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Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations

Savage, Leonard J.·1971·Journal of the American Statistical Association
DOI 10.1080/01621459.1971.10482346
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Abstract

Proper scoring rules, i.e., devices of a certain class for eliciting a person's probabilities and other expectations, are studied, mainly theoretically but with some speculations about application. The relation of proper scoring rules to other economic devices and to the foundations of the personalistic theory of probability is brought out. The implications of various restrictions, especially symmetry restrictions, on scoring rules is explored, usually with a minimum of regularity hypothesis.

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Citations

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Show all 3 references

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Metadata

Authors
Savage, L. J.
Venue
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
1971-12
Volume
66
Issue
336
Pages
783-801
ISSN
  • 0162-1459 (ISSN-L)
  • 1537-274X
DOI
10.1080/01621459.1971.10482346
OpenAlex
W1998274472
Cited by
1,226
References
3
FWCI
7.24
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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Savage, L. J. (1971). Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations. Journal of the American Statistical Association. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1971.10482346

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