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Cited by 2Migration and Labor DynamicsMigration, Refugees, and IntegrationEconomic Growth and Productivity

Macroeconomic Impacts of Immigration in the Canadian Atlantic Region: An Empirical Analysis Using the FOCUS Model

Open access
Dungan, Peter, Fang, Tony, Gunderson, Morley, Murphy, Steve·2026·Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies
DOI 10.1080/15562948.2024.2335952
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Abstract

We simulate the impact of an increase in immigration into the Atlantic Provinces based on the FOCUS macro-econometric model at the University of Toronto. That national model was adapted to reflect the regional dimensions of the Atlantic Provinces. We find robust evidence of positive outcomes for the Atlantic region so long as it is part of a broader increase in immigration for the country as a whole. The positive outcome encompasses higher GDP and GDP per capita, higher consumption, and improved government fiscal balances at both the federal and provincial levels that could in turn be used for tax reductions or the enhancement of government services. These benefits could be enhanced further by carefully targeting new immigrants for needed skills and for their likelihood of remaining in the Atlantic region.

Verified 2026-10-22 · 1 reference not checked yet

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Using the University of Toronto FOCUS macro-econometric model adapted to Atlantic Canada, the authors simulate an extra 10,000 net immigrants per year to the Atlantic provinces and find positive macroeconomic and fiscal outcomes when the increase is part of a nationwide immigration rise. An "Atlantic-only" increase, by contrast, produces rising unemployment, lower GDP per capita, and worsened provincial balances.

Key findings

  • With a nationwide immigration increase and new immigrants assumed to earn/produce at 0.909 of the established population (Table 1), by year ten Atlantic population is up 3.6%, employment up 4.41%, real GDP up 4.22%, and real GDP per capita up 0.6%; the unemployment rate is essentially unchanged (0.00 percentage points in 2032).
  • Fiscal balances improve in the nationwide case: by 2032 the federal balance is up $1,608 million and the provincial balance up $619 million, while the local balance is roughly unchanged (−$4 million). Net imports from the rest of Canada rise by $588 million (real 2012 dollars) against a $6.5 billion real GDP increase.
  • If new immigrants are assumed to have the same earnings/productivity as the base-case population (Table 2), the year-ten GDP impact rises to 4.64% and GDP per capita to 1.01%, with federal and provincial balances up $1,646 million and $797 million respectively.
  • In the "Atlantic-only" simulation (Table 3), employment rises only 2.1% by year ten while the labour force rises 4.4%, leaving the unemployment rate over 2 percentage points above base; real GDP per capita falls 2.15% and the provincial government balance worsens by $790 million (federal balance still improves by $193 million).

Methods

  • Simulation study using the FOCUS macro-econometric model (version 21C), with parameters and inputs recalibrated to reflect the Atlantic provinces (e.g., lower GDP per employee, higher import propensities, Atlantic-specific participation, unemployment, and EI-use rates).
  • Base case dated October 2021, simulations run 2023–2032; the central case adds 10,000 net immigrants per year to the Atlantic provinces, equivalent to just over 155,000 nationally (Atlantic share ≈ 6.45% of Canada's population).
  • Three simulations: (1) Atlantic increase with a proportional national increase and a Taylor-rule monetary response; (2) same but immigrants assumed equally productive as the base-case population; (3) Atlantic-only increase with only a small monetary response. Results are reported as percentage changes and level changes for GDP, employment, population, prices, wages, productivity, and government revenues/balances.

Limitations

  • Stated: the 10,000-per-year figure is "effectively arbitrary," though results are described as largely linear and scalable; the model cannot quantify the benefits of targeting immigrants for needed skills or retention; the base case predates the post-October-2021 inflation surge, though the authors argue this is unlikely to change impacts materially.
  • Stated: the "Atlantic-only" case depends on assumptions about wage responsiveness (a less responsive wage equation than the national model, following the FOCUS-Ontario model), and an alternative more-responsive wage equation is mentioned as available on request.
  • Evident from the text: the analysis cannot model detailed income-distribution effects (the authors note they "cannot model detailed income impacts"), and the Atlantic-only simulation relies on judgment calls in setting import leakage (30% rather than 33%).

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1080/15562948.2024.2335952

Cites

14 of 15 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 7 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    About 9.2% of new immigrants used EI vs. 16.5% for the established population.

    “using Census data it was determined that about 9.2% of new immigrants used EI vs. 16.5% for the established population.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Macroeconomic Impacts of Immigration in the Canadian Atlantic Region: An Empirical Analysis Using the Focus Model *

    An increase in immigration into the Atlantic provinces, when part of a broader increase in immigration for Canada as a whole, yields positive outcomes for the Atlantic region.

    “We find robust evidence of positive outcomes for the Atlantic region so long as it is part of a broader increase in immigration for the country as a whole.”
    • Also stated in: § 4. Conclusion · boosted
      “the macroeconometric model approach we have used in this study is unequivocal in determining that enhanced immigration yields a positive outcome for the Atlantic region so long as it is part of a broader increase in immigration for the country as a whole.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.
  • Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    With the still-higher GDP impact, the improvement in government balances is further increased.

    “With the still-higher GDP impact, the improvement in government balances is further increased.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.
  • Findingown data
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    New immigrants' participation rates were higher than the participation rates of the established population for the Atlantic region.

    “On the whole these were higher than the participation rates of the established population for the Atlantic region.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Macroeconomic Impacts of Immigration in the Canadian Atlantic Region: An Empirical Analysis Using the Focus Model *

    The positive outcome includes improved government fiscal balances at both the federal and provincial levels in the Atlantic region.

    “The positive outcome encompasses higher GDP and GDP per capita, higher consumption, and improved government fiscal balances at both the federal and provincial levels”
    • Also stated in: § 3. Model Simulation Results: · plain
      “For federal and provincial governments (in the Atlantic region) the impact of the simulation is a steady improvement in balances.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The productivity and earnings of immigrants are slightly above 90% of the non-recent-immigrant workforce in the Atlantic provinces.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.
  • May combine two claims. 24
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 16
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    In the alternative simulation where new immigrants have the same productivity as the base-case population, the impact on GDP in the tenth year is 4.64%, above the 4.41% for employment.

    “The impact on GDP in the tenth year is now 4.64%, and this is above the 4.41% for employment”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    There is a net import leakage from international trade and a very large leakage from trade with the rest of Canada.

    “There is a net import leakage from international trade but, even more important, a very large leakage from trade with the rest of Canada.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    In Table 3, there is a net import leakage of over $600 million real dollars, compared to an increase in total GDP of just over $2 billion real dollars.

    “Note in Table 3 there is a net import leakage of over $600 million real dollars, as compared to an increase in total GDP of just over $2 billion real dollars.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    At the provincial level, expenditures do not rise as much as revenues and there is an improvement in government balances, but not as large as at the federal level.

    “At the provincial level expenditures do not rise as much as revenues and there is an improvement in government balances, but not as large as at the federal level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    There is a gradual reduction in interest rates relative to the base case throughout the simulation period and a corresponding depreciation of the Canada-US dollar exchange rate.

    “Note that there is a gradual reduction in interest rates (relative to the base case) throughout the simulation period and a corresponding depreciation of the Canada-US dollar exchange rate.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    With lower tax take and increased transfer expenditures due to higher unemployment, there is almost no improvement in federal government balances in the Atlantic provinces, and provincial government balances are actually worsened.

    “With lower tax take, and with some increased transfer expenditures due to higher unemployment, there is almost no improvement in federal government balances in the Atlantic provinces, and the provincial government balances are actually worsened.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    There is a large impact from Personal Consumption on real GDP.

    “Reviewing the components of real GDP, we see a large impact from Personal Consumption, as would be expected.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    There is an increase in net imports from the rest of Canada of almost $600 million (real) by the tenth year, compared with a $6.5 billion increase in Atlantic GDP (real), indicating leakage of demand into net interprovincial imports.

    “Note that restraining some of the positive impact on the GDP of the Atlantic provinces is an increase in net imports from the rest of Canada of almost $600 million dollars (in real terms) by the tenth year; this figure should be compared with the $6.5 billion increase in Atlantic GDP in real dollars, indicating the leakage of some demand into net interprovincial imports.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    Alcohol, gasoline and tobacco taxes are higher in the Atlantic region than nationally.

    “as are alcohol, gasoline and tobacco taxes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    Residential investment responds strongly to the growing population and to somewhat lower interest rates, and there are more modest increases in non-residential investment.

    “Residential investment responds strongly to the growing population (and to somewhat lower interest rates) and there are more modest increases in non-residential investment.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    Personal tax receipts are slightly lower in the Atlantic region than nationally.

    “Personal tax receipts are slightly lower”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    Corporate tax receipts at both the federal and provincial level are much lower as a share of GDP in the Atlantic region relative to the country as a whole.

    “corporate tax receipts at both the federal and provincial level are much lower as a share of GDP in the Atlantic region relative to the country as a whole.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    In Table 3, employment is up 2.1% in year 10, the labour force has increased by 4.4%, and the unemployment rate is over 2 percentage points above the base case.

    “As indicated in Table 3, employment is up 2.1% in year 10, but the labour force has increased by 4.4% and the unemployment rate is over 2 percentage points above the base case.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    Real government spending is up, increasing in proportion to population but at less than a 1:1 ratio due to economies of scale.

    “Real government spending is also up as we increase it in proportion to the increase in population (but at less than a 11 ratio as there are 'economies of scale' in government spending covering new population ).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    The enhanced supply of labour has a small negative effect on real wages, which increases the profit share of income and contributes to the increase in non-residential investment.

    “The enhanced supply of labour has a small negative effect on real wages (which is part of what keeps the unemployment rate from rising) and this in turn increases somewhat the profit share of income, which is part of the reason for the increase in non-residential investment.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    Real GDP per capita in the Atlantic provinces is slightly above the base case in all years, and by 0.6% by the tenth year.

    “real GDP per capita is slightly above the base case in all years, and by 0.6% by the tenth year.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The productivity and earnings of immigrants are slightly above 90% of the non-recent-immigrant workforce in the Atlantic provinces.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    For the Atlantic provinces at the end of ten years total population is up 3.6% and the source population is up 3.55%.

    “For the Atlantic provinces at the end of ten years total population is up 3.6% and the source population is up 3.55%.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    Provincial sales taxes are higher in the Atlantic region than nationally.

    “Provincial sales taxes are higher”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    For local governments, increased revenues are largely matched by an increase in expenditures; for the federal government, expenditures actually fall somewhat.

    “For local governments these are largely matched by an increase in expenditures and for the federal government expenditures actually fall somewhat”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    The impact on real GDP in the Atlantic provinces by year ten is 4.22%, which is lower than the impact on employment.

    “Note too that the impact on real GDP by year ten is 4.22% - that is, it is lower than the impact on employment.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The productivity and earnings of immigrants are slightly above 90% of the non-recent-immigrant workforce in the Atlantic provinces.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    EI contributions are higher in the Atlantic region than nationally.

    “while EI contributions are higher”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    GDP per employee is lower in the Atlantic provinces than in Canada as a whole.

    “GDP per employee is lower in the Atlantic provinces than in Canada as a whole”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    Employment in the Atlantic provinces is up 4.41% by year ten, with no change in the aggregate unemployment rate.

    “However, note that employment is up 4.41% (with there being no change in the aggregate unemployment rate).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    As a share of GDP, international exports are somewhat higher for the Atlantic region than for Canada (5%).

    “As a share of GDP, international exports are somewhat higher for the Atlantic region than for Canada (5%)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    The Atlantic provinces have roughly 6.45% of Canada's population.

    “(the Atlantic provinces have roughly 6.45% of Canada's population”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    Imports from the rest of Canada are 33% of Atlantic GDP.

    “and imports are 33%).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    Exports to the rest of Canada are 24% of Atlantic GDP.

    “(Exports to the rest of Canada are 24% of Atlantic GDP”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    Municipal taxes are lower in the Atlantic region than nationally.

    “but municipal taxes are lower.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Findingnone given
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    As a share of GDP, international imports are much higher for the Atlantic region than for Canada (22%).

    “and international imports much higher (22%).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data
    § (Percentage Change unless otherwise indicated)

    Under Table 1 assumptions, an additional 10,000 immigrants per year increases real GDP by 4.22% by 2032.

    “| Real Gross Domestic Product | 0.61 | 0.94 | 1.43 | 1.83 | 2.20 | 2.62 | 2.98 | 3.41 | 3.79 | 4.22 |”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The rest of Canada has a proportional immigration increase.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Immigrants are .909 to non-immigrants in earnings/productivity.
    • The authors state this as an assumption: National immigration rise occurs and interest rate and exchange rate respond.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Macroeconomic Impacts of Immigration in the Canadian Atlantic Region: An Empirical Analysis Using the Focus Model *

    The improved government fiscal balances could be used for tax reductions or the enhancement of government services.

    “that could in turn be used for tax reductions or the enhancement of government services.”
    • Also stated in: § 4. Conclusion · hedged
      “that could in turn be used for tax reductions or the enhancement of government services.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § 3. Model Simulation Results:

    The changes in monetary conditions would have been sufficient to absorb an increase of 10,000 per year in immigration had it been spread evenly across the country, but give nowhere near sufficient stimulus to the Atlantic provinces who need to absorb the entire immigration increase.

    “The changes in monetary conditions would have been sufficient to absorb an increase of this amount in immigration had it been spread evenly across the country, but gives nowhere near sufficient stimulus to the Atlantic provinces who need to absorb the entire immigration increase.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 1. Introduction

    The Atlantic provinces have the highest unemployment rates, lowest wages and greatest labour shortages in Canada.

    “the Atlantic provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick having the highest unemployment rates, lowest wages and greatest labour shortages in Canada (ACOA 2019).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites ACOA 2019

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 1. Introduction

    Immigration can increase growth and productivity through its complementarity with the Canadian-born workforce, reducing labour and skill shortages and fostering innovation and technology adoption.

    “Immigration can also increase growth and productivity through its complementarity with the Canadian-born workforce and thereby reducing labour and skill shortages and fostering innovation and technology adoption (Akbari and Haider 2018; Gu, Hou and Picot 2020; Ostrovsky and Picot 2020).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Akbari and Haider 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Gu, Hou and Picot 2020 source
    • cites Ostrovsky and Picot 2020 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    The base-case interest rates are not as high as they are likely to be as a result of the surge in inflation, but this is unlikely to result in a major change in the simulation impacts.

    “While the base-case interest rates are not as high as they are (temporarily) likely to be as a result of the surge in inflation (in great part due to the invasion of Ukraine and global supply chain constraints due to COVID-19) that occurred following October 2021, this is unlikely to result in a major change in the simulation impacts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § 2. Setting up the Focus Model Simulations

    The model simulation results are largely linear so one could, within limits, scale the amount of immigration up or down and adjust the simulation results in the same proportion.

    “The figure of 10,000 is effectively arbitrary, but the model simulation results are largely linear so one could, within limits, scale the amount of immigration up or down and adjust the simulation results in the same proportion.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 1. Introduction

    Immigrants have higher labour force participation rates, lower unemployment rates, and earn higher labour incomes than nonimmigrants in Canada.

    “immigrants have higher labour force participation rates, lower unemployment rates, and earn higher labour incomes than nonimmigrants (Akbari 2011).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Akbari 2011 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Appendix: Greater Detail on the Model and Simulation Inputs

    Were rates to be higher in the base case, the positive impacts on government balances from the simulations would lead to larger reductions in government interest payments, further magnifying the positive impacts of the simulations.

    “In fact, were rates to be higher in the base case, then the positive impacts on government balances from the simulations would lead to larger reductions in government interest payments, further magnifying the positive impacts of the simulations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
38 of 38

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The productivity and earnings of immigrants are slightly above 90% of the non-recent-immigrant workforce in the Atlantic provinces.

    “We also assume that the productivity and earnings of immigrants are slightly above 90% of the non-recent-immigrant workforce in the Atlantic provinces based on national data of the last ten years.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    There is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.

    “The first two simulations were conducted on the assumption that there is a similar increase in immigration occurring in the rest of Canada.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Monetary conditions are set according to a Taylor rule targeting the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.

    “We have assumed, as was done in the 2010 simulations, a type of 'Taylor rule' whereby monetary conditions are set to target the base-case unemployment rate and the base-case inflation rate.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The rest of Canada has a proportional immigration increase.

    “Assuming that the rest of the country has a proportional immigration increase”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Immigrants are .909 to non-immigrants in earnings/productivity.

    “Assumes Immigrants are .909 to non-immigrants in earnings/productivity”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    National immigration rise occurs and interest rate and exchange rate respond.

    “Assumes national immigration rise - Interest rate and exchange rate respond”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Immigrants are the same as non-immigrants in earnings/productivity.

    “Assumes Immigrants are same as non-immigrants in earnings/productivity”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Immigrants have lower earnings/productivity than non-immigrants.

    “Assumes Immigrants have lower earnings/productivity than non-immigrants”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The simulation is an Atlantic-only immigration rise with a small monetary response.

    “Assumes Atlantic-only immigration rise - Small monetary response”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Government payment mechanisms OAS, GIS and CPP/QPP require roughly a ten-year residency to begin being paid out, so these items do not respond to population changes in the ten-year simulation horizon.

    “a number of government payment mechanisms, including Old Age Security (OAS), the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) and the Canada and Quebec Pensions Plans (CPP/QPP), require roughly a ten-year residency to begin being paid out, so these items, while normally responding to population changes, do not do so in the ten-year simulation horizon.”
10 of 10

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Year-ten employment increase misstated for the Atlantic-only simulation

    Minor

    The text says employment is up 2.1% in year ten, but Table 3 reports 2.31% for 2032. The approximately 2.1% figure appears in the preceding year (2.11% in 2031).

1 of 1

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 9

  1. ACOA. (2019). An exploration of skills and labour shortages in Atlantic Canada. Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency.
  2. Fang, T., et al. (2021). Employer attitudes towards hiring newcomers and international students in the Atlantic Provinces. Harris Centre, Memorial University.
  3. Cornelissen, L. (2021). Profile of immigrants in nursing and health care support occupations. Statistics Canada.
  4. El-Assal, K., & Fields, D. (2018). Canada 2040: No immigration versus more immigration. The Conference Board of Canada.
  5. Emery, H., McDonald, J. T., & Balcom, A. (2017). Temporary residents in New Brunswick and their transition to permanent residency. New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training.
  6. Haan, M., & Prokopenko, E. (2016). Overview of secondary migration of immigrants to Canada. Pathways to Prosperity.
  7. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. (2020). Evaluation of the Atlantic immigration pilot. Statistics Canada Research and Evaluation Branch.
  8. Krugman P. Geography and Trade. MIT Press 1991. P. 2.
  9. van Huystee, M. (2016). Interprovincial mobility: Retention rates and net inflow rates 2008-2013 landings. Statistics Canada Policy Research Division.

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Authors
Dungan, P., Fang, T., Gunderson, M., & Murphy, S.
Affiliations
  • University of Toronto (CA)
  • Memorial University of Newfoundland (CA)
Corresponding author
Fang, Tony
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
2024-04-15
Volume
24
Issue
3
Pages
611-624
ISSN
  • 1556-2948 (ISSN-L)
  • 1556-2956
DOI
10.1080/15562948.2024.2335952
OpenAlex
W4394812766
Semantic Scholar
90f644aaf3c0181d377a45374ead3cb2273dcf98
Cited by
2
References
12
Citations by year
2025: 1 · 2024: 1
FWCI
1.44
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
doi.org/10.1080/policies-text-data-mining (tdm)
Locations
  • Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies (publishedVersion)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China
  • National Social Science Foundation of China
  • Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (890-2020-0051)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration, Refugees, and Integration
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
Keywords
immigration, macroeconomic effects, Atlantic Canada, regional economic impact, GDP per capita, tax cuts, public services, immigrant retention, Canadian immigration policy

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-22.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-22.

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