Economic evaluation of sea-level rise adaptation strongly influenced by hydrodynamic feedbacks
Open accessAbstract
Significance: As sea levels rise, coastal cities will rely on shoreline protection strategies such as levees and seawalls to mitigate flooding. Although these strategies provide local flood-reduction benefits, they can increase inundation along other shorelines within the same estuary or bay. Using hydrodynamic and economic models, we quantify previously unmeasured regional economic damages (up to $723 million per flood event) that result from the protection of individual shoreline segments in San Francisco Bay, CA. We also highlight and quantify opportunities to alleviate regional flood damage through strategic floodwater storage in low-lying areas. Integrating the findings into coordinated planning efforts that account for the regional impacts of local shoreline actions could provide opportunities to reduce shared risk in coastal regions globally.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Low-income renters of color are more likely to live in housing that is older, substandard, and less maintained; these quality issues increase the risk of structural collapse and damage to people and properties during extreme weather events.
“In addition to the environmental effects of the construction materials, low-income renters of color are more likely to live in housing that is older, substandard, and less maintained; these quality issues increase the risk of structural collapse and damage to people and properties during extreme weather events.[175][176][177][178][179]”
From NPCC4: Advancing climate justice in climate adaptation strategies for New York City (2024) · cites this paper as [175]
The Discussion describes flooding impacts on BIPOC residents and notes that they often have fewer resources to prepare for and recover from flooding. Materials and Methods > Economic Damages estimates repair costs for flooded buildings. Neither section addresses whether low-income renters of color live in older or less-maintained housing, or whether those housing conditions increase structural-collapse risk; searches for those terms found no such passage. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Pigou, A. C., & Aslanbeigui, N. (1933) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2224491 · Cited by 5,142 · see citing works
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., & Nicholls, R. J. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0118571 · Cited by 2,865 · see citing works
McGranahan, G., Balk, D. L., & Anderson, B. (2007) · Environment and Urbanization · doi:10.1177/0956247807076960 · Cited by 2,623 · see citing works
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., & Levermann, A. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1222469111 · Cited by 1,461 · see citing works
New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding
Kulp, S. A., & Strauss, B. H. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z · Cited by 1,288 · see citing works
WorldPop, open data for spatial demography
Tatem, A. J. (2017) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.4 · Cited by 1,182 · see citing works
Race, Ethnicity and Disasters in the United States: A Review of the Literature
Fothergill, A., Maestas, E. G. M., & Darlington, J. D. (1999) · Disasters · doi:10.1111/1467-7717.00111 · Cited by 731 · see citing works
Valuing ecosystem services as productive inputs
Barbier, E. B. (2006) · Economic Policy · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0327.2007.00174.x · Cited by 652 · see citing works
An open resource for transdiagnostic research in pediatric mental health and learning disorders
Alexander, L. M., Escalera, J., Ai, L., Andreotti, C., Febre, K., Mangone, A., Potler, N. V., Langer, N., Alexander, A., Kovacs, M., et al. (2017) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.181 · Cited by 652 · see citing works
Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States
Hauer, M. E., Evans, J., & Mishra, D. R. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2961 · Cited by 509 · see citing works
Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States
Sweet, W., Kopp, R. E., Weaver, C. P., Obeysekera, J. T. B., Horton, R., Thieler, E. R., & Zervas, C. E. (2017) · University of North Texas Digital Library (University of North Texas) · doi:10.7289/v5/tr-nos-coops-083 · Cited by 460 · see citing works
World Economic Forum: Global Risks Report 2019
(2019) · Computer Fraud & Security · doi:10.1016/s1361-3723(19)30016-8 · Cited by 445 · see citing works
THE LEVEE LOVE AFFAIR: A STORMY RELATIONSHIP? 1
Tobin, G. A. (1995) · JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association · doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb04025.x · Cited by 307 · see citing works
Dürr, H. H., Laruelle, G. G., van Kempen, C. M., Slomp, C. P., Meybeck, M., & Middelkoop, H. (2011) · Estuaries and Coasts · doi:10.1007/s12237-011-9381-y · Cited by 274 · see citing works
Arkema, K. K., Griffin, R. M., Maldonado, S., Silver, J. M., Suckale, J., & Guerry, A. D. (2017) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.13322 · Cited by 188 · see citing works
Self-citationEnviroAtlas: A new geospatial tool to foster ecosystem services science and resource management
Pickard, B. R., Daniel, J., Mehaffey, M. H., Jackson, L. E., & Neale, A. (2015) · Ecosystem Services · doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.04.005 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Barnard, P. L., van Ormondt, M., Erikson, L., et al. (2014) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1236-y · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Dynamics of coupled human-landscape systems
Werner, B. T., & McNamara, D. E. (2007) · Geomorphology · doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.04.020 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Neumann, J. E., Emanuel, K., Ravela, S., Ludwig, L. C., Kirshen, P., Bosma, K. F., & Martinich, J. A. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z · Cited by 160 · see citing works
Valuing the storm protection service of estuarine and coastal ecosystems
Barbier, E. B. (2014) · Ecosystem Services · doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.06.010 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
Song, D., Wang, X. H., Zhu, X., et al. (2013) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2013.08.023 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Coupling of Sea Level Rise, Tidal Amplification, and Inundation
Holleman, R. C., & Stacey, M. T. (2014) · Journal of Physical Oceanography · doi:10.1175/jpo-d-13-0214.1 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Risks of sea level rise to disadvantaged communities in the United States
Martinich, J. A., Neumann, J. E., Ludwig, L. C., & Jantarasami, L. (2012) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-011-9356-0 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Bremer, L. L., Auerbach, D. A., Goldstein, J., Vogl, A. L., Shemie, D., Kroeger, T., Nelson, J. L., Benítez, S., Calvache, A., Guimarães, J. L. B., et al. (2016) · Ecosystem Services · doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.12.006 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Impact of sea level rise on tidal range in Chesapeake and Delaware Bays
Lee, S. B., Li, M., & Zhang, F. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1002/2016jc012597 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Levee effects upon flood levels: an empirical assessment
Heine, R. A., & Pinter, N. (2011) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.8261 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Sea Level Rise Impacts on Wastewater Treatment Systems Along the U.S. Coasts
Hummel, M. A., Berry, M. S., & Stacey, M. T. (2018) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2017ef000805 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Self-citationPattern formation, spatial externalities and regulation in coupled economic–ecological systems
Brock, W., & Xepapadeas, A. (2009) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2009.07.003 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
An evolving research agenda for human–coastal systems
Lazarus, E. D., Ellis, M. A., Murray, A. B., & Hall, D. M. (2015) · Geomorphology · doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.07.043 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Generalizing Ecological Effects of Shoreline Armoring Across Soft Sediment Environments
Dugan, J. E., Emery, K. A., Alber, M., et al. (2017) · Estuaries and Coasts · doi:10.1007/s12237-017-0254-x · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Potential impacts of increased coastal flooding in California due to sea-level rise
Heberger, M. G., Cooley, H., Herrera, P., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0308-1 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Livin’ Large with Levees: Lessons Learned and Lost
Montz, B. E., & Tobin, G. A. (2008) · Natural Hazards Review · doi:10.1061/(asce)1527-6988(2008)9:3(150 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Rising Seas in California — An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science
Griggs, G. (2021) · WORLD SCIENTIFIC eBooks · doi:10.1142/9789811213960_0016 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Economics of Coastal Erosion and Adaptation to Sea Level Rise
Gopalakrishnan, S., Landry, C. E., Smith, M. D., et al. (2016) · Annual Review of Resource Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-100815-095416 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Thaler, T., Priest, S. J., & Fuchs, S. (2015) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0796-z · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Verhoeven, J. T. A., Soons, M. B., Janssen, R., et al. (2008) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01534.x · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Modeling residual flood risk behind levees, Upper Mississippi River, USA
Pinter, N., Huthoff, F., Dierauer, J. R., et al. (2016) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2016.01.003 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Coupled economic‐coastline modeling with suckers and free riders
Williams, Z. C., McNamara, D. E., Smith, M. D., Murray, A. B., & Gopalakrishnan, S. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface · doi:10.1002/jgrf.20066 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Zhu, L., Hu, R., Zhu, H., et al. (2018) · Ocean Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s10236-018-1212-2 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Reddy, S. M. W., Guannel, G., Griffin, R. M., et al. (2015) · Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management · doi:10.1002/ieam.1678 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Influence of Sea Level Rise on the Regional Interdependence of Coastal Infrastructure
Wang, R., Stacey, M. T., Herdman, L., et al. (2018) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2017ef000742 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Gopalakrishnan, S., McNamara, D. E., Smith, M. D., et al. (2016) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-016-0004-8 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
The framework of a coastal hazards model: A tool for predicting the impact of severe storms
Barnard, P. L., O'Reilly, B., van Ormondt, M., et al. (2009) · Antarctica A Keystone in a Changing World · doi:10.3133/ofr20091073 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Tidal dynamics in a changing lagoon: Flooding or not flooding the marginal regions
Lopes, C. L., & Días, J. M. (2015) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2015.05.043 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Papakonstantinou, I., Lee, J., & Madanat, S. M. (2019) · Transportation Research Part B Methodological · doi:10.1016/j.trb.2019.03.012 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Jin, D., Ashton, A. D., & Hoagland, P. (2013) · Natural Resource Modeling · doi:10.1111/nrm.12014 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Interacting Infrastructure Disruptions Due to Environmental Events and Long‐Term Climate Change
Hummel, M. A., Siwe, A. T., Chow, A. C. H., et al. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001652 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Self-citationBusiness Depth-Damage Analysis Procedures
Davis, S. A. (1985) · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Hummel, M. A., Wood, N., Schweikert, A. E., Stacey, M. T., Jones, J. M., Barnard, P. L., & Erikson, L. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1267-5 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Self-citationCompensatory approaches and engagement techniques to gain flood storage in England and Wales
McCarthy, S., Viavattene, C., Sheehan, J., et al. (2018) · Journal of Flood Risk Management · doi:10.1111/jfr3.12336 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Hummel, M. A., & Stacey, M. T. (2020) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1029/2020jc016705 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationHold the line: Modeling private coastal adaptation through shoreline armoring decisions
Beasley, W. J., & Dundas, S. J. (2020) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102397 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Dundas, S. J., & Lewis, D. J. (2020) · Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · doi:10.1086/708092 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
San Francisco Bay Shore Inventory: Mapping for Sea Level Rise Planning
Doehring, C., Beagle, J., Lowe, J., et al. (2016) · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Hummel, M. A., Stacey, M. T., Madant, S., et al. (2018) · AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- [65]R. Griffin, M. Hummel, K. Arkema, A. Guerry, Economic evaluation of sea-level rise adaptation strongly influenced by hydrodynamic feedbacks: Dataset 1. Dryad. 10.5061/dryad.2z34tmpmb. Deposited 24 June 2021. PMC8307291 34253614 · DOI
- [66]R. Griffin, M. Hummel, K. Arkema, A. Guerry, Economic evaluation of sea-level rise adaptation strongly influenced by hydrodynamic feedbacks: Dataset 2. Dryad. 10.5061/dryad.g79cnp5pt. Deposited 24 June 2021. PMC8307291 34253614 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
NPCC4: Advancing climate justice in climate adaptation strategies for New York City
Foster, S. R., Baptista, A., Nguyen, K. H., Tchen, J., Tedesco, M., & Leichenko, R. (2024) · Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1111/nyas.15148 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“219,220,222 Research grounded in specific cities and communities, as well as news reports, demonstrate how local contexts and histories can moderate these general patterns.”
- Authors
- Hummel, M. A., Griffin, R., Arkema, K., & Guerry, A. D.
- Affiliations
- The University of Texas at Arlington (US)
- University of Massachusetts Dartmouth (US)
- University of Washington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Hummel, Michelle A.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2021-07-12
- Volume
- 118
- Issue
- 29
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC8307291
- OpenAlex
- W3181574594
- Cited by
- 57
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 2
- FWCI
- 4.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1541181)
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (N/A)
- Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse (N/A)
- DOC | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (N/A)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Coastal and Marine Management
- Keywords
- sea level rise adaptation, coastal flood protection, flood storage, San Francisco Bay
- MeSH terms
- Sea Level Rise, Cost-Benefit Analysis, San Francisco, Models, Economic, Floods, Hydrodynamics, Bays, Estuaries
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
