The DOI matches its Crossref record; 7 of the 7 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa
Open accessAbstract
Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.
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Citations
Cites
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
FEARON, J. D., & LAITIN, D. D. (2003) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.1017/s0003055403000534 · Cited by 7,366
Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset
GLEDITSCH, N. P., WALLENSTEEN, P., ERIKSSON, M., SOLLENBERG, M., & STRAND, H. (2002) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343302039005007 · Cited by 3,846 · cited 2×
“Our dependent variable is countryand year-specific civil war incidence (13), where warit $ 1 if there was a conflict resulting in &1,000 deaths in country i in year t and 0 otherwise.”
BackgroundEconomic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach
Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., & Sergenti, E. (2004) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/421174 · Cited by 2,460 · cited 6×
“Consistent with previous studies (2, 7), and to capture the potentially delayed response of conflict to climate-induced economic shocks (due to, e.”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSelf-citationThe use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2076 · Cited by 1,862
Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths
Lacina, B., & Gleditsch, N. P. (2005) · European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie · doi:10.1007/s10680-005-6851-6 · Cited by 784
Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history
Zhang, D. D., Brecke, P., Lee, H. F., He, Y.-Q., & Zhang, J. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0703073104 · Cited by 540
A Meta-Analysis of Performance Response Under Thermal Stressors
Hancock, P. A., Ross, J. M., & Szalma, J. L. (2007) · Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society · doi:10.1518/001872007x230226 · Cited by 410
Cited by
What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature
Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2014) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.52.3.740 · Cited by 2,300
Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict
Hsiang, S. M., Burke, M., & Miguel, E. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1235367 · Cited by 1,827
Self-citationSocial and economic impacts of climate
Carleton, T. A., & Hsiang, S. M. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aad9837 · Cited by 1,348
The effect of environmental change on human migration
Black, R., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., & Thomas, D. (2011) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001 · Cited by 1,279
Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions
Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., Schaeffer, M., Perrette, M., & Reinhardt, J. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0910-2 · Cited by 1,037
Metadata
- Authors
- Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A., & Lobell, D. B.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2009-12-08
- Volume
- 106
- Issue
- 49
- Pages
- 20670-20674
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2105352486
- Cited by
- 985
- References
- 7
- FWCI
- 183.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A., & Lobell, D. B. (2009). Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907998106
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Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
