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Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

Open access
Elliott, Joshua, Deryng, Delphine, Müller, Christoph, Frieler, Katja, Konzmann, Markus, Gerten, Dieter, Glotter, Michael, Flörke, Martina, Wada, Yoshihide, Best, Neil, Eisner, Stephanie, Fekete, Balázs M., Folberth, Christian, Foster, Ian, Gosling, Simon N., Haddeland, Ingjerd, Khabarov, Nikolay, Ludwig, Fulco, Masaki, Yoshimitsu, Olin, Stefan, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Satoh, Yusuke, Schmid, Erwin, Stacke, Tobias, Tang, Qiuhong, Wisser, Dominik·2014·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Abstract

Significance: Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required.

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Metadata

Authors
Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Flörke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Folberth, C., Foster, I., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Olin, S., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., & Wisser, D.
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2013-12-16
Volume
111
Issue
9
Pages
3239-3244
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
OpenAlex
W2115385872
Cited by
1,146
References
5
FWCI
49.19
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
bronze

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1073/pnas.1222474110
The paper
Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Flörke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Folberth, C., Foster, I., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., . . . Wisser, D. (2014). Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222474110

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

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