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Cited by 173Climate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsOceanographic and Atmospheric Processes

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

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O’Gorman, Paul A.·2010·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1011547107PMC PMC2984218
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Abstract

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

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  • Changes in RHS of Eq. (2) are expected to be relatively small given modest changes in eddy kinetic energy and eddy length.

    “The vertical velocity still depends on RHS, but changes in this would be expected to be relatively small given modest changes in eddy kinetic energy [57] and eddy length [40].”

    From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [57]

  • Changes in extratropical eddy kinetic energy are relatively modest and can be either positive or negative depending on the season and hemisphere.

    “Changes in extratropical eddy kinetic energy are relatively modest and can be either positive or negative depending on the season and hemisphere [57]”

    From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [57]

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1 of the 31 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 10

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Authors
O’Gorman, P. A.
Affiliations
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
Corresponding author
O’Gorman, Paul A.
ORCID
O’Gorman, Paul A.
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2010-10-25
Volume
107
Issue
45
Pages
19176-19180
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1011547107
PMC
PMC2984218
OpenAlex
W2136888834
Cited by
173
References
31
Citations by year
2026: 10 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 10
FWCI
9.76
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Energy
  • Office of Science
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Keywords
extratropical storm tracks, climate change, available potential energy, seasonal cycle, transient eddies, atmospheric energy transport, multi-model ensemble, global warming, inter-model variability
MeSH terms
Computer Simulation, Seasons, Weather, Cyclonic Storms, Climate Change, Global Warming

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