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Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO 2 emissions
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Significance: Agriculture is a key driver of tropical deforestation, and there is heated debate about whether productivity-enhancing crop innovations can slow such environmental degradation. For fixed food demand, globally higher yields will reduce cropland and hence deforestation. However, regional innovations often boost agricultural profitability and lower prices, thereby leading to cropland expansion in the innovating region. This paper develops a framework for understanding the impact of regional innovations on global land use and the environment. Although the historical Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East is shown to have been land sparing, a future Green Revolution in Africa could lead to global cropland expansion in the context of a more fully integrated global agricultural economy.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Hertel, T. W., Ramankutty, N., & Baldos, U. L. C.
- Affiliations
- Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
- McGill University (CA)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2014-09-08
- Volume
- 111
- Issue
- 38
- Pages
- 13799-13804
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC4183291
- OpenAlex
- W2116032367
- Cited by
- 141
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 1
- FWCI
- 14.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (DE‐SC005171)
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
- University of Minnesota
- Office of Science (DE-SC005171)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Agricultural economics and policies
- Keywords
- African Green Revolution, land sparing, land use, agricultural productivity, CO2 emissions, counterfactual analysis, globalization of agriculture, land rent, crop prices, agricultural intensification, environmental impact of agriculture
- MeSH terms
- Africa, Carbon Dioxide, Humans, Models, Biological, Crops, Agricultural, Models, Economic, Marketing
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