Cited by 141Climate change impacts on agricultureLand Use and Ecosystem ServicesAgricultural economics and policies

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Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO 2 emissions

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Hertel, Thomas W., Ramankutty, Navin, Baldos, Uris Lantz C.·2014·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI 10.1073/pnas.1403543111PMC PMC4183291

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Abstract

Significance: Agriculture is a key driver of tropical deforestation, and there is heated debate about whether productivity-enhancing crop innovations can slow such environmental degradation. For fixed food demand, globally higher yields will reduce cropland and hence deforestation. However, regional innovations often boost agricultural profitability and lower prices, thereby leading to cropland expansion in the innovating region. This paper develops a framework for understanding the impact of regional innovations on global land use and the environment. Although the historical Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East is shown to have been land sparing, a future Green Revolution in Africa could lead to global cropland expansion in the context of a more fully integrated global agricultural economy.

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Authors: Hertel, T. W., Ramankutty, N., & Baldos, U. L. C.
Affiliations: Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
McGill University (CA)
ORCID: Hertel, Thomas W.
Ramankutty, Navin
Baldos, Uris Lantz C.
Venue: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Published: 2014-09-08
Volume: 111
Issue: 38
Pages: 13799-13804
ISSN: 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1403543111
PMC: PMC4183291
OpenAlex: W2116032367
Cited by: 141
References: 41
Citations by year: 2026: 5 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 18 · 2014: 1
FWCI: 14.04
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy (DE‐SC005171)
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
University of Minnesota
Office of Science (DE-SC005171)
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Agricultural economics and policies
Keywords: African Green Revolution, land sparing, land use, agricultural productivity, CO2 emissions, counterfactual analysis, globalization of agriculture, land rent, crop prices, agricultural intensification, environmental impact of agriculture
MeSH terms: Africa, Carbon Dioxide, Humans, Models, Biological, Crops, Agricultural, Models, Economic, Marketing

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Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO 2 emissions

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