How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface
Open accessAbstract
Significance: Recent wildfire events throughout the world have highlighted the consequences of residential development in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) including hundreds to thousands of homes burned during a single wildfire to, more tragically, firefighter and homeowner fatalities. Despite substantial investments in modifying wildland fuels near populated areas, losses appear to be increasing. In this article, we examine the conditions under which WUI wildfire disasters occur and introduce a wildfire risk assessment framework. By using this framework, we examine how prefire mitigation activities failed to prevent significant structure loss during the Fourmile Canyon fire outside Boulder, CO. In light of these results, we suggest the need to reevaluate and restructure wildfire mitigation programs aimed at reducing residential losses from wildfire.
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Highly damaging wildfires such as the Waldo Canyon, Fourmile, and Black Forest Fires occur during the 2 percent of events where suppression is not effective.
“Highly damaging wildfires such as the Waldo Canyon, Fourmile, and Black Forest Fires occur during the 2 percent of events where suppression is not effective (Calkin et al. 2014).”
From Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management (2015) · cites this paper as Calkin et al. 2014
The Significance section says suppression is effective 95%–98% of the time and that fires escaping suppression can become disastrous; this implies a 2%–5% range, not exactly 2%. The Fourmile Canyon case study describes a highly damaging fire that overwhelmed protection efforts, but the cited passages do not establish the same point for the named Waldo Canyon and Black Forest fires. Page numbers were not provided. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe WUI fire loss issue has been described as a home ignition problem more so than a wildland fire problem.
“the WUI fire loss issue has been described as home ignition problem more so than a wildland fire problem (Cohen 2000; Calkin et al. 2014).”
From Housing arrangement and vegetation factors associated with single-family home survival in the 2018 Camp Fire, California (2021) · cites this paper as Calkin et al. 2014
Failure to consider the conditions under which loss occurs may limit the effectiveness of investments in reducing residential property loss.
“Although wildfire risk reduction near the WUI has been targeted by public land management agencies, failure to consider the conditions under which loss occurs may limit the effectiveness of these investments in reducing residential property loss (Calkin et al. 2014).”
From Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management (2015) · cites this paper as Calkin et al. 2014
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- Authors
- Calkin, D. E., Cohen, J. D., Finney, M. A., & Thompson, M. P.
- Affiliations
- US Forest Service (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2013-12-16
- Volume
- 111
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 746-751
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3896199
- OpenAlex
- W2043387767
- Cited by
- 529
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 56 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 41 · 2023: 51 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 72 · 2020: 50 · 2019: 47 · 2018: 35 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 59.88
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Keywords
- wildfire risk management, wildland-urban interface, risk analysis, land management, first responders, western United States wildfires
- MeSH terms
- Cities, Colorado, Disaster Planning, Fires, Models, Theoretical, Risk Management, Wilderness
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