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Cited by 10Labor market dynamics and wage inequalityDigital Economy and Work TransformationImpact of AI and Big Data on Business and Society

Assessing early labour market effects of generative AI: evidence from population data

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Kauhanen, Antti, Rouvinen, Petri·2026·Applied Economics Letters
DOI 10.1080/13504851.2025.2513973
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Abstract

We use data covering all wage earners from Finland to study the impact of generative artificial intelligence (GAI) on employment and wages for 2 years after the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. Our synthetic difference-in-differences estimates indicate no statistically significant changes in wages or employment levels between more- and less-exposed occupations. The results are qualitatively similar when comparing more- and less-exposed occupations within occupational groups. These findings concerning Finland contrast with some previous studies on online labour markets but align more closely with research using nationally representative data. Interpreting these results through a widely used theoretical framework suggests that GAI may both complement and substitute human labour in the short term, potentially increasing productivity and value creation in some tasks and replacing humans in others.

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Crossref · 10.1080/13504851.2025.2513973

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16 of 16 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • Kauhanen and Rouvinen (2025, 2026) find no statistically significant overall or seniority-specific effects in Finnish population data.

    “By contrast, Kauhanen andRouvinen (2025, 2026) find no statistically significant overall or seniority-specific effects in Finnish population data.”

    From Labor Market Consequences of Generative AI: Early Evidence from Norway (2026) · cites this paper as Kauhanen and Rouvinen, 2025

  • Kauhanen and Rouvinen (2025, 2026) find no statistically significant overall or seniority-specific effects in Finnish population data.

    “By contrast, Kauhanen andRouvinen (2025, 2026) find no statistically significant overall or seniority-specific effects in Finnish population data.”

    From Labor Market Consequences of Generative AI: Early Evidence from Norway (2026) · cites this paper as Kauhanen and Rouvinen, 2026

  • In the absence of firm-level adoption data for GenAI, and following the related literature, we treat the public release of ChatGPT in November 2022 as an availability shock for Generative AI tools.

    “In the absence of firm-level adoption data for GenAI, and following the related literature (Brynjolfsson, Chandar, & Chen, 2025;Humlum & Vestergaard, 2025;Kauhanen & Rouvinen, 2026;Lodefalk et al., 2026), we treat the public release of ChatGPT in November 2022 as an availability shock for Generative AI tools.”

    From Labor Market Consequences of Generative AI: Early Evidence from Norway (2026) · cites this paper as Kauhanen & Rouvinen, 2026

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Authors
Kauhanen, A., & Rouvinen, P.
Affiliations
  • Aalto University (FI)
  • Etla Economic Research
Corresponding author
Kauhanen, Antti
ORCID
Venue
Applied Economics Letters
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2025-06-10
Volume
33
Issue
18
Pages
3471-3474
ISSN
  • 1350-4851 (ISSN-L)
  • 1466-4291
DOI
10.1080/13504851.2025.2513973
OpenAlex
W4411219823
Cited by
6
References
16
Citations by year
2026: 5 · 2025: 1
FWCI
5.53
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Applied Economics Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Aaltodoc (Aalto University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders
TT foundation
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Digital Economy and Work Transformation
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Impact of AI and Big Data on Business and Society
Keywords
generative AI, ChatGPT, labour market effects, wages, employment, occupational exposure, labor productivity, Finland

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