Cited by 106COVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Prevention and ImpactCOVID-19 Pandemic Impacts

All things equal? Heterogeneity in policy effectiveness against COVID-19 spread in chile

Open access
Bennett, Magdalena·2021·World Development

Abstract

Several variables and practices affect the evolution and geographic spread of COVID-19. Some of these variables pertain to policy measures such as social distancing, quarantines for specific areas, and testing availability. In this paper, I analyze the effect that lockdown and testing policies had on new contagions in Chile, especially focusing on potential heterogeneity given by population characteristics. Leveraging a natural experiment in the determination of early quarantines, I use an Augmented Synthetic Control Method to build counterfactuals for high and lower-income areas that experienced a lockdown during the first two months of the pandemic. I find substantial differences in the impact that quarantine policies had for different populations: While lockdowns were effective in containing and reducing new cases of COVID-19 in higher-income municipalities, I find no significant effect of this measure for lower-income areas. To further explain these results, I test for difference in mobility during quarantine for high and lower-income municipalities, as well as delays in test results and testing availability. These findings are consistent with previous results, showing that differences in the effectiveness of lockdowns could be partially attributed to heterogeneity in quarantine compliance in terms of mobility, as well as differential testing availability for higher and lower-income areas.

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  • The mobility result is consistent with analyses of New York City neighborhoods and with findings from other studies conducted in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and mobility metrics.

    “Our result is consistent with analyses of New York City neighborhoods (11) and with findings from other studies conducted in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and mobility metrics (12–14).”
  • Recent studies in Chile have suggested a link between SES and the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as stay-at-home orders.

    “In Chile, recent studies have suggested a link between SES and the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as stay-at-home orders (12, 13, 29).”
  • The study's results are consistent with other studies in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and movement measurements.

    “Although Facebook mobility data can be biased in this way, our results are consistent with other studies in Santiago that used different socioeconomic and movement measurements [see (12–14) and supplementary materials].”

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Authors
Bennett, M.
Affiliations
The University of Texas at Austin (US)
Corresponding author
Bennett, Magdalena
Venue
World Development
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2021-01
Volume
137
Pages
105208
ISSN
0305-750X (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W3088727739
Cited by
106
References
18
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 33 · 2020: 3
FWCI
3.54
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • World Development (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, lockdown policy, quarantine policy, policy effectiveness, income heterogeneity, social distancing, Chile, municipalities, natural experiment

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