Winners and losers of generative AI: Early Evidence of Shifts in Freelancer Demand
Open accessAbstract
We examine how ChatGPT has changed the demand for freelancers in jobs where generative AI tools can act as substitutes or complements to human labor. Using BERTopic we partition job postings from a leading online freelancing platform into 116 fine-grained skill clusters and with GPT-4o we classify them as substitutable, complementary or unaffected by LLMs . Our analysis reveals that labor demand increased after the launch of ChatGPT, but only in skill clusters that were complementary to or unaffected by the AI tool. In contrast, demand for substitutable skills, such as writing and translation, decreased by 20–50% relative to the counterfactual trend, with the sharpest decline observed for short-term (1-3 week) jobs. Within complementary skill clusters, the results are mixed: demand for machine learning programming grew by 24%, and demand for AI-powered chatbot development nearly tripled, while demand for novice workers declined in general. This result suggests a shift toward more specialized expertise for freelancers rather than uniform growth across all complementary areas.
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BERTopic outperforms LDA, co-word analysis, and STM in interpretability, scalability, and flexibility, and has recently demonstrated superior empirical performance.
“By contrast, BERTopic-leveraging deep semantic understanding, robustness to short texts, and a highly automated pipeline-outperforms LDA, co-word analysis, and STM in interpretability, scalability, and flexibility, and has recently demonstrated superior empirical performance (Tang et al., 2024;Teutloff et al., 2025).”
From Do Research Topics and Abstract Readability Affect Citation Impact in Leading Finance Journals? (2025) · cites this paper as Teutloff et al., 2025
Section 2.3 (p. 5) says BERTopic can capture semantic overlap that skill co-occurrence methods may miss, and that its cluster labels help interpret the results. The authors also found their clusters intuitively meaningful. The paper does not establish that BERTopic outperforms LDA, co-word analysis, and STM across interpretability, scalability, and flexibility, or demonstrate superior empirical performance against those methods. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredOver time, the uneven exposure of occupations to LLM and other emerging AI systems may contribute to labor market inequities and health disparities.
“Over time, the uneven exposure of occupations have to LLM and other emerging AI systems may contribute to labor market inequities and health disparities (18, 42).”
From Large language model exposure and precarious occupations: Unpacking relationships in the Canadian labor force (2026) · cites this paper as [42]
The discussion of findings (p. 3) says AI can create labor-market winners and losers depending on workers’ skills, supporting the claim of uneven labor-market effects. The conclusion (p. 17) says long-term effects remain to be studied. The passages do not address health disparities, so that part of the claim is unsupported by this source. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredEarly studies on online platforms for freelancers and vacancy postings find substantial negative effects of GenAI on employment and remuneration.
“Early studies on online platforms for freelancers and vacancy postings find substantial negative effects of GenAI on employment and remuneration (Hui, Reshef, & Zhou, 2024;Teeselink, 2025;Teutloff et al., 2025).”
From Labor Market Consequences of Generative AI: Early Evidence from Norway (2026) · cites this paper as Teutloff et al., 2025
Case studies point to notable effects on online labor platforms.
“case studies indicate notable effects on online labor market platforms”
From Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI (2025) · cites this paper as Teutloff et al., 2025
Teutloff et al. (2025) report that demand for substitutable freelance services such as writing and translation declined by 20-50% after ChatGPT.
“For example, Teutloff et al. (2025) report that demand for substitutable freelance services, such as writing and translation, declined by 20-50% after ChatGPT.”
From Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI (2025) · cites this paper as Teutloff et al. (2025)
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Welfare State Deservingness in the Era of Mass Higher Education
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- Authors
- Teutloff, O., Einsiedler, J., Kässi, O., Braesemann, F., Mishkin, P., & del Rio-Chanona, R. M.
- Affiliations
- University of Copenhagen (DK)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2025-07
- Volume
- 235
- Pages
- 106845
- ISSN
- 0167-2681 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4406893601
- Cited by
- 39
- References
- 69
- Citations by year
- 2026: 28 · 2025: 11
- FWCI
- 67.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- James S McDonnell Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Digital Economy and Work Transformation
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
- Keywords
- generative AI, ChatGPT, freelancers, labor demand, skill complementarity, skill substitution, job advertisements, freelancing platforms, chatbot development, novice workers
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