Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Open accessAbstract
Global demand and consumption of agricultural crops for food, feed, and fuel is increasing at a rapid pace. This demand for plant materials has been expanding for many years. However, recent increases in meat consumption in emerging economies together with accelerating use of grain for biofuel production in developed countries have placed new pressures on global grain supplies. To satisfy the growing, worldwide demand for grain, two broad options are available: (1) The area under production can be increased or (2) productivity can be improved on existing farmland. These two options are not mutually exclusive and both will be employed to produce the additional 200 million tonnes/year of corn (Zea mays) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) estimated to be needed by 2017. Both options will alter the environmental footprint of farming. Of the two options, increasing productivity on existing agricultural land is preferable as it avoids greenhouse gas emissions and the large-scale disruption of existing ecosystems associated with bringing new land into production. In the United States, breeders, agronomists, and farmers have a documented history of increasing yield. U.S. average corn yields have increased from approximately 1.6 tonnes/ha in the first third of the 20th century to today's approximately 9.5 tonnes/ha. This dramatic yield improvement is due to the development and widespread use of new farming technologies such as hybrid corn, synthetic fertilizers, and farm machinery. The introduction of biotechnology traits and development of new breeding methodology using DNA-based markers are further improving yields. Outside the United States, similar farming practices have been adopted in some agricultural nations, but in many major grain-producing countries, yields still lag well behind world averages. By continuing to develop new farming technologies and deploying of them on a global basis, demand for feed, fuel, and food can be met without the commitment of large land areas to new production. Estimates of global meat consumption and grain-based biofuel production. A, Global meat consumption estimates from OECD-FAO (2008). Meat consumption outside of the OECD is expected to increase by 48 million tonnes/year in the next decade. B, Global grain-based biofuel production estimates from FAPRI (2008). Grain-based biofuel production is expected to increase by 28 billion liters/year in the next decade. Global corn and wheat production and consumption estimates from FAPRI's 2008 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook All values are in million tonnes/year. Global corn and wheat production and consumption estimates from FAPRI's 2008 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook All values are in million tonnes/year. The Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) estimates that an additional 6 million ha of corn and 4 million ha of wheat plus a roughly 12% increase in global corn and wheat yields will be used to produce this additional 200 million tonnes of grain. Both increases in planted area and increases in yield are likely to be needed to meet global demand for grain. However, improving yield on existing agricultural land will have a lower environmental impact than bringing new land into production. Cultivation of new acreage requires land clearing and subsequent tillage that results in significant greenhouse gas emissions (Fargione et al., 2008) also has negative impacts upon biodiversity and water quality (Foley et al., 2005). Increasing the productivity of existing agricultural land will also have environmental consequences (Tilman et al., 2002), but the negative consequences are generally less onerous and in some cases can be positive, depending upon how the land was previously used. Increased use of nitrogen fertilizers, a concern with both methods of increasing production, can increase nitrous oxide emissions, reduce water quality, and increase the size of hypoxic zones (Donner and Kucharik, 2008). However, incremental yield increases can be achieved on existing agricultural land through conservation tillage or transgenic insect control. Conservation tillage can decrease erosion, conserve soil moisture, and increase soil organic matter (Lal, 2004), and transgenic insect control can reduce broad spectrum insecticide use (Qaim and Zilberman, 2003; Cattaneo et al., 2006). Annual corn yield averages and area planted in the United States and the world. Yield rate of gain in the United States from 1961 to 2007 was 0.11 tonnes ha−1 year−1. Global yield rate of gain was about half of this at 0.06 tonnes ha−1 year−1. Global corn area harvested has been increasing at the rate of 0.93 million ha/year. In the United States, corn area harvested increased by approximately 5 million ha in 2007 and 2008, although the long-term trend is much lower at 0.15 million ha/year (FAO, 2008). Lines indicate yield trend line. Average corn yields from high- and low-yielding countries Values are 5-year averages from 2003 to 2007 (FAO, 2008). Yield, harvested
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Global demand for corn and wheat for feed, food, and fuel is projected to require about 200 million tonnes/year more by 2017, and increasing productivity on existing farmland is preferable to expanding cropland. Advances in breeding, marker-assisted selection, biotechnology traits, and agronomic practices could substantially raise yields, potentially doubling U.S. corn yields over two decades.
Key findings
- FAPRI estimates an additional 200 million tonnes/year of corn and wheat will be needed by 2017, bringing total demand to approximately 1.5 billion tonnes/year; meeting this would require about 6 million additional ha of corn, 4 million additional ha of wheat, and a roughly 12% increase in global corn and wheat yields.
- Raising corn yields in the 10 largest below-average corn-producing countries to the world average of 4.9 tonnes/ha would produce an additional 100 million tonnes of corn, about 80% of projected growth in demand by 2017.
- U.S. average corn yields increased from approximately 1.6 tonnes/ha in the first third of the 20th century to approximately 9.5 tonnes/ha today; global average corn yield is 4.9 tonnes/ha, U.S. average is 9.4 tonnes/ha, and the 10 largest lower-yielding countries average 2.8 tonnes/ha.
- Marker-assisted breeding and biotechnology traits can improve rates of gain; in 2008 U.S. farmers planted 11 million ha of triple-stacked corn, which could increase U.S. corn supply by approximately 5% if 2005–2007 yield results are manifested, and the combination of technologies has the potential to double U.S. corn yields to approximately 20 tonnes/ha over the next two decades.
Methods
- Review/update synthesizing published data and projections from FAPRI’s 2008 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook, FAO 2008, OECD-FAO 2008, USDA sources, and Monsanto studies.
- Uses global and regional production, consumption, area, and yield data; genetic gain experiments with era hybrids; commercial corn and soybean populations; and multiyear field trials of biotechnology traits.
- Main analysis is descriptive and projection-based, comparing yields and extrapolating demand and yield trends; no new primary experimental design is reported.
Limitations
- Stated: climate change may increase night temperatures, adverse weather events, and pest/disease incidence and drag on yields; nitrogen may become less available as fertilizer costs rise and environmental concerns grow; a sharp global economic downturn could reduce demand and incentives to increase yields; wheat and rice lack large private breeding programs and need increased public support.
- Evident: the author and several data sources are Monsanto-affiliated, and the projections rely on company breeding and trait data plus adoption assumptions; no formal uncertainty or sensitivity analysis is reported.
- Evident: the 2017 and two-decade projections are scenario-based rather than validated outcomes.
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- Findingnone given§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Between 1935 and 1990 the gap between test plot results and on-farm yield averages shrank from about 3.0 tonnes/ha to about 1.8 tonnes/ha.
“Between 1935 and1990 this gap shrank from about 3.0 tonnes/ha to about 1.8 tonnes/ha.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingcitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Results from a Monsanto Company study of a large number of commercial corn and soybean populations indicated that use of markers can improve the rate of gain for yield and associated traits such as grain moisture and stalk lodging.
“Results from a Monsanto Company study of a large number of commercial corn and soybean (Glycine max) populations indicated that use of markers can improve the rate of gain for yield and associated traits such as grain moisture and stalk lodging (Fig. 4; Eathington et al., 2007).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Eathington et al., 2007
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- Findingown data§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
As rates of gain derived from breeding have increased in recent years, the gap between test plot results and on-farm yield averages appears to have widened again.
“However, as rates of gain derived from breeding have increased in recent years (Fig. 3B), this gap appears to have widened again.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
The suite of biotechnology traits currently used in commercial production in the United States increases average yields by protecting corn from the stress of competing pests and weeds.
“Likewise, the suite of biotechnology traits currently used in commercial production in the United States increases average yields by protecting corn from the stress of competing pests and weeds (Fig. 5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
By continuing to develop new farming technologies and deploying them on a global basis, demand for feed, fuel, and food can be met without the commitment of large land areas to new production.
“By continuing to develop new farming technologies and deploying of them on a global basis, demand for feed, fuel, and food can be met without the commitment of large land areas to new production.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
During the same period, biofuel production from corn and, to a lesser extent, wheat is expected to grow by 28 billion liters to 67 billion liters/year.
“During this same period, biofuel production from corn and, to a lesser extent, wheat is expected to grow by 28 billion liters to 67 billion liters/year (Fig. 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites FAPRI, 2008
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- Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Among urban Chinese, meat consumption rose from 25 kg/person/year to 32 kg/person/year between 1996 and 2006.
“Among urban Chinese, meat consumption rose from 25 kg person 21 year 21 to 32 kg person 21 year 21 between 1996and 2006(von Braun, 2007)).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites von Braun, 2007
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- Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Globally, meat consumption is expected to grow by 55 million tonnes to 310 million tonnes/year over the next decade.
“Globally, meat consumption is expected to grow by 55 million tonnes to 310 million tonnes/year over the next decade (OECD-FAO, 2008).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites OECD-FAO, 2008
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- Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Total demand for corn and wheat over the next decade is expected to increase by about 15% or about 200 million tonnes/year to a total of approximately 1.5 billion tonnes/year.
“When food use for corn and wheat is added to the calculation, total demand for corn and wheat over the next decade is expected to increase by about 15% or about 200 million tonnes/year to a total of approximately 1.5 billion tonnes/year (Table I;FAPRI, 2008).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites FAPRI, 2008
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- Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Transgenic insect control can reduce broad spectrum insecticide use.
“Conservation tillage can decrease erosion, conserve soil moisture, and increase soil organic matter (Lal, 2004), and transgenic insect control can reduce broad spectrum insecticide use (Qaim and Zilberman, 2003;Cattaneo et al., 2006).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Qaim and Zilberman, 2003
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- cites Cattaneo et al., 2006
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- Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Incorporation of marker-assisted breeding and biotechnology traits into crop improvement programs is likely to increase rates of gain beyond those seen in the last few decades.
“Incorporation of these technologies into crop improvement programs is likely to increase rates of gain beyond those seen in the last few decades.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
This level of planting will increase corn supply in the United States by approximately 5% if yield results seen in 2005 to 2007 are manifested in the 2008 growing season.
“While the yield benefits of these biotechnology traits vary from year to year, this level of planting will increase corn supply in the United States by approximately 5% if yield results seen in 2005 to 2007 are manifested in the 2008 growing season.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
The next generation of commercialized biotechnology traits is likely to have a larger impact on crop yields.
“The next generation of commercialized, biotechnology traits is likely to have a larger impact on crop yields.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Improving yields in corn and other crops on a global basis will allow farmers to meet global demand for feed, fuel, and food while minimizing the need to bring large amounts of new land into crop production.
“Improving yields in corn and other crops on a global basis will allow farmers to meet global demand for feed, fuel, and food while minimizing the need to bring large amounts of new land into crop production.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Rising yields will markedly diminish the global need for new crop acreage.
- Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
The combination of marker-assisted breeding, biotechnology traits, and continued advances in agronomic practices has the potential to double corn yields in the United States over the next two decades.
“The combination of marker-assisted breeding, biotechnology traits, and continued advances in agro- nomic practices has the potential to double corn yields in the United States over the next two decades (Fig. 7).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Drought conditions strong enough to reduce yield will be seen on approximately 10% of the planted acres.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Biotechnology trait adoption curves will follow those observed for current commercially available biotechnology traits.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Three new yield-enhancing biotechnology traits with effects similar to those described by Padgette (2008) will be introduced over the course of the next decade.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Agronomic contributions to the rate of yield improvement will proceed at current historical rates.
- Interpretationcitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
The result of these climate change effects could be a drag on crop yields.
“The result could be a drag on crop yields (Hatfield et al., 2008).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Hatfield et al., 2008
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- Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Genetic gain experiments estimate that about 50% of the yield gained between the introduction of hybrid corn and today is derived from breeding and the remainder from improved agronomic practices.
“Genetic gain experiments, in which hybrids that were widely grown at different points in time, often referred to as era hybrids, are compared side by side in the same trials, have been employed to estimate that about 50% of the yield gained between the introduction of hybrid corn, and today is derived from breeding and the remainder from improved agronomic practices (Duvick, 2005).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Duvick, 2005
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- Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Increasing the use of modern farming practices in low-yielding countries, together with infrastructure, marketing, and risk management tools, could lead to significant increases in crop production that limit the need to bring incremental land into production.
“Increasing the use of modern farming practices in these countries, together with the infrastructure, marketing, and risk management tools needed to support them, could lead to significant increases in crop production that limit the need to bring incremental land into production.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Nitrogen use efficiency has steadily improved in the United States since the 1980s.
“Nitrogen use efficiency, defined as the amount of crop produced per unit of input, has steadily improved in the United States since the 1980s (Frink et al., 1999).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Frink et al., 1999
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- Interpretationcitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Improving yield on existing agricultural land will have a lower environmental impact than bringing new land into production.
“However, improving yield on existing agricultural land will have a lower environmental impact than bringing new land into production.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Fargione et al., 2008
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- cites Foley et al., 2005
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- Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and Fuel
Higher crop prices will provide farmers with the economic incentive to invest in farming methods and technologies that improve crop yields.
“However, higher crop prices will also provide farmers with the economic incentive to invest in farming methods and technologies that improve crop yields (von Braun, 2007;Gallagher, 2008).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites von Braun, 2007
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- cites Gallagher, 2008
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- May combine two claims. 20
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 5
May combine two claims.
Findingnone given§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelRaising corn yields in the 10 largest, below average, corn-producing countries to just the world average will result in the production of an additional 100 million tonnes of corn or about 80% of the projected growth in demand by 2017.
“Raising corn yields in the 10 largest, below average, corn-producing countries to just the world average will result in the production of an additional 100 million tonnes of corn or about 80% of the projected growth in demand by 2017.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Rising yields will markedly diminish the global need for new crop acreage.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelIncreasing productivity on existing agricultural land is preferable to bringing new land into production because it avoids greenhouse gas emissions and large-scale disruption of existing ecosystems.
“Of the two options, increasing productivity on existing agricultural land is preferable as it avoids greenhouse gas emissions and the large-scale disruption of existing ecosystems associated with bringing new land into production.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Fargione et al., 2008
Not checked in the free run.
- cites Foley et al., 2005
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Premisenone given§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelRecent increases in meat consumption in emerging economies together with accelerating use of grain for biofuel production in developed countries have placed new pressures on global grain supplies.
“However, recent increases in meat consumption in emerging economies together with accelerating use of grain for biofuel production in developed countries have placed new pressures on global grain supplies.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Premisereasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelGlobal demand and consumption of agricultural crops for food, feed, and fuel is increasing at a rapid pace.
“Global demand and consumption of agricultural crops for food, feed, and fuel is increasing at a rapid pace.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelBoth area expansion and productivity improvement will be employed to produce the additional 200 million tonnes/year of corn and wheat estimated to be needed by 2017.
“These two options are not mutually exclusive and both will be employed to produce the additional 200 million tonnes/year of corn (Zea mays) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) estimated to be needed by 2017.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelDoubling U.S. average yields would raise average yields to approximately 20 tonnes/ha, values now seen rarely in nonirrigated corn.
“Doubling U.S. average yields would raise average yields to approximately 20 tonnes/ha, values now seen rarely in nonirrigated corn.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelCollectively, the next generation of biotechnology traits should contribute significantly to productivity on existing cropland, thereby increasing grain supplies and reducing the need to bring new land into production.
“Collectively, the next generation of biotechnology traits should contribute significantly to productivity on existing cropland, thereby increasing grain supplies and reduce the need to bring new land into production.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelCultivation of new acreage requires land clearing and subsequent tillage that results in significant greenhouse gas emissions and has negative impacts upon biodiversity and water quality.
“Cultivation of new acreage requires land clearing and subsequent tillage that results in significant greenhouse gas emissions (Fargione et al., 2008) also has negative impacts upon biodiversity and water quality (Foley et al., 2005).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Fargione et al., 2008
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- cites Foley et al., 2005
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May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelFAPRI estimates that an additional 6 million ha of corn and 4 million ha of wheat plus a roughly 12% increase in global corn and wheat yields will be used to produce this additional 200 million tonnes of grain.
“The Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) estimates that an additional 6 million ha of corn and 4 million ha of wheat plus a roughly 12% increase in global corn and wheat yields will be used to produce this additional 200 million tonnes of grain.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites FAPRI, 2008
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelOver the next two decades, climate change effects in the central United States are predicted to increase night air temperatures, the number and severity of adverse weather events, and increase the incidence of insect pests and disease.
“Over the next two decades, climate change effects in the central United States are predicted to increase night air temperatures, the number and severity of adverse weather events, and increase the incidence of insect pests and disease.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Hatfield et al., 2008
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone given§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelDrought tolerance has the potential to increase yields in drier areas, increase average yields in rain-fed systems by reducing the effects of sporadic drought, and decrease water requirements in irrigated systems.
“Drought tolerance has the potential to ( 1) increase yields in drier areas, (2) increase average yields in rain-fed systems by reducing the effects of sporadic drought, and (3) decrease water requirements in irrigated systems.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelThe theoretical light-limited maximum for corn yields in the United States has been estimated at approximately 25 tonnes/ha, close to the 24.2 tonnes/ha recorded on a 2-ha plot by David Hula in the 2007 National Corn Growers Association Corn Yield Contest.
“The theoretical lightlimited maximum for corn yields in the United States has been estimated at approximately 25 tonnes/ha (Specht et al., 1999;Tollenaar and Lee, 2002), close to the 24.2 tonnes/ha recorded on a 2-ha plot by David Hula of Charles City, Virginia in the 2007 National Corn Growers Association Corn Yield Contest.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Specht et al., 1999
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- cites Tollenaar and Lee, 2002
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May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelIncreased use of nitrogen fertilizers can increase nitrous oxide emissions, reduce water quality, and increase the size of hypoxic zones.
“Increased use of nitrogen fertilizers, a concern with both methods of increasing production, can increase nitrous oxide emissions, reduce water quality, and increase the size of hypoxic zones (Donner and Kucharik, 2008).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Donner and Kucharik, 2008
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelBoth increases in planted area and increases in yield are likely to be needed to meet global demand for grain.
“Both increases in planted area and increases in yield are likely to be needed to meet global demand for grain.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelConservation tillage can decrease erosion, conserve soil moisture, and increase soil organic matter.
“Conservation tillage can decrease erosion, conserve soil moisture, and increase soil organic matter (Lal, 2004), and transgenic insect control can reduce broad spectrum insecticide use (Qaim and Zilberman, 2003;Cattaneo et al., 2006).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Lal, 2004
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelCorn yields in the 10 largest lower-yielding corn-producing countries are just 2.8 tonnes/ha, well below the global average.
“In contrast, corn yields in the 10 largest lower-yielding corn-producing countries are just 2.8 tonnes/ha (Table II; FAO, 2008), well below the global average.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites FAO, 2008
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Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelEven if crop producers supported by the agricultural sector fall short of doubling yields, continued public and private investment in agricultural technology will lead to significant increases in productivity that will help supply the world's needs for food, meat, and energy in a sustainable fashion.
“Even if crop producers supported by the agricultural sector fall short of doubling yields, continued public and private investment in agricultural technology will lead to significant increases in productivity that will help supply the world's needs for food, meat, and energy in a sustainable fashion.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelYields in major grain-producing countries are nearly double the global average, suggesting that there is room for significant improvements in global yields.
“This is encouraging, but yields in major grain-producing countries are nearly double the global average, suggesting that there is room for significant improvements in global yields.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Premisenone given§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelA 10 tonnes/ha corn crop contains around 100 kg nitrogen/ha as protein and at least this amount of nitrogen must be added back to the field to maintain fertility.
“A 10 tonnes/ha corn crop contains around 100 kg nitrogen/ha as protein and at least this amount of nitrogen must be added back to the field to maintain fertility.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationreasoning§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelThis fact suggests that corn yields can be doubled without large increases in yield potential, although significant improvements in broad stress tolerance, water use efficiency, and broad dissemination of excellent agronomic practices will be required to approach the Hula yield on broad acreage.
“This fact suggests that corn yields can be doubled without large increases in yield potential, although significant improvements in broad stress tolerance, water use efficiency, and broad dissemination of excellent agronomic practices will be required to approach the Hula yield on broad acreage.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone given§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelThe contribution of biotechnology traits to world corn supply will increase as they are used more widely.
“The contribution of biotechnology traits to world corn supply will increase as they are used more widely.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ Update on Increasing Crop Productivity Increasing Crop Productivity to Meet Global Needs for Feed, Food, and FuelGlobal corn yields average 4.9 tonnes/ha and have been increasing steadily for many years.
“Global corn yields average 4.9 tonnes/ha and have been increasing steadily for many years (Fig. 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites FAO, 2008
Not checked in the free run.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Drought conditions strong enough to reduce yield will be seen on approximately 10% of the planted acres.
“Biotechnology contributions to yield from drought tolerance are estimated from data presented in Figure 6 and an assumption that drought conditions strong enough to reduce yield will be seen on approximately 10% of the planted acres.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Biotechnology trait adoption curves will follow those observed for current commercially available biotechnology traits.
“In each case biotechnology trait adoption curves such as those observed for current commercially available biotechnology traits are assumed (Monsanto, 2008).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Three new yield-enhancing biotechnology traits with effects similar to those described by Padgette (2008) will be introduced over the course of the next decade.
“Biotechnology contributions from yield-enhancing transgenes assume the introduction of three new biotechnology traits with effects similar to those described by Padgette (2008) over the course of the next decade.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Agronomic contributions to the rate of yield improvement will proceed at current historical rates.
“Agronomic (planting density, fertilizer use efficiency, improvements in soil management) contributions to the rate of yield improvement are considered to proceed at current historical rates based on estimates in Duvick (2005).”
The paper relies on this without support.
Rising yields will markedly diminish the global need for new crop acreage.
“Implicit in this scenario is the idea that rising yields will markedly diminish the global need for new crop acreage.”
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Many examples show huge variation in phenotype achievable in agricultural breeding populations.
“There are, of course, many examples (e.g.Lippman and Tanksley, 2001;Hill, 2005;Edgerton, 2009;Johansson et al., 2010) that show the huge variation in phenotype achievable in agricultural breeding populations”
From Breeding crop plants with deep roots: their role in sustainable carbon, nutrient and water sequestration (2011) · cites this paper as Edgerton, 2009
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- Authors
- Edgerton, M. D.
- Affiliations
- Monsanto (United States) (US)
- Corresponding author
- Edgerton, Michael D.
- Venue
- Plant Physiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2009-01-01
- Volume
- 149
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 7-13
- ISSN
- 0032-0889 (ISSN-L)
- 1532-2548
- PMC
- PMC2613695
- OpenAlex
- W2114522764
- Semantic Scholar
- 5e4e49409e8344f006b3064a983cc6afe426c391
- Cited by
- 513
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 43 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 23 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 39 · 2013: 25 · 2012: 35
- FWCI
- 4.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
- Locations
- PLANT PHYSIOLOGY (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Crop Yield and Soil Fertility
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Agricultural Productivity and Crop Improvement
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- crop productivity, grain yield improvement, maize yield, wheat yield, biofuels, meat consumption, land expansion, greenhouse gas emissions, maize hybrids, mineral fertilizers, DNA markers, agricultural technology adoption, food security, feed demand, emerging markets, yield gap
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Animal Feed, Zea mays, United States, Triticum, Crops, Agricultural
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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