CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 168Malaria Research and ControlMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsTravel-related health issues

International population movements and regional Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies

Open access
Tatem, Andrew J., Smith, David L.·2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1002971107PMC PMC2901446
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Calls for the eradication of malaria require the development of global and regional strategies based on a strong and consistent evidence base. Evidence from the previous global malaria eradication program and more recent transborder control campaigns have shown the importance of accounting for human movement in introducing infections to areas targeted for elimination. Here, census-based migration data were analyzed with network analysis tools, Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission maps, and global population databases to map globally communities of countries linked by relatively high levels of infection movements. The likely principal sources and destinations of imported cases in each region were also mapped. Results indicate that certain groups of countries, such as those in West Africa and central Asia are much more strongly connected by relatively high levels of population and infection movement than others. In contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and Myanmar display significantly greater isolation in terms of likely infection movements in and out. The mapping here of both communities of countries linked by likely higher levels of infection movement, and “natural” migration boundaries that display reduced movement of people and infections between regions has practical utility. These maps can inform the design of malaria elimination strategies by identifying regional communities of countries afforded protection from recolonization by surrounding regions of reduced migration. For more isolated countries, a nationally focused control or elimination program is likely to stand a better chance of success than those receiving high levels of visitors and migrants from high-transmission regions.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.1002971107

Cites

5 of 5 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Recent evidence suggests that human social networks are just as important for transmission within cities as mosquito ecology, and that movement networks are a critical element of transmission within and among countries.

    “Recent evidence suggests that human social networks are just as important for transmission within cities as mosquito ecology,108 and that movement networks are a critical element of transmission within and among countries.109,110”

    From Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control (2014) · cites this paper as [109]

    The Results and Discussion identify networks of countries linked by population and infection movement, supporting the claim about movement among countries. The Discussion (page unavailable) cautions that the data have limitations at national-to-local scales, so this paper does not establish the claim about transmission within countries. The separate claim about social networks within cities is attached to citation 108, not this source. (LLM, conf=0.87)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 46

  1. [1]Barat LM. Four malaria success stories: How malaria burden was successfully reduced in Brazil, Eritrea, India, and Vietnam. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2006;74:12–16. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. [2]Barnes KI, et al. Effect of artemether-lumefantrine policy and improved vector control on malaria burden in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. PLoS Med. 2005;2:e330. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020330. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  3. [4]Ceesay SJ, et al. Changes in malaria indices between 1999 and 2007 in The Gambia: A retrospective analysis. Lancet. 2008;372:1545–1554. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61654-2. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  4. [6]Kleinschmidt I, et al. Marked increase in child survival after four years of intensive malaria control. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2009;80:882–888. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. [7]Nyarango PM, et al. A steep decline of malaria morbidity and mortality trends in Eritrea between 2000 and 2004: The effect of combination of control methods. Malar J. 2006;5:33. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-5-33. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  6. [8]Okiro EA, et al. The decline in paediatric malaria admissions on the coast of Kenya. Malar J. 2007;6:151. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-6-151. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  7. [9]O'Meara WP, et al. Effect of a fall in malaria transmission on morbidity and mortality in Kilifi, Kenya. Lancet. 2008;372:1555–1562. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61655-4. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  8. [10]Teklehaimanot HD, Teklehaimanot A, Kiszewski A, Rampao HS, Sachs JD. Malaria in São Tomé and Principe: On the brink of elimination after three years of effective antimalarial measures. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2009;80:133–140. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. [11]Roll Back Malaria. Global Malaria Action Plan. Geneva: Roll Back Malaria Partnership; 2008. [Google Scholar]
  10. [12]Feachem RGA, Phillips AA, Targett GA. Shrinking the Malaria Map: A Prospectus on Malaria Elimination. University of California, San Francisco: Global Health Group, Global Health Sciences; 2009. [Google Scholar]
  11. [13]World Health Organization. The World Malaria Report. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2008. [Google Scholar]
  12. [14]Brown AWA, Haworth J, Zahar AR. Malaria eradication and control from a global standpoint. J Med Entomol. 1976;13:1–25. doi: 10.1093/jmedent/13.1.1. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  13. [15]Prothero RM. Population movements and problems of malaria eradication in Africa. Bull World Health Organ. 1961;24:405–425. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  14. [16]Wootton JC, et al. Genetic diversity and chloroquine selective sweeps in Plasmodium falciparum. Nature. 2002;418:320–323. doi: 10.1038/nature00813. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  15. [17]Alves W. Malaria parasite rates in Southern Rhodesia: May–September 1956. Bull World Health Organ. 1958;19:69–74. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  16. [18]Alves W, Blair DM. Malaria control in Southern Rhodesia. J Trop Med Hyg. 1955;58:273–280. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  17. [19]Mabaso ML, Sharp B, Lengeler C. Historical review of malarial control in southern African with emphasis on the use of indoor residual house-spraying. Trop Med Int Health. 2004;9:846–856. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2004.01263.x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  18. [20]Snow RW, Guerra CA, Mutheu JJ, Hay SI. International funding for malaria control in relation to populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum transmission. PLoS Med. 2008;5:e142. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050142. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  19. [21]Sharp BL, et al. Seven years of regional malaria control collaboration—Mozambique, South Africa, and Swaziland. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2007;76:42–47. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  20. [22]Hay SI, et al. A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007. PLoS Med. 2009;6:e1000048. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000048. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  21. [23]Prothero RM. Migrants and Malaria. London: Longmans Green; 1965. [Google Scholar]
  22. [25]World Health Organization. Global Malaria Control and Elimination: Report of a Technical Review. Geneva: WHO; 2008. [Google Scholar]
  23. [26]Zanzibar Malaria Control Program. Malaria Elimination in Zanzibar: A Feasibility Assessment. Zanzibar, Tanzania: Zanzibar Ministry of Health and Social Welfare; 2010. [Google Scholar]
  24. [27]Hsiang MS, Abeyasinghe R, Whittaker M, Feachem RGA Malaria elimination in Asia-Pacific: an under-told story. Lancet. 2010;375:1586–1587. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60350-9. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  25. [28]Southern African Development Community (SADC) (2009) Elimination Eight (E8) Regional Initiative. Ministerial Resolution. Available at http://www.globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/pdf/E8MinResolution_20090303.pdf. Accessed June, 2010. [Google Scholar]
  26. [29]Pearce RJ, et al. Multiple origins and regional dispersal of resistant dhps in African Plasmodium falciparum malaria. PLoS Med. 2009;6:e1000055. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000055. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  27. [30]Tatem AJ, et al. The use of mobile phone data for the estimation of the travel patterns and imported Plasmodium falciparum rates among Zanzibar residents. Malar J. 2009;8:287. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-8-287. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  28. [31]Vazquez-Prokopec GM, et al. Usefulness of commercially available GPS data-loggers for tracking human movement and exposure to dengue virus. Int J Health Geogr. 2009;8:68. doi: 10.1186/1476-072X-8-68. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  29. [32]González MC, Hidalgo CA, Barabási AL. Understanding individual human mobility patterns. Nature. 2008;453:779–782. doi: 10.1038/nature06958. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  30. [34]Stoddard ST, et al. The role of human movement in the transmission of vector-borne pathogens. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2009;3:e481. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000481. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  31. [35]Cosner C, et al. The effects of human movement on the persistence of vector-borne diseases. J Theor Biol. 2009;258:550–560. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.02.016. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  32. [36]Prothero RM. Disease and mobility: A neglected factor in epidemiology. Int J Epidemiol. 1977;6:259–267. doi: 10.1093/ije/6.3.259. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  33. [37]Parsons CR, Skeldon R, Walmsley TL, Winters LA. Quantifying international migration: A database of bilateral migrant stocks. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4165. 2007 Available at http://econ.worldbank.org/ Accessed January, 2010. [Google Scholar]
  34. [38]United Nations. Trends in Total Migrant Stock 1960-2000. New York: United Nations Population Division; 2004. [Google Scholar]
  35. [39]Chamratrithirong A, Archavanitkul K, Richter K, Guest P, Thongthai V. National Migration Survey of Thailand. Bangkok: Mahidol University; 1995. [Google Scholar]
  36. [40]United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects, 2008 Revision. New York: United Nations; 2008. [Google Scholar]
  37. [41]Hay SI, Smith DL, Snow RW. Measuring malaria endemicity from intense to interrupted transmission. Lancet Infect Dis. 2008;8:369–378. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(08)70069-0. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  38. [42]Balk DL, et al. Determining global population distribution: Methods, applications and data. Adv Parasitol. 2006;62:119–156. doi: 10.1016/S0065-308X(05)62004-0. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  39. [43]Tatem AJ, Noor AM, von Hagen C, Di Gregorio A, Hay SI. High resolution population maps for low income nations: Combining land cover and census in East Africa. PLoS ONE. 2007;2:e1298. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0001298. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  40. [44]Macdonald G. The Epidemiology and Control of Malaria. London: Oxford Univ Press; 1957. [Google Scholar]
  41. [45]Mouchet J, et al. Biodiversité du Paludisme Dans le Monde. Montrouge, France: John Libbey Eurotext; 2004. [Google Scholar]
  42. [46]Pons P, Latapy M. Computing communities in large networks using random walks. Lect Notes Comput Sci. 2005;3733:284–293. [Google Scholar]
  43. [47]Kim Y, Son S-W, Jeong H. Link rank: Finding communities in directed networks. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2010;81:016103. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.81.016103. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  44. [49]Clauset A, Newman MEJ, Moore C. Finding community structure in very large networks. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2004;70:066111. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.70.066111. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  45. [50]Reichardt J, Bornholdt S. Statistical mechanics of community detection. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2006;74:016110. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.74.016110. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  46. [51]R Development Core Team. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2009. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Available at http://www.R-project.org/ Accessed May, 2010. [Google Scholar]

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Tatem, A. J., & Smith, D. L.
Affiliations
  • University of Florida (US)
  • Johns Hopkins University (US)
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2010-06-21
Volume
107
Issue
27
Pages
12222-12227
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1002971107
PMC
PMC2901446
OpenAlex
W2070030930
Cited by
168
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 16
FWCI
14.95
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
Funders
Wellcome Trust
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Travel-related health issues
Keywords
Plasmodium falciparum, malaria elimination, international migration, human movement, imported malaria, migration networks, recolonization, West Africa, Central Asia
MeSH terms
Communicable Disease Control, Emigration and Immigration, Geography, Humans, International Cooperation, Population Dynamics, Global Health, Malaria, Falciparum

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review