Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico
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We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.
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In Argentina, an 80% price increase would reduce smoking prevalence by 20% within 30 years.
“in Argentina, it was estimated that an 80% price increase would reduce smoking prevalence by 20% within 30 years.35,36”
From The health and economic burden of smoking in 12 Latin American countries and the potential effect of increasing tobacco taxes: an economic modelling study. (2020) · cites this paper as [35]
The Results section projects that higher cigarette excise taxes would reduce smoking prevalence in Mexico. It does not report an estimate for Argentina or an 80% price increase producing a 20% reduction within 30 years; its stated projection is a 16% reduction by 2053 if excise taxes rise to 70% of the retail price. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn Mexico, the SimSmoke model estimated that increasing excise taxes to 70% of the price could reduce smoking prevalence by 16%.
“In Mexico, the SimSmoke model esti mated that increasing excise taxes to 70% of the price could reduce the smoking prevalence by 16%”
From The health and economic burden of smoking in 12 Latin American countries and the potential effect of increasing tobacco taxes: an economic modelling study. (2020) · cites this paper as [35]
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- Authors
- Fleischer, N. L., Thrasher, J. F., Reynales-Shigematsu, L. M., Cummings, K. M., Meza, R., Zhang, Y., & Levy, D. T.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- University of South Carolina (US)
- Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (MX)
- Medical University of South Carolina (US)
- Georgetown University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Fleischer, Nancy L.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Global Public Health
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2016-02-02
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 830-845
- ISSN
- 1744-1692 (ISSN-L)
- 1744-1706
- PMC
- PMC4970969
- OpenAlex
- W2276502847
- Cited by
- 12
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2025: 5 · 2024: 2 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 1 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 0.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Global Public Health (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Mexican Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (Salud-2007-C01–70032)
- Medical University of South Carolina's Center for Global Health (CGH)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Keywords
- tobacco control, smoking prevalence, smoking-related mortality, cigarette excise tax, smoking bans, tobacco marketing restrictions, tobacco cessation treatment, Mexico
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Female, Health Policy, Humans, Male, Mexico, Middle Aged, Smoking, Prevalence, Young Adult, Tobacco Use
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