The DOI matches its Crossref record; 16 of the 16 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza
Open accessAbstract
The spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into Asia, Europe, and Africa has resulted in enormous impacts on the poultry industry and presents an important threat to human health. The pathways by which the virus has and will spread between countries have been debated extensively, but have yet to be analyzed comprehensively and quantitatively. We integrated data on phylogenetic relationships of virus isolates, migratory bird movements, and trade in poultry and wild birds to determine the pathway for 52 individual introduction events into countries and predict future spread. We show that 9 of 21 of H5N1 introductions to countries in Asia were most likely through poultry, and 3 of 21 were most likely through migrating birds. In contrast, spread to most (20/23) countries in Europe was most likely through migratory birds. Spread in Africa was likely partly by poultry (2/8 introductions) and partly by migrating birds (3/8). Our analyses predict that H5N1 is more likely to be introduced into the Western Hemisphere through infected poultry and into the mainland United States by subsequent movement of migrating birds from neighboring countries, rather than from eastern Siberia. These results highlight the potential synergism between trade and wild animal movement in the emergence and pandemic spread of pathogens and demonstrate the value of predictive models for disease control.
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Cites
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Cited by
Cross-Species Virus Transmission and the Emergence of New Epidemic Diseases
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(2008) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmra0707279 · Cited by 860
Key conservation issues for migratory land- and waterbird species on the world's major flyways
Kirby, J. S., Stattersfield, A. J., Butchart, S. H. M., Evans, M. I., Grimmett, R. F. A., Jones, V. R., O'Sullivan, J., Tucker, G. M., & Newton, I. (2008) · Bird Conservation International · doi:10.1017/s0959270908000439 · Cited by 482
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Global trends in infectious diseases at the wildlife–livestock interface
Wiethoelter, A. K., Beltrán-Alcrudo, D., Kock, R., & Mor, S. M. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1422741112 · Cited by 286
Metadata
- Authors
- Kilpatrick, A. M., Chmura, A. A., Gibbons, D. W., Fleischer, R. C., Marra, P. P., & Daszak, P.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2006-12-19
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 51
- Pages
- 19368-19373
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W1999984759
- Cited by
- 578
- References
- 16
- FWCI
- 34.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Kilpatrick, A. M., Chmura, A. A., Gibbons, D. W., Fleischer, R. C., Marra, P. P., & Daszak, P. (2006). Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0609227103
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