The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels.
Open accessAbstract
This article analyses the trends in primary demand for fossil fuels and renewables, comparing regions with large and small domestic fossil fuel reserves. We focus on countries that hold 80% of global fossil fuel reserves and compare them with key countries that have meagre fossil fuel reserves. We show that those countries with large domestic fossil fuel reserves have experienced a large increase in primary energy demand from fossil fuels, but only a moderate or no increase in primary energy from renewables, and in particular from non-hydro renewable energy sources (NHRES), which are assumed to represent the cornerstone of the future transformation of the global energy system. This implies a tremendous threat to climate change mitigation, with only two principal mitigation options for fossil-fuel-rich economies if there is to be compliance with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement: (1) leave the fossil fuels in the ground; and (2) apply carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Combinations of these two options to exploit their respective possibilities synergistically will require strong initiatives and incentives to transform a certain amount of the domestic fossil fuel reserves (including the associated infrastructure) into stranded assets and to create an extensive CCS infrastructure. Our conclusion is that immediate and disruptive changes to the use of fossil fuels and investments in non-carbon-emitting technologies are required if global warming is to be limited to well below 2°C. Collective actions along value chains in business to divert from fossil fuels may be a feasible strategy.Key policy insights The main obstacle to compliance with any reasonable warming target is the abundance of fossil fuels, which has maintained and increased momentum towards new fossil-fuelled processes.So far, there has been no increase in the share of NHRES in total global primary energy demand, with a clear decline in the NHRES share in India and China.There is an immediate need for the global community to develop fossil fuel strategies and policies.Policies must account for the global trade flow of products that typically occurs from the newly industrialized fossil fuel-rich countries to the developed countries.
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Fossil fuels account for around 80% of the world's energy demand.
“To date, fossil fuels account for around 80% of the world’s energy demand [2]”
From The potential of biofuels from first to fourth generation (2023) · cites this paper as [2]
Conventional fossil fuel energy resources such as coal, natural gas and oil are limited in quantity and will eventually be depleted at current global production rates, with estimated reserve-to-production lifetimes of approximately 139, 48.8 and 53.5 additional years, respectively.
“Conventional fossil fuel energy resources such as coal, natural gas and oil are limited in quantity and will eventually be depleted at current global production rates, with estimated reserve-to-production lifetimes of approximately 139, 48.8 and 53.5 additional years, respectively [77, 165].”
From Biofuel production: exploring renewable energy solutions for a greener future (2024) · cites this paper as [77]
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- Authors
- Johnsson, F., Kjärstad, J., & Rootzén, J.
- Affiliations
- Chalmers University of Technology (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Johnsson, Filip
- Venue
- Climate Policy
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2018-06-19
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 258-274
- ISSN
- 1469-3062 (ISSN-L)
- 1752-7457
- OpenAlex
- W2808752493
- Cited by
- 543
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 60 · 2025: 90 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 93 · 2022: 87 · 2021: 69 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 10
- FWCI
- 42.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc-nd
- Locations
- Climate Policy (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Chalmers Research (Chalmers University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Pathways to Sustainable European Energy Systems, The North European Power Perspectives, and Mistra Carbon Exit
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Global Energy and Sustainability Research
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Keywords
- fossil fuel reserves, primary energy demand, renewable energy, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, carbon capture and storage, stranded assets, energy transition, global energy system
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