Global rise in emerging alien species results from increased accessibility of new source pools
Open accessAbstract
Significance: Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species—those never before encountered as aliens—therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Using a global database of the first regional records of alien species covering the years 1500–2005 we detected a surprisingly high proportion of species in recent records that have never been recorded as alien before. The high proportion of these emerging alien species mainly resulted from the increased accessibility of new source species pools in the native range. Risk assessment approaches that rely less on invasion history will need to be prioritized.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Emerging alien species have no invasion history; their potential spread and impacts will therefore be difficult to predict.
“These emerging alien species have no invasion history; their potential spread and impacts will therefore be difficult to predict (Seebens et al., 2018).”
From Scientists' warning on invasive alien species (2020) · cites this paper as Seebens et al., 2018
In the absence of concerted political and social action, expanding global trade will continue to transport many species with no history of invasion, some of which are likely to feature on future 'worst invaders' lists.
“However, in the absence of concerted political and social action, expanding global trade will continue to transport many species with no history of invasion (Seebens et al., 2018), some of which are likely to feature on future ‘worst invaders’ lists.”
From Scientists' warning on invasive alien species (2020) · cites this paper as Seebens et al., 2018
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Lewis, S. L., & Maslin, M. A. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14258 · Cited by 3,441 · cited 2× · see citing works
“Alien species have thus emerged as a defining feature of the Anthropocene (7).”
BackgroundKlein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., van Drecht, G., & de Vos, M. (2011) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00587.x · Cited by 1,270 · see citing works
Global exchange and accumulation of non-native plants
van Kleunen, M., Dawson, W., Essl, F., Pergl, J., Winter, M., Weber, E., Kreft, H., Weigelt, P., Kartesz, J., Nishino, M., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14910 · Cited by 1,095 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 33
- Capinha C, Essl F, Seebens H, Moser D, Pereira HM (2015) The dispersal of alien species redefines biogeography in the Anthropocene. Science 348(6240):1248-1251.
- Simberloff D, et al. (2013) Impacts of biological invasions: what's what and the way forward. Trends Ecol Evol 28(1):58-66.
- Pyšek P, Richardson DM (2010) Invasive Species, Environmental Change and Management, and Health. Annu Rev Environ Resour 35(1):25-55.
- Vilà M, et al. (2010) How well do we understand the impacts of alien species on ecosystem services? A pan-European, cross-taxa assessment. Front Ecol Environ 8(3):135-144.
- Hulme PE (2009) Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization. J Appl Ecol 46(1):10-18.
- Levine JM, D'Antonio CM (2003) Forecasting biological invasions with increasing international trade. Conserv Biol 17(1):322-326.
- Pyšek P, et al. (2010) Disentangling the role of environmental and human pressures on biological invasions across Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(27):12157-12162.
- Pauchard A, Alaback PB (2004) Influence of Elevation, Land Use, and Landscape Context on Patterns of Alien Plant Invasions along Roadsides in Protected Areas of South-Central Chile. Conserv Biol 18(1):238-248.
- Liebhold AM, Brockerhoff EG, Kimberley M (2017) Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates. J Appl Ecol Early view. doi:10.1111/1365- 2664.12895. · DOI
- Dyer EE, et al. (2017) The global distribution and drivers of alien bird species richness. PLOS Biol 15(1):e2000942.
- Leung B, et al. (2012) TEASIng apart alien species risk assessments: a framework for best practices. Ecol Lett 15(12):1475-93.
- Pyšek P, et al. (2017) Naturalized alien flora of the world. Preslia 89(3):203-274.
- Dyer EE, et al. (2016) A global analysis of the determinants of alien geographical range size in birds. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 25(11):1346-1355.
- Joppa LN, Roberts DL, Pimm SL (2011) How many species of flowering plants are there? Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 278(1705):554-559.
- Blackburn TM, Dyer EE, Su S, Cassey P (2015) Long after the event, or four things we (should) know about bird invasions. J Ornithol 156(1):15-25.
- Seebens H, et al. (2015) Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 21(11). doi:10.1111/gcb.13021. · DOI · Paper page
- Petitpierre B, et al. (2012) Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders. Science 335(6074):1344-1348.
- Bellard C, Leroy B, Thuiller W, Rysman JF, Courchamp F (2016) Major drivers of invasion risks throughout the world. Ecosphere 7(3):1-14.
- Hulme PE (2011) Addressing the threat to biodiversity from botanic gardens. Trends Ecol Evol 26(4):168-174.
- Pears N (1982) Familiar aliens: The acclimatisation societies' role in New Zealand's biogeography. Scott Geogr Mag 98(1):23-34.
- di Castri F (1989) History of biological invasions with special emphasis on the Old World. Biological Invasions: A Global Perspective, eds Drake JA, et al. (John Wiley and Sons, Chichester), pp 1-30.
- Fry C (2013) The Plant Hunters: The Adventures of the World's Greatest Botanical Explorers (University of Chicago Press, Chicago).
- Seebens H, et al. (2015) Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 21(11):4128-4140.
- Essl F, et al. (2015) Crossing Frontiers in Tackling Pathways of Biological Invasions. Bioscience 65(8):769-782.
- Casties I, Seebens H, Briski E (2016) Importance of geographic origin for invasion success: A case study of the North and Baltic Seas versus the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River region. Ecol Evol 6(22):8318-8329.
- Weigelt P, Jetz W, Kreft H (2013) Bioclimatic and physical characterization of the world's islands. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(38):15307-12.
- Blackburn TM, et al. (2011) A proposed unified framework for biological invasions. Trends Ecol Evol 26(7):333-339.
- Aukema JE, et al. (2010) Historical Accumulation of Nonindigenous Forest Pests in the Continental United States. Bioscience 60(11):886-897.
- Dawson W, et al. (2017) Global hotspots and correlates of alien species richness across taxonomic groups. Nat Ecol Evol 1(186):186.
- Chini LP, Hurtt GC, Frolking S (2014) Harmonized Global Land Use for Years 1500 - 2100, V1. doi:10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1248. · DOI
- Costello C, Springborn M, McAusland C, Solow A (2007) Unintended biological invasions: Does risk vary by trading partner? J Environ Econ Manage 54(3):262-276.
- Zuur AF, Ieno EN, Walker N, Saveliev AA, Smith GM (2009) Mixed effects models and extensions in ecology with R (Springer, New York) doi:10.1007/978-0-387-87458-6. · DOI · Paper page
- Delisle F, Lavoie C, Jean M, Lachance D (2003) Reconstructing the spread of invasive plants: taking into account biases associated with herbarium specimens. J Biogeogr 30(7):1033-1042.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Scientists' warning on invasive alien species
Pyšek, P., Hulme, P. E., Simberloff, D., Bacher, S., Blackburn, T. M., Carlton, J. T., Dawson, W., Essl, F., Foxcroft, L. C., Genovesi, P., et al. (2020) · Biological Reviews · doi:10.1111/brv.12627 · Cited by 2,234 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Seebens, H., Blackburn, T. M., Dyer, E. E., Genovesi, P., Hulme, P. E., Jeschke, J. M., Pagad, S., Pyšek, P., van Kleunen, M., Winter, M., Ansong, M., Arianoutsou, M., Bacher, S., Blasius, B., Brockerhoff, E. G., Brundu, G., Capinha, C., Causton, C. E., Celesti-Grapow, L., Dawson, W., Dullinger, S., Economo, E. P., Fuentes, N., Guénard, B., Jäger, H., Kartesz, J., Kenis, M., Kühn, I., Lenzner, B., Liebhold, A. M., Mosena, A., Moser, D., Nentwig, W., Nishino, M., Pearman, D., Pergl, J., Rabitsch, W., Rojas-Sandoval, J., Roques, A., Rorke, S., Rossinelli, S., Roy, H. E., Scalera, R., Schindler, S., Štajerová, K., Tokarska-Guzik, B., Walker, K., Ward, D. F., Yamanaka, T., & Essl, F.
- Affiliations
- University of Vienna (AT)
- Zoological Society of London (GB)
- Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (IT)
- Lincoln University (NZ)
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (DE)
- University of Auckland (NZ)
- Czech Academy of Sciences (CZ)
- Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, 78457 Konstanz, Germany;
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE)
- Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (GH)
- Department of Ecology and Systematics, Faculty of Biology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 15784 Athens, Greece;
- University of Fribourg (CH)
- Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg (DE)
- Scion (NZ)
- University of Sassari (IT)
- Universidade do Porto (PT)
- Charles Darwin Foundation (EC)
- Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University, 00185 Rome, Italy;
- Durham University (GB)
- Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (JP)
- University of Concepción (CL)
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China;
- The Biota of North America Program (US)
- CABI Switzerland (CH)
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (DE)
- US Forest Service (US)
- Bielefeld University (DE)
- University of Bern (CH)
- Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland (GB)
- Environment Agency Austria (AT)
- Department of Botany, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013;
- Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, UR 0633, Zoologie Forestière, 45075 Orléans, France;
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
- Invasive Species Specialist Group, Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 00144 Rome, Italy;
- Department of Botany and Nature Protection, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Silesia, 40-032 Katowice, Poland;
- National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (JP)
- ORCID
- Seebens, Hanno
- Blackburn, Tim M.
- Dyer, Ellie E.
- Genovesi, Piero
- Hulme, Philip E.
- Jeschke, Jonathan M.
- Pyšek, Petr
- Winter, Marten
- Ansong, Michael
- Bacher, Sven
- Blasius, Bernd
- Brockerhoff, Eckehard G.
- Brundu, Giuseppe
- Capinha, César
- Causton, Charlotte E.
- Dawson, Wayne
- Dullinger, Stefan
- Economo, Evan P.
- Fuentes, Nicol
- Jäger, Heinke
- Kenis, Marc
- Kühn, Ingolf
- Lenzner, Bernd
- Liebhold, Andrew M.
- Mosena, Alexander
- Moser, Dietmar
- Nentwig, Wolfgang
- Pergl, Jan
- Rabitsch, Wolfgang
- Roy, Helen E.
- Schindler, Stefan
- Štajerová, Kateřina
- Walker, Kevin
- Ward, Darren F.
- Yamanaka, Takehiko
- Essl, Franz
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2018-02-05
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- E2264-E2273
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC5877962
- OpenAlex
- W2786626581
- Cited by
- 692
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 73 · 2025: 76 · 2024: 92 · 2023: 91 · 2022: 91 · 2021: 102 · 2020: 76 · 2019: 62 · 2018: 29
- FWCI
- 50.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion)
- Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UnissResearch (Università degli Studi di Sassari) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- BORIS (University Library Bern) (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion)
- Institutional Repositories DataBase (IRDB) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- IRIS Research product catalog (Sapienza University of Rome) (submittedVersion)
- KOPS (University of Konstanz) (submittedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Lincoln University Research Archive (Lincoln University) (submittedVersion)
- SUNScholar (Stellenbosch University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SE 1891/2-1, JE 288/9-1, KL 1866/9-1, FZT 118)
- Austrian Science Fund (I2096-B16)
- European Cooperation in Science and Technology (TD1209)
- Fundación Charles Darwin (2160)
- The Czech Academy of Sciences (RVO 67985939)
- Czech Science Foundation (14-36079G, P505/11/1112)
- Scion (CO4X1104)
- Polish National Science Centre (.)
- Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (SFRH/BPD/84422/20, GHTM - UID/Multi/04413/2013)
- Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico (3120125)
- Leverhulme Trust (RF/2/RFG/2010/0016)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (The Americas as Space of Entanglements)
- Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (.)
- National Landcare Programme (Managing Invasives)
- King Saud University Distinguished Scientist Research Fellowship (.)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine Ecology and Invasive Species
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Keywords
- invasive species, species pool, first record, biosecurity, trade networks, species introduction pathways, environmental change, risk assessment
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Models, Biological, Population Dynamics, Ecosystem, Biodiversity, History, 16th Century, History, 17th Century, History, 18th Century, History, 19th Century, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Introduced Species
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
