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Smoothing Parameter and Model Selection for General Smooth Models

Open access
Wood, Simon N., Pya, Natalya, Säfken, Benjamin·2016·Journal of the American Statistical Association

Abstract

This article discusses a general framework for smoothing parameter estimation for models with regular likelihoods constructed in terms of unknown smooth functions of covariates. Gaussian random effects and parametric terms may also be present. By construction the method is numerically stable and convergent, and enables smoothing parameter uncertainty to be quantified. The latter enables us to fix a well known problem with AIC for such models, thereby improving the range of model selection tools available. The smooth functions are represented by reduced rank spline like smoothers, with associated quadratic penalties measuring function smoothness. Model estimation is by penalized likelihood maximization, where the smoothing parameters controlling the extent of penalization are estimated by Laplace approximate marginal likelihood. The methods cover, for example, generalized additive models for nonexponential family responses (e.g., beta, ordered categorical, scaled t distribution, negative binomial and Tweedie distributions), generalized additive models for location scale and shape (e.g., two stage zero inflation models, and Gaussian location-scale models), Cox proportional hazards models and multivariate additive models. The framework reduces the implementation of new model classes to the coding of some standard derivatives of the log-likelihood. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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Metadata

Authors
Wood, S. N., Pya, N., & Säfken, B.
Venue
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Published
2016-10-01
Volume
111
Issue
516
Pages
1548-1563
ISSN
  • 0162-1459 (ISSN-L)
  • 1537-274X
OpenAlex
W2593643174
Cited by
1,312
References
3
FWCI
49.02
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
hybrid

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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.