Polarisation and Electoral Realignment: The Case of the Right-Wing Parties in Spain

Abstract

The article analyses the consequences of elite polarisation at the mass level. We study the electoral re-alignment within the right-wing Spanish electorate in recent years, whereby support for the long-predominant Partido Popular has been eroded dramatically to the benefit of new challengers. Measuring ideological polarisation at the party system level and at the individual level, we show how the polarising strategy implemented by the liberal Ciudadanos – and imitated by PP – to gain support from the right-wing electorate paved the way for a massive transfer of conservative voters to the radical-right Vox. The results provide counter-intuitive evidence about the electoral effects of elite polarisation: those individuals who perceived party polarisation less tended to vote more for the radical right party, while those who perceived greater polarisation among parties were more likely to vote for moderate forces.