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Cited by 441Crime Patterns and InterventionsPolicing Practices and PerceptionsCriminal Justice and Penology

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 55 of the 55 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing

Open access
Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Malinowski, Sean, Johnson, Mark, Tita, G. E., Bertozzi, Andrea L., Brantingham, P. J.·2015·Journal of the American Statistical Association
DOI 10.1080/01621459.2015.1077710
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Abstract

The concentration of police resources in stable crime hotspots has proven effective in reducing crime, but the extent to which police can disrupt dynamically changing crime hotspots is unknown. Police must be able to anticipate the future location of dynamic hotspots to disrupt them. Here we report results of two randomized controlled trials of near real-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) crime forecasting, one trial within three divisions of the Los Angeles Police Department and the other trial within two divisions of the Kent Police Department (United Kingdom). We investigate the extent to which (i) ETAS models of short-term crime risk outperform existing best practice of hotspot maps produced by dedicated crime analysts, (ii) police officers in the field can dynamically patrol predicted hotspots given limited resources, and (iii) crime can be reduced by predictive policing algorithms under realistic law enforcement resource constraints. While previous hotspot policing experiments fix treatment and control hotspots throughout the experimental period, we use a novel experimental design to allow treatment and control hotspots to change dynamically over the course of the experiment. Our results show that ETAS models predict 1.4–2.2 times as much crime compared to a dedicated crime analyst using existing criminal intelligence and hotspot mapping practice. Police patrols using ETAS forecasts led to an average 7.4% reduction in crime volume as a function of patrol time, whereas patrols based upon analyst predictions showed no significant effect. Dynamic police patrol in response to ETAS crime forecasts can disrupt opportunities for crime and lead to real crime reductions.

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Show all 54 references

Research works printed but not linked: 10

  1. Burges C. J.C., 2010, Learning, 11, 23
  2. Eck J.E., 2007, Crime Prevention Studies, 21, 225
  3. Johnson S.D., 2007, Prospective Crime Mapping in Operational Context: Final Report
  4. Kirk R.E., 1982, Experimental Design
  5. Lewis E., 2011, Proceedings of the 2011 Joint Statistical Meetings, 1
  6. National Centre for Policing Excellence, 2005, Guidance on the National Intelligence Model
  7. O’Shea T.C., 2003, Crime Analysis in America: Findings and Recommendations
  8. Reaves B.A., 2010, Local Police Departments, 2007
  9. Weir R., 2007, The Use of Geographic Information Systems by Crime Analysts in England and Wales
  10. Weisburd D., 2008, Ideas in American Policing, 9, 1

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Metadata

Authors
Mohler, G. O., Short, M. B., Malinowski, S., Johnson, M., Tita, G. E., Bertozzi, A. L., & Brantingham, P. J.
Affiliations
Santa Clara University (US)
ORCID
Venue
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2015-10-02
Volume
110
Issue
512
Pages
1399-1411
ISSN
  • 0162-1459 (ISSN-L)
  • 1537-274X
DOI
10.1080/01621459.2015.1077710
OpenAlex
W2232870322
Cited by
381
References
54
Citations by year
2026: 39 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 67 · 2019: 44 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 1
FWCI
69.65
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of the American Statistical Association (publishedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (0968309, 1343123)
  • Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (W911NF‐11‐1‐0332, FA9550-10-1-0569)
  • Office of Naval Research (N000141210838, FA9550)
  • Air Force Office of Scientific Research (FA9550-, FA9550-10-1-, FA9550-10-1-0569)
  • Army Research Office (W911NF‐11‐1‐0332, W911NF, W911NF-11)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
  • Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
Keywords
predictive policing, epidemic-type aftershock sequence, crime prediction, crime hotspots, police patrol, crime reduction, hotspot mapping, criminal intelligence

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