Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA
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Understanding the causes and consequences of wildfires in forests of the western United States requires integrated information about fire, climate changes, and human activity on multiple temporal scales. We use sedimentary charcoal accumulation rates to construct long-term variations in fire during the past 3,000 y in the American West and compare this record to independent fire-history data from historical records and fire scars. There has been a slight decline in burning over the past 3,000 y, with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE [Common Era]). Prominent peaks in forest fires occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950–1250 CE) and during the 1800s. Analysis of climate reconstructions beginning from 500 CE and population data show that temperature and drought predict changes in biomass burning up to the late 1800s CE. Since the late 1800s , human activities and the ecological effects of recent high fire activity caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the LIA fire decline. Consequently, there is now a forest “fire deficit” in the western United States attributable to the combined effects of human activities, ecological, and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century fires have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow.
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Identifying human influences in paleofire records of the Western United States has been challenging, notably because of the widespread importance of lightning-started fires.
“but identifying human influences in paleofire records of the region has been challenging (15), notably because of the widespread importance of lightning-started fires (16).”
From Tree rings reveal persistent Western Apache (Ndee) fire stewardship and niche construction in the American Southwest (2025) · cites this paper as [15]
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Roos, C. I., Zedeño, M. N., Hollenback, K. L., & Erlick, M. M. H. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1805259115 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Scherjon, F., Bakels, C., MacDonald, K., & Roebroeks, W. (2015) · Current Anthropology · doi:10.1086/681561 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Lower test scores from wildfire smoke exposure
Wen, J., & Burke, M. (2022) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-022-00956-y · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Wine, M. L., & Cadol, D. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/085006 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Alexandre, P. M., Stewart, S. I., Mockrin, M. H., Keuler, N. S., Syphard, A. D., Bar-Massada, A., Clayton, M. K., & Radeloff, V. C. (2016) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-015-0257-6 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
The North American tree‐ring fire‐scar network
Margolis, E. Q., Guiterman, C. H., Chavardès, R. D., Coop, J. D., Copes‐Gerbitz, K., Dawe, D. A., Falk, D. A., Johnston, J. D., Larson, E., Li, H., et al. (2022) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.4159 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Williams, C. J., Pierson, F. B., Robichaud, P. R., & Boll, J. (2014) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf12161 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Roos, C. I., Guiterman, C. H., Margolis, E. Q., Swetnam, T. W., Laluk, N. C., Thompson, K. F., Toya, C., Farris, C. A., Fulé, P. Z., Iniguez, J. M., et al. (2022) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abq3221 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Drought, multi-seasonal climate, and wildfire in northern New Mexico
Margolis, E. Q., Woodhouse, C. A., & Swetnam, T. W. (2017) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1958-4 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Is Anthropogenic Pyrodiversity Invisible in Paleofire Records?
Roos, C. I., Williamson, G. J., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2019) · Fire · doi:10.3390/fire2030042 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Kranabetter, J. M., McLauchlan, K. K., Enders, S. K., Fraterrigo, J. M., Higuera, P. E., Morris, J. L., Rastetter, E. B., Barnes, R., Buma, B., Gavin, D. G., et al. (2016) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-015-9934-1 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Self-citationDunbar-Irwin, M., & Safford, H. (2016) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2015.12.039 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Roos, C. I., Kaib, J. M., Laluk, N. C., Adams, M. M., Guiterman, C. H., Baisan, C. H., Morino, K., & Swetnam, T. W. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2509169122 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
“…Indigenous populations in the Western United States used cultural burning as a deliberate land management tool ( 14 ) but identifying human influences in paleofire records of the region has been challenging ( 15 ), notably because of the widespread importance of lightning - started fires ( 16 ).”
- Authors
- Marlon, J. R., Bartlein, P. J., Gavin, D. G., Long, C. J., Anderson, R. S., Briles, C. E., Brown, K. J., Colombaroli, D., Hallett, D. J., Power, M. J., Scharf, E. A., & Walsh, M. K.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- University of Oregon (US)
- University of Wisconsin–Oshkosh (US)
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- Monash University (AU)
- Canadian Forest Service (CA)
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland;
- University of Calgary (CA)
- University of Utah (US)
- University of North Dakota (US)
- Central Washington University (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2012-02-14
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- E535-43
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3295264
- OpenAlex
- W2059904261
- Cited by
- 629
- References
- 83
- Citations by year
- 2026: 38 · 2025: 41 · 2024: 55 · 2023: 71 · 2022: 57 · 2021: 61 · 2020: 35 · 2019: 51 · 2018: 38 · 2017: 41 · 2016: 37 · 2015: 39 · 2014: 33 · 2013: 25 · 2012: 7
- FWCI
- 27.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ScholarWorks (Central Washington University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tree-ring climate responses
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Forest Management and Policy
- Keywords
- wildfire history, sedimentary charcoal, Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, climate change and fire, drought, human impact on fire, fire scars, historical fire records, western United States forests, paleoclimate
- MeSH terms
- Charcoal, Fires, Humans, Human Activities, Temperature, Trees, Southwestern United States, Biomass, Geologic Sediments, History, 15th Century, History, 16th Century, History, 17th Century, History, 18th Century, History, 19th Century, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, History, Ancient, History, Medieval, Droughts, Climate Change
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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