Agriculture in 2050: Recalibrating Targets for Sustainable Intensification
Abstract
The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals.
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A main reason for the difference between the authors' SSP2 projection and the FAO trend is that the FAO trend uses an earlier base year (2005/2007), which overestimates the expected increase in food consumption relative to the 2010 base year used in the review.
“The main reason is that the FAO trend is estimated using the earlier base year 2005/2007 and therefore overestimates the expected increase in food consumption in comparison with the 2010 base year that is used in our review.”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [42]
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- Authors
- Hunter, M. C., Smith, R. G., Schipanski, M. E., Atwood, L. W., & Mortensen, D. A.
- Affiliations
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- University of New Hampshire (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
- Venue
- BioScience
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2017-02-22
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 386-391
- ISSN
- 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
- 1525-3244
- OpenAlex
- W2591121333
- Cited by
- 1,004
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 69 · 2025: 104 · 2024: 151 · 2023: 142 · 2022: 166 · 2021: 155 · 2020: 104 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 10
- FWCI
- 44.23
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- BioScience (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DGE1255832)
- USDA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture (2011-67003-30343)
- USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative (2011-51300-30638)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Chemistry › Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- sustainable intensification, future of agriculture, crop demand, nutrient loss, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, agricultural policy, ecosystem functioning
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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