistently lower in those with persistent wheezing than in those without persistent wheezing. CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected birth cohort, more than one in four children had wheezing that persisted from childhood to adulthood or that relapsed after remission. The factors predicting persistence or relapse were sensitization to house dust mites, airway hyperresponsiveness, female sex, smoking, and early age at onset. These findings, together with persistently low lung function, suggest that outcomes in adult asthma may be determined primarily in early childhood.

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Changes in the prevalence of asthma and respiratory symptoms in western Sweden between 2008 and 2016
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How Exposures to Biologics Influence the Induction and Incidence of Asthma
Zeldin, D., Eggleston, P., Chapman, M., Piedimonte, G., Renz, H., & Peden, D. (2006) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.8379 · Cited by 69
6. Asthma: Factors underlying inception, exacerbation, and disease progression
Lemanske, R. F., & Busse, W. W. (2006) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2005.07.006 · Cited by 65
“A number of groups have reported that the greatest absolute loss of lung function appears to occur very early in childhood.(1,4,5) Some have reported that the peak in lung function that is achieved at about 20 years of age in patients with asthma might be decreased(6) and that the rate of further loss during adulthood…”
Background
Systemic inflammation and lung function: A longitudinal analysis
Hancox, R. J., Gray, A. R., Sears, M. R., & Poulton, R. (2015) · Respiratory Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2015.12.007 · Cited by 66
Adult asthma severity in individuals with a history of childhood asthma
Limb, S. L., Brown, K. C., Wood, R. A., Wise, R. A., Eggleston, P. A., Tonascia, J., Hamilton, R. G., & Adkinson, N. F. (2005) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2004.09.032 · Cited by 64
“Age, y Age at onset (range) 4 (1-8) 2 (1-6) 3 (0-8) .”
The EPICure Study: Association between Hemodynamics and Lung Function at 11 Years after Extremely Preterm Birth
Bolton, C. E., Stocks, J., Hennessy, E., Cockcroft, J., Fawke, J., Lum, S., McEniery, C. M., Wilkinson, I. B., & Marlow, N. (2012) · The Journal of Pediatrics · doi:10.1016/j.jpeds.2012.03.052 · Cited by 63
Phenotypes and endotypes of uncontrolled severe asthma: new treatments.
Campo, P., Rodríguez, F., Sánchez-García, S., Barranco, P., Quirce, S., Pérez‐Francés, C., Torrijos, E. G., Cárdenas, R., Olaguibel, J. M., & Delgado, J. (2013) · PubMed · Cited by 63
Thiol redox disturbances in children with severe asthma are associated with posttranslational modification of the transcription factor nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)–like 2
Fitzpatrick, A. M., Stephenson, S. T., Hadley, G. R., Burwell, L., Penugonda, M., Simon, D. M., Hansen, J. M., Jones, D. P., & Brown, L. A. S. (2011) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2011.03.031 · Cited by 62
“Male subjects with persistent wheezing also have lower lung function compared with female subjects.(44) Although genetic differences underlying Nrf2 dysfunction in severe asthma were beyond the scope of our study, this is a potentially important finding that should be explored.”
Is Chronic Asthma Associated with Shorter Leukocyte Telomere Length at Midlife?
Belsky, D. W., Shalev, I., Sears, M. R., Hancox, R. J., Harrington, H. L., Houts, R., Moffitt, T. E., Sugden, K., Williams, B. S., Poulton, R., et al. (2014) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.201402-0370oc · Cited by 63
The early-life origins of asthma
Saglani, S., & Bush, A. (2007) · Current Opinion in Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1097/aci.0b013e32801297e6 · Cited by 61
Airway Remodeling in Asthma: Mechanisms, Diagnosis, Treatment, and Future Directions
Tiotiu, A. I., Steiropoulos, P., Novakova, S. M., Nedeva, D., Novakova, P. I., Chong‐Neto, H. J., Fogelbach, G. G., & Kowal, K. (2024) · Archivos de Bronconeumología · doi:10.1016/j.arbres.2024.09.007 · Cited by 61
Fetal origins of asthma
Henderson, A. J., & Warner, J. O. (2012) · Seminars in Fetal and Neonatal Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.siny.2012.01.006 · Cited by 63
TLR9-Based Immunotherapy for Allergic Disease
Hayashi, T., & Raz, E. (2006) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2005.12.028 · Cited by 61
Childhood exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and chronic respiratory symptoms in non-smoking adults: The Singapore Chinese Health Study
David, G. L. (2005) · Thorax · doi:10.1136/thx.2005.042960 · Cited by 61
Impairment of the swallowing reflex in exacerbations of COPD
Kobayashi, S., Kubo, H., & Yanai, M. (2007) · Thorax · doi:10.1136/thx.2007.084715 · Cited by 61
Lung function trajectories from birth through puberty reflect asthma phenotypes with allergic comorbidity
Lødrup Carlsen, K. C., Mowinckel, P., Hovland, V., Håland, G., Riiser, A., & Carlsen, K.-H. (2014) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2014.05.020 · Cited by 59
Dynamic evolution of serum immunoglobulin E to airborne allergens throughout childhood: results from the Multi‐Centre Allergy Study birth cohort
Matricardi, P. M., Bockelbrink, A., Keil, T. O. P., Grüber, C., Niggemann, B., Hamelmann, E. H., Wahn, U., & Lau, S. (2009) · Clinical & Experimental Allergy · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2222.2009.03348.x · Cited by 60
Irreversible lung function deficits in young adults with a history of childhood asthma
Limb, S. L., Brown, K. C., Wood, R. A., Wise, R. A., Eggleston, P. A., Tonascia, J. M., & Adkinson, N. F. (2005) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2005.09.024 · Cited by 60
“01 Duration of asthma symptoms, y (range) At childhood enrollment 4 (0-9) 6 (1-11) .”
Background
Childhood Asthma Inception and Progression
Martinez, F. D. (2019) · Immunology and Allergy Clinics of North America · doi:10.1016/j.iac.2018.12.001 · Cited by 59
Lung function, airway remodelling and inflammation in symptomatic infants: outcome at 3 years
Malmström, K., Pelkonen, A. S., Malmberg, L. P., Sarna, S. J., Lindahl, H. G., Kajosaari, M., Turpeinen, M., Saglani, S., Bush, A., Haahtela, T., et al. (2011) · Thorax · doi:10.1136/thx.2010.139246 · Cited by 59
Future Research Directions in Asthma
Busse, W., Banks-Schlegel, S. P., Noel, P. J., Ortega, H. G., TAGGART, V. S., & Elias, J. A. (2004) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.200311-1539ws · Cited by 59
Supplementation with vitamin A early in life and subsequent risk of asthma
Checkley, W., West, K. P., Wise, R. A., Wu, L., LeClerq, S. C., Khatry, S. K., Katz, J., Christian, P. S., Tielsch, J. M., & Sommer, A. H. (2011) · European Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1183/09031936.00006911 · Cited by 58
The relationship between body fat and respiratory function in young adults
Sutherland, T., McLachlan, C. R., Sears, M. R., Poulton, R., & Hancox, R. J. (2016) · European Respiratory Journal · doi:10.1183/13993003.02216-2015 · Cited by 58
Long-term safety, efficacy, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of omalizumab in children with severe uncontrolled asthma
Odajima, H., Ebisawa, M., Nagakura, T., Fujisawa, T., Akasawa, A., Ito, K., Doi, S., Yamaguchi, K., Katsunuma, T., Kurihara, K., et al. (2016) · Allergology International · doi:10.1016/j.alit.2016.06.004 · Cited by 58
No further increase of incidence of asthma: Incidence, remission and relapse of adult asthma in Sweden
Ekerljung, L., Rönmark, E., Larsson, K., Sundblad, B., Bjerg, A., Ahlstedt, S., Dahlén, S.-E., & Lundbäck, B. (2008) · Respiratory Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.rmed.2008.07.011 · Cited by 58
Food Allergy Testing in Eosinophilic Esophagitis: What the Gastroenterologist Needs to Know
Aceves, S. S. (2013) · Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology · doi:10.1016/j.cgh.2013.09.007 · Cited by 57
“For example, subjects with indoor allergen sensitization tend to have persistent or recurrent asthma.(59) It is likely that there is interplay between the various atopic diatheses in a single individual.”
Dysanapsis as a Determinant of Lung Function in Development and Disease
McGinn, E. A., Mandell, E. W., Smith, B. J., Duke, J. W., Bush, A., & Abman, S. H. (2023) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.202306-1120pp · Cited by 62
Prevalence, risk factors and underdiagnosis of asthma and wheezing in adults 40 years and older: A population-based study
González-García, M., Caballero, A., Jaramillo, C., Maldonado, D., & Torres-Duque, C. A. (2015) · Journal of Asthma · doi:10.3109/02770903.2015.1010733 · Cited by 58
“In the same way, other studies have indicated that genetics play an important role in the development of asthma and allergy [44,45] and others have related the occurrence of respiratory symptoms in adult life to respiratory symptoms or infections in childhood [46,47].”
Result
Clinical assessment of asthma progression in children and adults
Spahn, J. D., & Covar, R. A. (2008) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2008.01.012 · Cited by 57
Risk of Current Asthma among Adult Smokers with Respiratory Syncytial Virus Illnesses in Early Life
Voraphani, N., Stern, D. A., Wright, A. L., Guerra, S., Morgan, W. J., & Martínez, F. D. (2014) · American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine · doi:10.1164/rccm.201311-2095oc · Cited by 57
“Finally, in a birth cohort in New Zealand prospectively followed up to age 26, smoking at age 21 was a predictor for the persistence or relapse of wheezing in adult life (35).”
Associations between respiratory symptoms, lung function and gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms in a population-based birth cohort
Hancox, R. J., Poulton, R., Taylor, D. R., Greene, J. M., McLachlan, C. R., Cowan, J. O., Flannery, E. M., Herbison, P., Sears, M. R., & Talley, N. J. (2006) · Respiratory Research · doi:10.1186/1465-9921-7-142 · Cited by 57
“This information was updated at subsequent assessments [17].”
Background
Relevance of specific IgE antibody titer to the prevalence, severity, and persistence of asthma among 19-year-olds in northern Sweden
Perzanowski, M. S., Rönmark, E., James, H. R., Hedman, L., Schuyler, A. J., Bjerg, A., Lundbäck, B., & Platts‐Mills, T. A. E. (2016) · Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.jaci.2016.05.017 · Cited by 62
Recent advances in understanding lung function development
Melén, E., & Guerra, S. (2017) · F1000Research · doi:10.12688/f1000research.11185.1 · Cited by 57
“As several longitudinal birth cohorts have now entered their adult years, their findings have been consistent in showing substantial tracking of asthma-related lung function deficits from childhood into adulthood but no evidence of accelerated decline thereafter 91,92 .”
Background
Asthma, bronchial hyperresponsiveness, allergy and lung function development until early adulthood: A systematic literature review
Koefoed, H. J. L., Zwitserloot, A. M., Vonk, J. M., & Koppelman, G. H. (2021) · Pediatric Allergy and Immunology · doi:10.1111/pai.13516 · Cited by 61
“Full-text papers assessed for eligibility (n = 114) Full-text papers excluded (n = 71) - Outside of age range (5) - Cross-sec onal design (11) - Outside scope (11) - Age range of lung func on assessments exceeded 2 years (37) - Leer to editor (4) - Not original research (2) - Publica on not in English (1) Backward ci…”
Background
Risk Factors for Near-Fatal Asthma
Gelb, A. F., Schein, A. J., Nussbaum, E., Shinar, C. M., Aelony, Y., Aharonian, H. S., & Zamel, N. (2004) · CHEST Journal · doi:10.1016/s0012-3692(15)31289-7 · Cited by 56

Authors: Sears, M. R., Greene, J. M., Willan, A. R., Wiecek, E. M., Taylor, D. R., Flannery, E. M., Cowan, J. O., Herbison, G. P., Silva, P. A., & Poulton, R.
Affiliations: St. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton (CA)
McMaster University (CA)
University of Otago (NZ)
ORCID: Sears, Malcolm R.
Willan, Andrew R.
Taylor, D. Robin
Poulton, Richie
Venue: New England Journal of Medicine
Publisher: Massachusetts Medical Society
Published: 2003-10-09
Volume: 349
Issue: 15
Pages: 1414-1422
ISSN: 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
1533-4406
DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa022363
OpenAlex: W2104537618
Cited by: 1,460
References: 28
Citations by year: 2026: 21 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 41 · 2021: 56 · 2020: 51 · 2019: 62 · 2018: 54 · 2017: 38 · 2016: 53 · 2015: 72 · 2014: 86 · 2013: 59 · 2012: 70
FWCI: 40.25
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Asthma and respiratory diseases
Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Occupational exposure and asthma
Health Sciences › Medicine › Immunology and Allergy › Allergic Rhinitis and Sensitization
Keywords: childhood asthma, adult asthma, asthma persistence, asthma relapse, wheezing, house dust mite sensitization, airway hyperresponsiveness, sex differences, smoking, age at asthma onset, lung function, Dunedin birth cohort
MeSH terms: Adolescent, Adult, Asthma, Child, Child, Preschool, Environmental Exposure, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, New Zealand, Surveys and Questionnaires, Recurrence, Respiratory Function Tests, Respiratory Sounds, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Smoking, Cohort Studies, Bronchial Hyperreactivity, Age of Onset, Disease Progression, Pyroglyphidae

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A Longitudinal, Population-Based, Cohort Study of Childhood Asthma Followed to Adulthood

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